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HURAKAN
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#3181 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 30, 2008 11:34 am

Image
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3182 Postby jinftl » Tue Dec 30, 2008 2:25 pm

Mother Nature is being a very gracious hostess for all those in florida this week from up north....temps in the mid 60's to low 70's panhandle to the upper 70's to low 80's south with lots of sunshine.

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
200 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

PENSACOLA NAS 64
PANAMA CITY 66
TALLAHASSEE 71
GAINESVILLE 68
JACKSONVILLE 68
ORLANDO INTL 73
DAYTONA BEACH 72
MELBOURNE 73
VERO BEACH 74
FT PIERCE 75
TAMPA 71
SARASOTA 72
FT MYERS 79
KEY WEST NAS 77
W PALM BEACH 76
FT LAUDERDALE 80
MIAMI 82
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3183 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Dec 31, 2008 1:14 pm

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Drought expands north of Tampa Bay
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Heat Wave!

#3184 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Jan 01, 2009 1:09 am

MiamiensisWx wrote:
boca wrote:I've been running my ac nonstop since Dec 10th.No real cold fronts in sight just weakening troughs pushing thru as the winds shift NE not cooling us down. Hey its Florida its not supposed to get cold. My air conditioner got a break for 3 weeks. I'm wishing for another break in January.On another weather forum some pro mets were talking about a - NAO in January which means real cold fronts not dying troughs.

Your statement: "Hey its Florida its not supposed to get cold."

Answer: MYTH

South Florida has a notable history of numerous severe, persistent freezes and cold events. Most seasons feature a minimum of one event with temperatures below 40 F in south Florida. In fact, Miami has seen lows in the 20s and low 30s on several occasions. A small sample of the most significant cold events and freezes includes December 1894, February 1895, February 1899, February 1917, 1927 (?), December 1934, January 1940, December 1957, December 1962, January 1977, January 1981, December 1983, January 1985, December 1989, and February 2003.

http://www.flcitrusmutual.com/industry-issues/weather/freeze_timeline.aspx

Top 10 Weather Events
PALM BEACH COUNTY


3. Freeze and snow; January 19, 1977
All time record low of 27 degrees at West Palm Beach
5. Christmas Day Freeze; December 25, 1989
Electrical brown-outs and severe agriculture damage
8. Longest Cold spell; December 10-15, 1962
6 days in a row with near freezing temperatures

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/palm_beach_events.html

Top 10 Weather Events
BROWARD COUNTY


4. Freeze and snow; January 19, 1977
One of most severe of century
7. Christmas Day Freeze; December 25, 1989
Electrical brown-outs; vegetation damage

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/broward_events.html

Top 10 Weather Events
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY


3. Freeze and snow; January 19, 1977
One of the most severe of the century, temperatures below 32 degrees for up to 14 hours and lowest temperatures near 20 degrees in Homestead
7. Freeze; February 3-5, 1917
Probably coldest temperatures this century; 26 degrees along Biscayne Blvd.
9. Longest Cold spell; December 10-15, 1962
6 days in a row with temperatures at or below 35 degrees in Homestead
10. Christmas Day Freeze; December 25, 1989
Electrical brown-outs and severe agricultural damage; 3 hypothermia deaths

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/dade_events.html


Even those cold temperatures would be a heat-wave for anywhere in the northern US during
winter. :D :cheesy: In a weird way, Florida never gets truly cold-- like sub-20s with ice and snow,
like Colorado during an Arctic blast.
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#3185 Postby Cyclone1 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 11:38 am

1983 had a serious freeze, I think. Cost Florida a few billion bucks in orange production.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3186 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:08 am

Interesting discussion from NWS TBW tonight:

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND WILL TRACK TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY EVENING WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3187 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Jan 02, 2009 8:19 am

YEA!!!!!!!!!! :cold:
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#3188 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:20 am

Nice and tropical today with 70s temperatures. Interior
areas might hit 80.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3189 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:55 am

NWS TBW 2am.


.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IN THE
LONG RANGE AS A L/W TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ADVECTING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY ON GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH COOL DRY AIR SETTLING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

They seem to be holding back with their AFD's, but the grids show a different story. Also, what is a Rex Block?
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#3190 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 03, 2009 11:24 am

Image

"MILD TEMPERATURES WITH MINMAL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BECOME COOLER AND DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY."

Link: http://www.srh.weather.gov/mfl/gcast/#
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3191 Postby jinftl » Sat Jan 03, 2009 3:27 pm

Latest NWS Miami Discussion.....temps heading in a direction we haven't seen in a month....towards normal!

BEHIND THE FRONT SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA WED NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. WED NIGHT
WILL TURN BREEZY AND COOLER...WITH SEVERAL COOLER DAYS AND NIGHTS
LIKELY WITH LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
BEYOND THAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHICH MEANS LOW TEMPS POSSIBLY INTO THE
MID 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS...WITH TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS
. THIS WILL STILL FEEL LIKE A DECENT COOL DOWN
THOUGH GIVEN THE 5 DEGREE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS SOUTH
FL FOR MUCH OF THE PAST MONTH.
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#3192 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:36 pm

Temperatures are in the low 70s outside. The cold front
later this week will knock temperatures down
to the upper 60s for highs- not really cold.
Lows near the coast will likely not drop below
53*F.
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Re:

#3193 Postby jinftl » Sun Jan 04, 2009 1:45 pm

Temps 'near normal' are in the cards for this week....might get a night or 2 that are a few degrees below normal, but nothing 'to write home about'. Temps in the upper 60's to low 70's across the I-4 belt and in the mid 70's in the south are close to 'normal' for this time of year.

During the next few weeks, average annual temps will bottom out across the state...and start inching up in february, esp by late Feb.

Tampa Avg Hi-Lo
1-Jan 71-53
10-Jan 70-52
20-Jan 70-52
30-Jan 70-53
10-Feb 71-53
20-Feb 72-54
28-Feb 74-56

Miami Avg Hi-Lo
1-Jan 77-60
10-Jan 76-60
20-Jan 77-59
30-Jan 77-60
10-Feb 77-60
20-Feb 78-61
28-Feb 79-62

(data from NWS Tampa Bay & NWS Miami)


Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Temperatures are in the low 70s outside. The cold front
later this week will knock temperatures down
to the upper 60s for highs- not really cold.
Lows near the coast will likely not drop below
53*F.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3194 Postby jinftl » Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:15 pm

NWS Miami really trying to bring a forecast for below normal temps into their outlooks, but just not seeing the support for more than temps dropping to 'normal' or maybe a few degrees below late this week.


A COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND PASS FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT BUT ARE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO START TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...NO
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...AND THE MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Weak front then cooler

#3195 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:44 pm

jinftl wrote:NWS Miami really trying to bring a forecast for below normal temps into their outlooks, but just not seeing the support for more than temps dropping to 'normal' or maybe a few degrees below late this week.


A COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND PASS FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT BUT ARE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE. WILL NEED TO START TO FINE TUNE THE
TIMING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...NO
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...AND THE MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.


Yep I read the latest disco but I think the key paragraph is this one about the cooler air possibly missing south Florida now:

A MUCH COOLER/LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL POUR INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS 00Z AND 06Z
GFS RUNS SHOWED A PUSH OF COOLER AIR LATE THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BUT NOW THE 12Z RUN HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON THIS
IDEA...AND IS IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF IN SHOWING THIS OTHER
BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR NORTH AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL NOT
ALLOWING A PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH
. DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FCST AS WE CAN WATCH LATER RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS
PROGRESSES.

link to latest ECMWF run 500MB:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9010512!!/
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#3196 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:50 pm

The CPC continues to believe a cooler pattern is on the way for Florida...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... .small.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... .small.gif
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#3197 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jan 05, 2009 10:01 pm

Image

Lots of fog setting in over the northern part of the state. DFA's are in place over the Panhandle and in S. Florida and should be out IMO from New Port Richey northward. Current conditions very much host fog, 66F with a DP of 64, rH of 93%, calm winds, and 9.00 vis. Latest AFD mentions the sat may have low stratus instead of fog (its an experimental product).
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#3198 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Jan 06, 2009 12:15 am

A DFA has been issued for all of the West Coast of Florida. There is patchy fog moving through here. One minute you can go through and you cant see down the street, the next it is clear for the most part. I thought it was odd that the fog is up 20-30 feet. Quite neat to see clouds just barely above your head , makes you wanna jump us and touch. haha
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: SLGT risk in the panhandle, wtch pos

#3199 Postby jinftl » Tue Jan 06, 2009 4:14 pm

NWS Miami Discussion this afternoon on extended outlook:

AFTER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE AREA RESULTS IN A COOL
MORNING ON FRIDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...HOWEVER...AND WITH SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LOW PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S.
MAY ATTEMPT TO SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE AS IF THIS FRONT
WILL EITHER STALL NORTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BEFORE
REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY END
OF FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEAST...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: SLGT risk in the panhandle, wtch pos

#3200 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jan 06, 2009 4:19 pm

:uarrow:

NWS Miami not biting on the massive ECMWF trough at 168-200 hours out...just yet.

As it stands now this trough would not create a widespread freeze across Florida but would bring lows into the 40s for parts of Southern Florida.

However, looking at the latest 12Z ECMWF guidance, the trough is not quite as amplified as in previous runs which makes me wonder if the ECMWF is going to back off on the Eastern CONUS chill in subsequent runs.
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