The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

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Calasanjy
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The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#1 Postby Calasanjy » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:22 am

As only six months remain until the start of the 2009 season...we might as well begin postulating on which storm names will be the worst. I am willing to start it off and predict that there will be one Category Five hurricane, and it will be Henri which will mimic Hugo and impact the Lesser Antilles before heading on a ride up the East Coast (as opposed to Hugo's smash hit) in the third week of September. Other major hurricanes will be Claudette (3), Danny (4), and Joaquin (3). U.S. landfalls will come as a result of Hurricanes Ana (1), Danny (3 at landfall), the aforementioned Henri (cat. 3 or 2 at landfall), Joaquin (clips South Florida as a Cat. 1 after being major in the West Caribbean and battering Cuba) as well as from Tropical Storms Erika, Grace, and Kate. The last storm of the Atlantic season will be Category 1 Hurricane Larry - a central Atlantic "fish" storm in early November.

As for the Eastern Pacific, I predict that the season will get an early start with Category 2 Hurricane Andres in mid-May, and go 14/8/3 with majors being Category 4 Hurricanes Carlos and Hilda and Category 3 Hurricane Ignacio.
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#2 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:41 am

Here's a list of the names. I'm going to have to think about this a bit:

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#3 Postby Dionne » Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:42 am

Calasanjy wrote:As only six months remain until the start of the 2009 season...we might as well begin postulating on which storm names will be the worst. I am willing to start it off and predict that there will be one Category Five hurricane, and it will be Henri which will mimic Hugo and impact the Lesser Antilles before heading on a ride up the East Coast (as opposed to Hugo's smash hit) in the third week of September. Other major hurricanes will be Claudette (3), Danny (4), and Joaquin (3). U.S. landfalls will come as a result of Hurricanes Ana (1), Danny (3 at landfall), the aforementioned Henri (cat. 3 or 2 at landfall), Joaquin (clips South Florida as a Cat. 1 after being major in the West Caribbean and battering Cuba) as well as from Tropical Storms Erika, Grace, and Kate. The last storm of the Atlantic season will be Category 1 Hurricane Larry - a central Atlantic "fish" storm in early November.

As for the Eastern Pacific, I predict that the season will get an early start with Category 2 Hurricane Andres in mid-May, and go 14/8/3 with majors being Category 4 Hurricanes Carlos and Hilda and Category 3 Hurricane Ignacio.




A Cat 5 in the Lesser Antilles is unthinkable. It would kill thousands.
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#4 Postby Calasanjy » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:56 pm

A Cat 5 in the Lesser Antilles is unthinkable. It would kill thousands.


Although that doesn't guarantee that it would strike as a Cat. 5 - recall that Hugo weakened to a 3 prior to hitting the Antilles and Puerto Rico.
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:29 pm

I think Grace will finally break the streak of being wimpy and be one of the majors this year
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jan 06, 2009 4:49 pm

Dionne wrote:
Calasanjy wrote:As only six months remain until the start of the 2009 season...we might as well begin postulating on which storm names will be the worst. I am willing to start it off and predict that there will be one Category Five hurricane, and it will be Henri which will mimic Hugo and impact the Lesser Antilles before heading on a ride up the East Coast (as opposed to Hugo's smash hit) in the third week of September. Other major hurricanes will be Claudette (3), Danny (4), and Joaquin (3). U.S. landfalls will come as a result of Hurricanes Ana (1), Danny (3 at landfall), the aforementioned Henri (cat. 3 or 2 at landfall), Joaquin (clips South Florida as a Cat. 1 after being major in the West Caribbean and battering Cuba) as well as from Tropical Storms Erika, Grace, and Kate. The last storm of the Atlantic season will be Category 1 Hurricane Larry - a central Atlantic "fish" storm in early November.

As for the Eastern Pacific, I predict that the season will get an early start with Category 2 Hurricane Andres in mid-May, and go 14/8/3 with majors being Category 4 Hurricanes Carlos and Hilda and Category 3 Hurricane Ignacio.




A Cat 5 in the Lesser Antilles is unthinkable. It would kill thousands.


It would not even kill 30. The LA is not HAITI!
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jan 06, 2009 4:50 pm

Calasanjy wrote:
A Cat 5 in the Lesser Antilles is unthinkable. It would kill thousands.


Although that doesn't guarantee that it would strike as a Cat. 5 - recall that Hugo weakened to a 3 prior to hitting the Antilles and Puerto Rico.


Hugo was a cat 4. Abou 30 deaths were reported despite striking about 6 islands. The Lesser Antilles are or are close to first world countries (France most certainly is, as are a few other countries there)
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#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:31 pm

Thousands in the Lesser Antilles is highly unlikely these days. They may have nowhere to go but are very well-prepared. Plus they aren't exactly prone to storm surge. Such huge death tolls are most likely in the mountains of Mexico and Central America, Hispaniola (especially Haiti) and the major US coastal cities.
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#9 Postby Dionne » Tue Jan 06, 2009 6:06 pm

I may have jumped the gun with the thousands speculation.

There is also the possibility of reports not coming in to the media. Try to find something about Kitts/Nevis and Hugo. They went for months without electricity. Omar just hit them on the Leeward side and they experienced the same crime wave that NOLA did after KATRINA. They are now the small island (less than 100K population) murder capitol of the world with 22 murders and a population of 68K.

That's worse than Jackson, Mississippi.

When we spoke with Denzil and Lester On Kitts....they told us they had been to the U.S. And they remarked and laughed that we built our homes with wood.

Within the last year I have visited Kitts (twice), Progreso and Cozumel, Mexico.......all three have hurricane damage. Recovery is slow.

They are scrambling for the American dollar. It's a sad deal.
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#10 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:35 pm

Of course I really hope that no storm is bad enough that its name gets retired

As someone whose main interest in tropical storms is in the naming process itself, I find myself hoping that IF a name has to be retired, it's one of the names that's been on the list the longest. This year is the start of another cycle through the list of six names that started back in 1979. The names on the 2009 list that were also on the 1979 list are Ana, Claudette, Henri, and everything from Kate on. If I had to pick just one of those as one I hope gets retired, it would be Claudette, because there has never been a female "C" name retired since 1979.

So just to fit my interests, I'll predict Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, and Mindy as the "major names" of 2009.
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#11 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:06 pm

Ana-early season, 2nd week of May TS forms just East of the Bahamas and impacts coastal Georgia as high end TS before being carried out to sea quickly by incoming front. Almost a pinpoint right turn that makes it miss the Carolina coasts.
Bill-Early June TS forms just East of the Islands developing into a CAT1 in the Eastern Carribean before being eaten by shear
Claudette-First GOM storm of the season forms in BOC after traversing Carribean and not becoming a TC. Landfalls as a CAT1 in SW LA causing minimal damage fortunately, but bringing much needed rain.
Danny-Forms in the Eastern Caribbean early August and quickly ramps up into a CAT3 Hurricane as it crosses through central PR causing major damage across the whole island before heading NW towards the Carolina's turning just at the SC coast and riding up to Cape Hatteras beginning as a CAT3 at the turn and as a CAT2 as it passes Cape Hatteras.Parallels the coast no more than 55 miles offshore. Major damage in the coastal islands due to surge and battering waves.
Erika-A Florida West coast storm that begins as a depression in the Central Caribbean, passes just East of the Yucatan as a CAT3 and zeros in on Tampa Bay area landfalling as a CAT5 in Palm Harbor just North of the Bay area. Time frame is late August-early September.
Fred-The first CV storm of the season 1st week of September approaches the Northern Leewards as a CAT3 before turning out to sea as a total fish storm
Grace-Another CV storm quickly follows a week later but is further North track wise than Fred. Surprisingly follows NW track all the way to landfall as a CAT2 35 miles North of Atlantic City.
Henri-TS Henri is a fish his entire 3-1/2 weeks of roaming the Atlantic. Actually makes a turn around Bermuda to the West of the island before finally going out to sea for good.
Ida-A late September surprise that comes through the Southern Caribbean Islands as a CAT3 before being torn apart by shear in the Central Caribbean.
Joaquin-Forms East of Nicaragua, landfalls as a CAT1 heading West and emerges into the EPAC where it reforms into Hurricane Ignacio
Kate-Early October TS wanders aimlessly W to E across the GOM after forming on the tail end of a cold front. Poofs and never makes landfall.
Larry-Forms in the South Central Caribbean and heads N crossing Hispaniola as a somewhat dry(comparatively)CAT1 due to his forward speed of 25 mph. Heads N and E into the Atlantic to a quick death. Mid October.
Mindy-Late season CV that is a total fish peaking at CAT2 for a few hours.
Nicholas- Forms just East of the Bahamas and is quickly whisked out to sea the last week of October.
Odette-Forms as a TS in the South Central GOM and travels East through the Florida straits becoming a depression as it passes Key West and dying a slow death as it moves through the Southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. Much controversy as to whether Odette was ever a true TS(warm core). 2nd week of November.

I pray I am totally wrong on any of the destructive storms mentioned.
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#12 Postby severe » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:13 am

Not another Claudette. :grr:
Had my fill of Claudette in 1979 when it stalled over the Alvin/Friendswood area.
The highest one-day total was reported near Alvin, Texas where 42 inches (1,100 mm) of rain fell. This remains the twenty-four hour rainfall record for any location in the United States
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#13 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:40 am

Easiest way to do this is by looking at previous incarnations of the name. Chances are, this year's version will have more than a few things in common with its' ancestor.

(examples: Bertha as an early CV, Dolly hitting the W GOM, Allison/ Claudette in TX, and storms beginning with F or I being majors)


Big names could be Fred, Henri, Ida and Nicholas.

Ana - will not get above TS strength. Either a fish or a weak GOM landfall
Bill - TS/Cat1 either hitting the NGOM or parallelling 200-300 miles off the Eastern Seaboard
Claudette - TS/Cat1 hitting TX, of course. :roll:
Danny - Cat1/2 hitting Florida
Erika - Cat3/4 fish
Fred - Cat4 CV with an eventual NC landfall
Grace - fishy TS! This one might even get eaten up by Fred or Ida. :lol:
Henri - Cat1/2 into Central America
Ida - This name screams New England for some reason. Might be because it reminds me of Edna. Eventual Cat1/2 landfall in Long/Rhode Island area.
Joaquin - Cat4 fish, recurving behind Ida
Kate - Possible Bermuda threat, Cat2/3.
Larry - Cat2 in SW GOM, Mexico landfall
Mindy - GOM TS, landfall near Tampa
Nicholas - Cat3 into Hispaniola
Odette - Late-season GOM TS
Peter - Late-season fish, Cat1
Rose - There will not be a Rose this season
Sam - no Sam in 2009
Teresa - N/A
Victor - N/A
Wanda - N/A

I just pulled that out of thin air, of course. Since most seasonal forecasts are made the same way, I'll put my chips down today on a 16/10/5 season.
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 07, 2009 3:43 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Ana-early season, 2nd week of May TS forms just East of the Bahamas and impacts coastal Georgia as high end TS before being carried out to sea quickly by incoming front. Almost a pinpoint right turn that makes it miss the Carolina coasts.
Bill-Early June TS forms just East of the Islands developing into a CAT1 in the Eastern Carribean before being eaten by shear
Claudette-First GOM storm of the season forms in BOC after traversing Carribean and not becoming a TC. Landfalls as a CAT1 in SW LA causing minimal damage fortunately, but bringing much needed rain.
Danny-Forms in the Eastern Caribbean early August and quickly ramps up into a CAT3 Hurricane as it crosses through central PR causing major damage across the whole island before heading NW towards the Carolina's turning just at the SC coast and riding up to Cape Hatteras beginning as a CAT3 at the turn and as a CAT2 as it passes Cape Hatteras.Parallels the coast no more than 55 miles offshore. Major damage in the coastal islands due to surge and battering waves.
Erika-A Florida West coast storm that begins as a depression in the Central Caribbean, passes just East of the Yucatan as a CAT3 and zeros in on Tampa Bay area landfalling as a CAT5 in Palm Harbor just North of the Bay area. Time frame is late August-early September.
Fred-The first CV storm of the season 1st week of September approaches the Northern Leewards as a CAT3 before turning out to sea as a total fish storm
Grace-Another CV storm quickly follows a week later but is further North track wise than Fred. Surprisingly follows NW track all the way to landfall as a CAT2 35 miles North of Atlantic City.
Henri-TS Henri is a fish his entire 3-1/2 weeks of roaming the Atlantic. Actually makes a turn around Bermuda to the West of the island before finally going out to sea for good.
Ida-A late September surprise that comes through the Southern Caribbean Islands as a CAT3 before being torn apart by shear in the Central Caribbean.
Joaquin-Forms East of Nicaragua, landfalls as a CAT1 heading West and emerges into the EPAC where it reforms into Hurricane Ignacio
Kate-Early October TS wanders aimlessly W to E across the GOM after forming on the tail end of a cold front. Poofs and never makes landfall.
Larry-Forms in the South Central Caribbean and heads N crossing Hispaniola as a somewhat dry(comparatively)CAT1 due to his forward speed of 25 mph. Heads N and E into the Atlantic to a quick death. Mid October.
Mindy-Late season CV that is a total fish peaking at CAT2 for a few hours.
Nicholas- Forms just East of the Bahamas and is quickly whisked out to sea the last week of October.
Odette-Forms as a TS in the South Central GOM and travels East through the Florida straits becoming a depression as it passes Key West and dying a slow death as it moves through the Southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. Much controversy as to whether Odette was ever a true TS(warm core). 2nd week of November.

I pray I am totally wrong on any of the destructive storms mentioned.


Holy smokes,I better move to Upstate New York before August! :eek: Jk
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:32 pm

The only one that really stands out for me is Grace (take that for what it's worth...probably not much). Might try to make up for 2003, maybe? :wink:
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 8:05 pm

AnnularCane wrote:The only one that really stands out for me is Grace (take that for what it's worth...probably not much). Might try to make up for 2003, maybe? :wink:


So far, all three Graces have been duds...
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#17 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:08 pm

I'd assume, based on averages, the early and late storms would probably be the weakest. But then again, there was Bertha and Paloma this year.


I flew through the outer bands of Claudette in an American Beagle prop-jet from IAH to DFW on my way to my grandmother's funeral.


An earlier Claudette rained bunches on Alvin.

Totally unscientific gut, a non-season in Texas, but if there is a storm, it'll be Claudette.
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#18 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jan 09, 2009 12:02 am

vbhoutex wrote:Henri-TS Henri is a fish his entire 3-1/2 weeks of roaming the Atlantic. Actually makes a turn around Bermuda to the West of the island before finally going out to sea for good.



3-1/2 weeks? I can just imagine what that thread would be like. :P
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Re: The 2009 hurricane season...the big boys (and girls)?

#19 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Jan 09, 2009 1:51 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:The only one that really stands out for me is Grace (take that for what it's worth...probably not much). Might try to make up for 2003, maybe? :wink:


So far, all three Graces have been duds...


Image
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#20 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Jan 11, 2009 2:36 pm

Ooohh... the man has a point. Although technically, Grace was only part of the problem for that one.
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