Florida Weather

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Arctic blast likely in 5 days.

[JonathanBelles]

Arctic blast likely in 5 days.

And this cooler period (and then the blast) isnt going away.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Accuweather has some cold temperatures forecasted:

Saint Petersburg
http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/saint- ... 1&metric=0

highs upper 50s, lows in the low 40s next Friday, cold spell lasts
5 days from there

http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/tampa/ ... 1&metric=0
Tampa in the 30s for four days in a row for the lows!

[frankthetank]

ECMWF has free images right now so i made a gif...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest GFS run is showing an ocean-effect snow flurry threat for the east coast of FL late next week...

168 hrs
surface - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
850mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168l.gif

174 hrs
surface - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
850mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif

[frankthetank]

Ouch?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS continues to look cold for Florida next week...

It shows some pretty chilly mornings mid next week:
Wed. morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif (36F in Orlando)
Thurs. morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif (40F in Orlando)

Followed by even colder weather by the end of the week and on into the weekend:
Fri. morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif (43F in Orlando)
Sat. morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif (33F in Orlando)


Along with the cold low temperatures, this model run also shows some pretty chilly afternoons...

49F Wednesday afternoon in Orlando ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif )
61F Thursday afternoon in Orlando ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif )
50F Friday afternoon in Orlando ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif )
47F Saturday afternoon in Orlando ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif )


Snow flurries even still appear to be a possibility before the weekend is through! Check out the Sunday morning 850mb temperatures and precipitation: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif

Orlando = MCO

[Scorpion]

Wow that would be really nice, I hope that verifies

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The 12z GFS continues to look cold for Florida next week...

It shows some pretty chilly mornings mid next week:
Wed. morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif (36F in Orlando)
Thurs. morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif (40F in Orlando)

Followed by even colder weather by the end of the week and on into the weekend:
Fri. morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif (43F in Orlando)
Sat. morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif (33F in Orlando)


Along with the cold low temperatures, this model run also shows some pretty chilly afternoons...

49F Wednesday afternoon in Orlando ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif )
61F Thursday afternoon in Orlando ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif )
50F Friday afternoon in Orlando ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif )
47F Saturday afternoon in Orlando ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif )


Snow flurries even still appear to be a possibility before the weekend is through!: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192l.gif

Orlando = MCO

WOW!!! Saint Petersburg is below freezing on that map!!! THat would be insane-
like the January 24, 2003 frigid blast....looks like 29 F for Saint Pete,
28 F for Tampa, and Mid 20s: 25-27 F for Orlando and the entire northeast
coast with snow flurrries from Jacksonville to south of Melbourne

[gatorcane]

The latest GFS run is showing an ocean-effect snow flurry threat for the east coast of FL late next week...

168 hrs
surface - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
850mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168l.gif

174 hrs
surface - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
850mb - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif

interesting indeed. The GFS is likely projecting the airmass to be so cold that it causes a large mass of low-level stratocumulus to form over the Atlantic waters due to the very cold air moving over relatively warmer water with a stiff NNE to NE windflow. It's possible (I should stress "remotely" possible here), but we are talking more than 144 hours where things become a bit suspect. Personally I think the GFS is way to bearish on this cold airmass. Yes, there is a large mass of build-up cold air over Canada that is likely to pour into the Eastern CONUS, but what the GFS is suggesting for Florida is a bit extreme. In fact the ECMWF and UKMET look more reasonable at this point with cooler than normal temperatues progged for Florida for the last two weeks in January but nothing like what the GFS is showing.

[JonathanBelles]

Its the continuity of these model runs that makes me believe that this may come to fruition, as long that continuity isnt 8 days away all the time.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

SNOW FLURRIES Forecasted In Tampa
by Accuweather On January 23-24:
http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/tampa/ ... 1&metric=0
Tampa Wind Chill
Wind Chill:
January:
12: 36*F
13: 35*F
14: 40*F
15: 39*F
16: 31*F
17: 31*F
18: 41*F
19: 28*F,
20: 37*F
21: 45*F
22: 41*F with rain
Snow and Arctic Blast:
23: 20*F, low 35*F, periods of rain converting to snow
24: 31*F, "Mostly Cloudy with a Flurry" WOW.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The headline from Joe Bastardi's afternoon post...

"FLORIDA CITRUS UNDER ATTACK THIS WEEKEND."

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS run shows five sub-43F morning's in a row for Orlando (MCO) next week. It starts Wednesday morning and ends Sunday morning.

[frankthetank]

I take it everyone in S. Florida will be running around in winter jackets next week? No thongs? This is going to suck



Timing was never my thing!

[jinftl]

Is there a signficance to temps below 43 deg? The normal low in orlando for now is 50 deg....depending on how much below 43 the 'lowest' low goes, will determine if there is an impact to agriculture etc.

As of Sunday pm, NWS Melbourne not talking about a widespread frost or freeze event...just much cooler than the area has seen a certainly below normal.

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SKIES
CLEARING BY TUES NIGHT WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH AND INTERIOR...WITH LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE
FAR SOUTH. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT OUT OF
THE NW AROUND 5-10 MPH SO COULD SEE WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR FREEZING
LATE TUES NIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTH


As of now, NWS Tampa Bay discussion looks like Tampa may get into the 30s, but a widespread frost/freeze event, esp on the coast, is not forecast for the entire forecast area (possibly northern).

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...
FRONT EXITS SOUTH FL TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH WED. ON THU A STRONG COLD DRY CANADIAN
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES DROPS INTO THE U.S. PLAINS
AND PUSHES A DRY FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING. THIS
HIGH THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE GULF COAST/SE U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NORTHERN CWA CAN EXPECT LOWS AROUND
OR BELOW FREEZING INTO THE WEEKEND.


Much cooler than has been seen lately is forecast for Miami...some inland spots will probably drop into the 40s at night, but as of now, no temp readings below 50 are in the NWS forecast for metropolitan Miami-Dade or Broward.

HIGH TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM FOR WED, AND
THIS COOL PATTERN WILL REMAIN AROUND S FL INTO THE WEEKEND AS YET
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI OR SAT REINFORCING THE AIRMASS.

The 00z GFS run shows five sub-43F morning's in a row for Orlando (MCO) next week. It starts Wednesday morning and ends Sunday morning.

[jdray]

NWS JAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
217 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2009

LONG TERM...THU-SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING MEAN LAYER
TROUGHING IN THE ERN CONUS WITH STRONG 5H RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
1045-1050 MB AGAIN NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THU WHICH WILL
MIGRATE SEWD AND USHER IN COLDER AIR TO THE AREA BY THU NIGHT. HARD
FREEZES LOOK MORE PROBABLE OVER INLAND SECTIONS IN THE MORNINGS FROM
WED-SAT. FURTHERMORE...TEENS LOOK POSSIBLE IN COLDER LOCATIONS AND
WILL INDICATE IN THE HWO. AIRMASS LOOKS TO MODIFY GRADUALLY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY YET TEMPS STILL MAY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.

I can live without snow, but upper teens would be nice!

[jinftl]

Same link shows quite a different forecast now...cool to cold..but daytimes in the 50s and 60s some nights in the 30's, and then into the 70s by the 24th...sounds realistic.

Record low daily high temps for this period are in the mid-40s to low-50s...for highs. Record low daily minimums are all in the 20s....low 20s in some cases. A cold stretch on tap, but not record-breaking as of the current forecast.

SNOW FLURRIES Forecasted In Tampa
by Accuweather On January 23-24:
http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/tampa/ ... 1&metric=0
Tampa Wind Chill
Wind Chill:
January:
12: 36*F
13: 35*F
14: 40*F
15: 39*F
16: 31*F
17: 31*F
18: 41*F
19: 28*F,
20: 37*F
21: 45*F
22: 41*F with rain
Snow and Arctic Blast:
23: 20*F, low 35*F, periods of rain converting to snow
24: 31*F, "Mostly Cloudy with a Flurry" WOW.

[JonathanBelles]

Bleh, All that rain I was looking at all day on radar is drying up, figures.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well, that snow flurry is not gonna happen in Tampa, Accuweather going
with the mid 70s on that day. LOL.

Anyway, it might get down to around 45*F in Saint Petersburg
for next week, with several days in the upper 40s. Inland areas
are forecasted to be around 39*F next week at the coldest.

Cold snap not looking nearly as impressive as it was a few days ago
with the GFS bringing the freeze line south of Saint Petersburg on that
cold run; now appears it will be a regular cool spell with mid 40s in Saint Pete.