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jinftl
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: SLGT risk in the panhandle, wtch pos

#3201 Postby jinftl » Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:17 pm

And i think they are only going about 144 hours out in their extended forecast...be interesting to see if Miami is finally going to drop below 50 deg (offically at airport, lowest for season is 51 deg)...but not forecast in the next 6 days at least.

gatorcane wrote::uarrow:

NWS Miami not biting on the massive ECMWF trough at 168-200 hours out...just yet.

As it stands now this trough would not create a widespread freeze across Florida but would bring lows into the 40s for parts of Southern Florida.

However, looking at the latest 12Z ECMWF guidance, the trough is not quite as amplified as in previous runs which makes me wonder if the ECMWF is going to back off on the Eastern CONUS chill in subsequent runs.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: SLGT risk in the panhandle, wtch pos

#3203 Postby jinftl » Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:56 pm

Temp in Miami tomorrow more like May than January...record highs possible across south florida....followed by a nice, refreshing airmass that warms to 'perfectly seasonable' into the weekend and first half of next week...NWS discussion goes no further than 1 week out at this point...wise move since anything beyond is speculation at best.

NWS Forecast for: Miami Shores FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 10:52 pm EST Jan 6, 2009
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overnight: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86.
Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 73. North wind between 7 and 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 75.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. East wind around 7 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. East wind around 8 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind between 5 and 7 mph.
Sunday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 76.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78.
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#3204 Postby psyclone » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:08 am

Hopefully we'll get some much needed rain tomorrow. A new tornado watch has just gone out for the panhandle, se Alabama & into western Georgia. Hopefully this squall line can build into the gulf and sweep the peninsula tomorrow with at least a quick downpour. The drought map posted a few days ago by fact789 shows that the region now in moderate drought matches almost perfectly with the region that was in the tropical storm Fay screw zone. I got no rain from Fay in my neighborhood and august and sept were exceptionally dry. in fact i can't recall an august with less thunder than 2008. We need rain in west central florida and we need it bad.
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#3205 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:09 am

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF MACON
GEORGIA TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
ERN AL TO E OF MOB AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORTS EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
BAND OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL AS ACTIVITY
SHIFT EWD 20-25KT... WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: TOR Watch in the panhandle

#3206 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:17 am

The cold front is quickly charging through Central Florida this morning...

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=1
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#3207 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:49 am

It came in much quicker than the local models had hinted, by 3-4 hours in some cases. Klystron9 has impressed me in the one break I have seen it in action. 3D radar has made a move into the Bay Area permanently. It has also shown that there was a 44mph gust near the Courtney Campbell. SVR Warning for East Pasco, NW Polk, S Sumter.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Thin line of storms today, then cool

#3208 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:15 am

Hard to tell from 12 hour time steps which could mean precip ends before temps and thicknesses would become favorable for ice or snow, but Panhandle winter weather threat from 0Z Canadian?


Image
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Thin line of storms today, then cool

#3209 Postby jinftl » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:39 am

This front is ushering in something that hasn’t been seen statewide in quite a while…temps that are remarkably close to normal for the time of year.

Compare the statewide forecast with the following avg high and low temps for the date in the following cities:
Pensacola 61-43
Tallahassee 63-40
Jacksonville 64-42
Orlando 72-50
Tampa 70-53
Miami 76-60
Key West 76-66


STATE FORECAST FOR FLORIDA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 AM EST WED JAN 7 2009

...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE...
...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR FLORIDA
PENINSULA EXCEPT SOUTH...

.TODAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
NORTH AND CENTRAL. SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS IN THE 60S
PANHANDLE...70S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST COAST AND
NEAR 80 KEYS.
.TONIGHT...CLEARING AND TURNING COLDER. SCATTERED MAINLY
EVENING SHOWERS SOUTHEAST AND KEYS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S NORTH...40S CENTRAL...50S SOUTH...EXCEPT UPPER 50S SOUTH COASTS
AND UPPER 60S IN THE KEYS.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS NEAR 70
NORTH...AROUND 70 CENTRAL...AND LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH AND KEYS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WESTERN PANHANDLE...40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 50S
TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOWER 60S KEYS.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S PANHANDLE AND NORTH AND 70S
ELSEWHERE.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS PANHANDLE AND NORTH. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS KEYS. LOWS NEAR 50 PANHANDLE...IN THE 40S
NORTH AND CENTRAL...50S TO LOWER 60S MAINLAND SOUTH...MID 60S KEYS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 NORTH AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH AND KEYS.
LOWS UPPER 30S PANHANDLE...UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND
CENTRAL...50S TO LOW 60S MAINLAND SOUTH...MID 60S KEYS. HIGHS IN THE
60S NORTH AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
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#3210 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:51 am

Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Wed Jan 07, 2009 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Thin line of storms today, then cool

#3211 Postby jinftl » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:46 pm

It will be an interesting test of the models....GFS is depicting much cooler scenario than ECMWF....key is to whether the models start to show a consensus...in one direction or the other. Great Discussions to read...examples of the challenge forecasters have to deal with when models differ pretty significantly in the long-term.

From NWS Jacksonville:
LONG TERM (SAT THRU TUE)...
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA/SPEED MAXIMA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. DGEX AND MEDIUM RANGE GFS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH...DGEX
SOLN IS FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE THE GFS
DEPICTS THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WILL FOLLOW
GFS SOLN...WHICH IS DRIER OF THE TWO SOLNS. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT DYNAMICS/SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

From NWS Tallahassee:
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
AFTER CAREFULLY READING LAST NIGHT`S LONG TERM DISCUSSION...IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOW COMPLETELY
FLIP-FLOPPED...WITH THE 00 UTC GFS NOW PUSHING THE 1ST COLD FRONT
FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SAT AFTN AND EVENING...WHILE THE
12 UTC ECMWF RUN FROM TUE LINGERS THE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL WAIT
FOR THE 00 UTC ECMWF RUN BEFORE COMPOSING THE EXTENDED GRIDS...WITH
THE HOPE THAT THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A CONSENSUS. IN ANY
EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...AS A STEEP TROF BEGINS TO CARVE OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING...AS THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE NEW YEAR MAY ARRIVE IN FULL FORCE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK


From NWS Tampa Bay:
HAVE KEPT WITH THE FORECAST TREND OF THE ECMWF AS IT
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL OF LATE. THIS MODEL KEEPS A FRONT
STALLED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING IT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THUS THIS MODEL IS INDICATING A MUCH COOLER
SCENARIO FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

From NWS Melbourne:
SAT-TUE...HAVE GIVEN A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE WITH SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION WITH NEXT COLD FRONT PROGD TO
NEAR E CENTRAL FL THIS WEEKEND. PTLY CLDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S EXPECTED SAT THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH FRONT PROGD TO
NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT. 00Z GFS MUCH COOLER BY TUE WITH
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AS MID-UPR LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS. ECM ALSO INDICATES PUSH OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE WKND FRONT BY TUE...SO WILL TREND FORECAST COOLER...
BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE 00Z GFS WHICH HAS DROPPED TUE TEMPS
5-10 DEG S AND 10-15 DEGS NORTH FROM YDAYS 00Z RUN.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Thin line of storms today, then cool

#3212 Postby frankthetank » Wed Jan 07, 2009 1:01 pm

12Z GFS kicks out a 51F for Miami... Looks like the dry weather continues.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KMIA
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Thin line of storms today, then cool

#3213 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:08 pm

frankthetank wrote:12Z GFS kicks out a 51F for Miami... Looks like the dry weather continues.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KMIA


and the NWS Miami has mentioned this well-advertised ECMWF/GFS trough for the first time in their latest disco. Snippet:

For all of those in Florida waiting for the return of more "winter-like" conditions there is hope for you :)

AN EVEN STRONGER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT. THE
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS STRONG FRONT COMES FROM THE DAKOTAS BUT
THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH GOES AND HOW DEEP THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH GETS. ANYHOW, THE COLDEST MORNING NOW APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 40S TO NEAR 50 MIAMI.
AFTER TODAY AND THIS EVENINGS 40/50 PERCENT POPS, POPS WILL BE
ALMOST NIL THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND THEN SLGT CHC FROM TIME TO TIME
UNTIL THE STRONG FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Thin line of storms today, then cool

#3214 Postby jinftl » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:02 pm

What is interesting is that 51 is the lowest temp Miami has seen so far this fall/winter....very unusual to go through even Nov-Dec-Jan without a temp below 50 deg, so maybe we are going to see the 50 deg mark finally reached (or lower..but doesn't sound right now but very much if that were to happen...the NWS office location at MIA often is warmer than the surrounding areas...esp rural ones to the west that can see more in the way of radiational cooling).

To compare, by 1/7/08 Miami had already seen a temp in the 30's for the 07/08 fall/winter season.....39 deg on 1/3/08.


frankthetank wrote:12Z GFS kicks out a 51F for Miami... Looks like the dry weather continues.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KMIA
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#3215 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:17 pm

Strong winds with the storms earlier.
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Re:

#3216 Postby jinftl » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:21 pm

Winds now in Miami....sustained at 32 mph!



FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
600 PM EST WED JAN 07 2009
MIAMI CLOUDY 70 NW32


Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Strong winds with the storms earlier.
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#3217 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:48 pm

I had 0.02 inches of rain and a gust of 30 mph. It may have been sustained. The high was 84.4ºF.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Thin line of storms today, then cool

#3218 Postby frankthetank » Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:35 am

Noticed that GFS kicks out over an inch of rain for Weds 21st... Then drops the temps back again... Over 300hrs out, so just God only knows what will happen. Would love to see the EURO 850 temps out to 240hr.

I'll be down in Florida, so i need to watch this stuff carefully :)
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Thin line of storms today, then cool

#3219 Postby jinftl » Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:54 am

In 1200 hours it will just about be March....pretty sure the model runs will be trending warmer by then.

frankthetank wrote:Noticed that GFS kicks out over an inch of rain for Weds 21st... Then drops the temps back again... Over 300hrs out, so just God only knows what will happen. Would love to see the EURO 850 temps out to 240hr.

I'll be down in Florida, so i need to watch this stuff carefully :)
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#3220 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jan 08, 2009 7:13 am

The 6z GFS is showing a low temperature of 28.75F at the Orlando International Airport next Wednesday morning. If this actually plays out, then it will be the coldest reading MCO has experienced since January 24th, 2003 when it hit 27F.

In South Florida, this same run also drops Miami down to 45.85F next Wednesday morning.
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