Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Ed Mahmoud]

FAIRBANKS - Bitterly cold weather slid over from Canada and settled into Interior Alaska with forecasters saying temperatures could continue to slide to nearly 50 degrees below zero in coming days.



-42º in Fairbanks at 1500Z

[Ed Mahmoud]

Would a temp of 27F really be that spooky for Houston in January? That is still 10 or so degrees above most records for early January. Sounds spookier in Celsius.

GFS 2 meter temps January 13th- killing freeze at DW Hooks, -2.7ºC.


I think my palms and my orange tree could handle that. But it would be spooky, and, two weeks away, it probably won't happen.

Nah, we have upper 20s almost every Winter here in Texas, where we enjoy all four seasons. My pygmy date palm gets some burned foliage when it gets that cold, but always pulls through. It doesn't get frost paper wrapped no matter how cold it is forecast to get because it has some vicious spines on it.

[cajungal]

It just depends on where you live in Tx. Over here in SE Louisiana, I don't know what to wear anymore. we don't have 4 seasons. One day I am in a t-shirt and shorts. the next day I am digging out the jacket again. I truly hate cold weather and yall can all have it. the only time I welcome it if there is any possibility of snow. and that doesn't happen often. If it is just a cold and dry, then I hate it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It just depends on where you live in Tx. Over here in SE Louisiana, I don't know what to wear anymore. we don't have 4 seasons. One day I am in a t-shirt and shorts. the next day I am digging out the jacket again. I truly hate cold weather and yall can all have it. the only time I welcome it if there is any possibility of snow. and that doesn't happen often. If it is just a cold and dry, then I hate it.

I have a tree in my yard, just a little sapling, about 7 feet tall and about 3 inches tall when we moved into my house, now, eight years later, thanks to Miracle Grow tree food, and plenty of watering, it is about 30 feet tall. Every year, starting in November, some of the leaves turn color and drop, and they keep that up until about February. But some leaves stay green, and never drop. It lost about half its leaves in the hurricane, and a few branches, but it still has me out raking every weekend or so. It can't decide if it is Autumn, Winter, or Spring, it appears.

[Portastorm]

FAIRBANKS - Bitterly cold weather slid over from Canada and settled into Interior Alaska with forecasters saying temperatures could continue to slide to nearly 50 degrees below zero in coming days.



-42º in Fairbanks at 1500Z

Certainly something of which to take note but to me, getting excited about minus-40 temps in Alaska is akin to marveling over how warm the Gulf is in August. Yeah the potential is there but without any delivery mechanism, why get excited? Show me a lock-sure McFarland Pattern signature in the Euro and GFS with those Alaska temps and then I'll get my kicking shoes on!

[jinftl]

exactly...as we saw with the extreme siberian cold a few weeks back...its existence doesn't correllate 100% with an arctic invasion across all of the u.s.....arctic airmasses have 'free reign' in siberia and fairbanks in winter....what happens when they approach the mid-latitudes is what can either keep them at bay or open the floodgates...

FAIRBANKS - Bitterly cold weather slid over from Canada and settled into Interior Alaska with forecasters saying temperatures could continue to slide to nearly 50 degrees below zero in coming days.



-42º in Fairbanks at 1500Z

Certainly something of which to take note but to me, getting excited about minus-40 temps in Alaska is akin to marveling over how warm the Gulf is in August. Yeah the potential is there but without any delivery mechanism, why get excited? Show me a lock-sure McFarland Pattern signature in the Euro and GFS with those Alaska temps and then I'll get my kicking shoes on!

[Ed Mahmoud]

FAIRBANKS - Bitterly cold weather slid over from Canada and settled into Interior Alaska with forecasters saying temperatures could continue to slide to nearly 50 degrees below zero in coming days.



-42º in Fairbanks at 1500Z

Certainly something of which to take note but to me, getting excited about minus-40 temps in Alaska is akin to marveling over how warm the Gulf is in August. Yeah the potential is there but without any delivery mechanism, why get excited? Show me a lock-sure McFarland Pattern signature in the Euro and GFS with those Alaska temps and then I'll get my kicking shoes on!

That does remind me of the newer members in one of those "Canadian says storm in Gulf in a week" threads who notice the Gulf is "boiling hot" at 85ºF and how something has to pop, and, of course, more often than not, nothing pops.

But wxman22's link does show an impressive ice storm for Houston, crushing the city under half an inch of icy terror, in just two weeks.

The ten day 0Z Canadian doesn't look all that exciting...

Meanwhile, since this thread doesn't specify where the January frigid air is heading, although snow amounts around NYC look pretty paltry, and should be over before Ryan Seacrest hosts the ball drop during ABC's "Dick Clark's Rockin' New Years", NAM soundings suggest 20 to 30 knot winds, and uncomfortably cool temperatures dropping into the teens, Farenheit. Now, people in Minnesota may laught at a 30 knot wind and temperatures in the upper teens (although since they can't watch outdoor football, maybe I should use Wisconsin people), but New Yorkers aren't built for that kind of cold weather.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Islip, New York has dropped below freezing, and rain has changed back to snow.


Heavy snow and 30ºF at Hyannis Port, where the new NAM shows sustained 30 knot plus winds this evening.

[jinftl]

Wind gusts to 55 mph in NYC tonight!

NWS Forecast for: Manhattan NY
Issued by: National Weather Service New York City/Upton, NY
Last Update: 11:16 am EST Dec 31, 2008

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This Afternoon: Snow and areas of blowing snow, mainly before 4pm. Steady temperature around 29. Windy, with a north wind between 21 and 31 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight: Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a northwest wind 33 to 36 mph decreasing to between 21 and 24 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wind gusts to 55 mph in NYC tonight!

NWS Forecast for: Manhattan NY
Issued by: National Weather Service New York City/Upton, NY
Last Update: 11:16 am EST Dec 31, 2008

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This Afternoon: Snow and areas of blowing snow, mainly before 4pm. Steady temperature around 29. Windy, with a north wind between 21 and 31 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight: Areas of blowing snow before 1am. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a northwest wind 33 to 36 mph decreasing to between 21 and 24 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

993 mb just South of Long Island at the weather buoy.

[jinftl]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1155 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

...WINTER STORM POUNDING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

AT 1150 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT HAD BEEN
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS REACHED 6 TO 7 INCHES IN THE KEENE NH AREA
WITH THIS BAND IN JUST A FEW HOURS.

A SECOND BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR HARTFORD
EASTWARD ACROSS TOLLAND AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT AND PROVIDENCE COUNTY RHODE ISLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE OCCURRING THERE AS WELL. SKYWARN SPOTTERS
REPORTED A CLAP OF THUNDER IN THE HARTFORD AREA AT AROUND 11 AM.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
ISLAND AND THESE MAY ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATE ON THAT ISLAND
BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

WINDS HAD INCREASED TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

$$
FIELD

[Ed Mahmoud]

New European doesn't show anything really cold at my house the next ten days, but does show such an impressive wind storm in the Canadian Maritime provinces next Thursday I had to start a new thread in Global Weather.


http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/animate/catalog/samplers/banner/two_metre_temperature_and_30m_winds!204!North%20America!t2m!pop!od!oper!w_t2m30mw!2008123112!!!step/

[iorange55]

Dallas Noaa Discussion.

GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROF BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY MONDAY AS COLD AIR WILL HAVE
TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. 12Z GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR DFW/MWL AND
SURROUNDING AREAS ON 18Z MONDAY INDICATE A COLD THERMAL PROFILE
SUPPORTING SNOW WITH SATURATED LAYER UP TO 500MB. THE PROBLEM WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION NOW IS ITS HANDLING OF THE LEAD S/W INTO THE
UPPER PLAINS. THERE ARE STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES FROM THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE TRENDED ITS OVERALL SOLUTION COLDER THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL
TROF/SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WHICH COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON MOISTURE RETURN INTO NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
THE POPS AT 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ON
MONDAY TO NEAR 40 DEGREES...KEEPING THE PRECIP ALL RAIN MORE IN
LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY THOUGH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT CAN QUICKLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
FROZEN PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY
TUESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

Eh? Eh? Maybe? Just maybe?

[jinftl]

NWS Miami mentions GFS in latest discussion....

IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SW LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN INTO
THE SE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF THEN LIFTS IT NE OVER THE
MASSIVE CARIBBEAN RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST TWO
WEEKS. THE GFS HOWEVER MERGES THE LOW WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CARVING OUT A STRONGER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES WHICH IN TURN BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. SINCE THIS
IS SO FAR IN THE EXTENDED, DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE MANY CHANGES. IN
FACT, THE GFS HAS A HISTORY OF WEAKENING THESE WINTER TYPE RIDGES
TOO QUICKLY AND IT MAY CHANGE ITS TUNE CLOSER TO THE EMF SOLUTION
AS TIME GOES ON. WE SHALL SEE.

[iorange55]

I will not get excited....I will not get excited.....I will not get excited. I need to put that on tape and listen to it while I sleep.

.MONDAY COULD BE AMONG THE COLDEST
DAYS OF THE SEASON. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE CHANCES
FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AT THE
SFC MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
COOLED TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE EVENT
COMES TO AN END. AT THIS TIME...TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATIONS
AND IMPACTS...BUT NORTH TEXAS RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

25

[Portastorm]

I will not get excited....I will not get excited.....I will not get excited. I need to put that on tape and listen to it while I sleep.

.MONDAY COULD BE AMONG THE COLDEST
DAYS OF THE SEASON. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE THE CHANCES
FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW AT THE
SFC MAY BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
COOLED TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE EVENT
COMES TO AN END. AT THIS TIME...TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATIONS
AND IMPACTS...BUT NORTH TEXAS RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

25

Good luck with that! Let us know how it works out for you.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Bring on the winter weather!!!

[Steve H.]

What we need is for the ridge over the Bering Sea to break down. Right now Interior AK, Fairbanks and east, is still having their bitter cold spell (some record cold) and the ridge keeps re-building. This pattern has to break in order to get this cold air to break loose into western Canada and then southward. The ridge should break down sometime late next week, but that's just a recurring forecast that the AK mets have been saying for 2 weeks now, so we'll see. It's plenty cold up there though. My daughter's at Ft. Greely, and its been about -42 F with Ice Fog the past few days. May go down to -55 during the next few days.

[hriverajr]

Well at the moment.. the trend is not our friend for really cold weather, much less wintry precip if the GFS plays out and it has been somewhat consistent. The NAM and CMC are somewhat similar. In fact after the 10th we may just be having mild weather for quite a stretch. Our best chance for cold and maybe some icy stuff in north Texas may in fact be this upcoming sunday and monday. The moisture fields in fact are not that good except for maybe northeast texas in that time period. The trough moves through on Wed or so and its all over. We will just have to wait and see.


Hector

[iorange55]

Well at the moment.. the trend is not our friend for really cold weather, much less wintry precip if the GFS plays out and it has been somewhat consistent. The NAM and CMC are somewhat similar. In fact after the 10th we may just be having mild weather for quite a stretch. Our best chance for cold and maybe some icy stuff in north Texas may in fact be this upcoming sunday and monday. The moisture fields in fact are not that good except for maybe northeast texas in that time period. The trough moves through on Wed or so and its all over. We will just have to wait and see.


Hector

And reality has to come through and crush my hopes.......I hate living in Texas during the winter.