2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#581 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:15 am

Totally agree with you gboudx. It stands to reason that there has to be several NWS forecasters in the southern Plains who look at the real weather as well as the models. After reading forecast discussions from Norman, OK; Amarillo, TX; and Dallas, TX (three offices that are usually astute at forecasting cold outbreaks), it appears that the consensus sides with the GFS and Euro modeling (i.e. brunt of coldest air hits east of the southern Plains).

Then we have comments from venerable, tried-and-true pro mets like Wxman57, who on the KHOU board is insisting the coldest air slides down due south and impacts the southern Plains hard. Anyone whose been around here very long knows that he's not off base very often.

This is a tough one ... :roll:
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#582 Postby gboudx » Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:25 am

Portastorm wrote:This is a tough one ... :roll:


Yep, and Lidner's discussions have been about a glancing shot too. The NWS offices could be wrong like they were back in December for the infamous snow events down south of here. As of now, I'm off the board until Monday morning. Maybe when I log back in, the discussions will be back to single digits low's. ;)
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#583 Postby double D » Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:41 am

Portastorm wrote:Totally agree with you gboudx. It stands to reason that there has to be several NWS forecasters in the southern Plains who look at the real weather as well as the models. After reading forecast discussions from Norman, OK; Amarillo, TX; and Dallas, TX (three offices that are usually astute at forecasting cold outbreaks), it appears that the consensus sides with the GFS and Euro modeling (i.e. brunt of coldest air hits east of the southern Plains).

Then we have comments from venerable, tried-and-true pro mets like Wxman57, who on the KHOU board is insisting the coldest air slides down due south and impacts the southern Plains hard. Anyone whose been around here very long knows that he's not off base very often.

This is a tough one ... :roll:



Yeah Portastorm, it's sure hard to argue with those three NWS offices for sure.

Well there is still several days before the front makes it's southward push into the U.S, so we still have plenty of time to speculate exactly where the cold air will hit. One thing I know for sure is that somewhere in the U.S. over the next couple of days, it's going to be bitterly cold. :froze:
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#584 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:52 am

Portastorm wrote:Totally agree with you gboudx. It stands to reason that there has to be several NWS forecasters in the southern Plains who look at the real weather as well as the models. After reading forecast discussions from Norman, OK; Amarillo, TX; and Dallas, TX (three offices that are usually astute at forecasting cold outbreaks), it appears that the consensus sides with the GFS and Euro modeling (i.e. brunt of coldest air hits east of the southern Plains).

Then we have comments from venerable, tried-and-true pro mets like Wxman57, who on the KHOU board is insisting the coldest air slides down due south and impacts the southern Plains hard. Anyone whose been around here very long knows that he's not off base very often.

This is a tough one ... :roll:


FYI: wxman57 will be in Winter Park, CO next week and has told us that he'll have his laptop fired up. He has also stated that when he returns home it will only be slightly warmer here (Houston). :ggreen:
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#586 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:11 pm

I haven't taken the time to look at any models yet today, but I am beginning to move toward a semi-glancing blow from this "Arctic Blast" for the Southern Plains and Texas. Models have become more consitent in their trend for more of a glancing blow for the areas West of the Mississippi, at least in the Southern Plains and Texas areas. This goes against my normal thought process when we are dealing with air masses this dense. However, I do still think we could easily see mid 20's at least one day in SE TX. Of course, this could all change again if the models reverse their trend. The rest of the Eastern Conus, imo, needs to be getting ready for an extended, in many instances bitter cold regime. This will probably stretch to the Gulf Coast in some areas to the East of NO(possibly record breaking cold). JMHO
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#587 Postby double D » Sat Jan 10, 2009 5:23 pm

This is a snippet from the Dallas NWS: REGARDING THE LATE WEEK FORECAST...TO SAY IT SUCCINCTLY...THERE
WILL BE NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK OR ABNORMAL COLD SNAP HERE.


Wow! That is a bold statement for an event that is still 5 days away. They may very well be correct, but it's this kind of wording that could come back to bite them.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#588 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jan 10, 2009 6:08 pm

I would love to see them have egg on their face for making call like that so far out. :)

double D wrote:This is a snippet from the Dallas NWS: REGARDING THE LATE WEEK FORECAST...TO SAY IT SUCCINCTLY...THERE
WILL BE NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK OR ABNORMAL COLD SNAP HERE.


Wow! That is a bold statement for an event that is still 5 days away. They may very well be correct, but it's this kind of wording that could come back to bite them.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#589 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 11, 2009 4:06 pm

Man, I don't know who was working the day shift at the NWSFO-EWX ... but this discussion below is a sorry piece of rubbish. I guess the person was busy watching football and didn't want to be bothered. You read this and you'd have no idea of the complexity of the current pattern. Aye carumba! :x

*************
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
202 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MODEL RUN REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S RUN.
A STRONGER UPPER TROF SWINGS DEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY
NIGHT SENDING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO TEXAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH BEFORE MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC, A SERIES OF TROFS
SPEED EAST OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES,
REACHING TEXAS WEDNESDAY. UPPER WINDS ALOFT BECOME NEARLY ZONAL
ALLOWING MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FLOW BACK INTO THE STATE
THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE CREATING
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.

OTHER MINOR DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THIS MEAN TROF POSITION
CAUSING THE TROF TO DIG/RETROGRADE WESTWARD OVER BAJA.

THE NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE
AND DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY AND IS SWEPT EASTWARD
THRU THE CENTRAL U.S., KEEPING THE FLOW ZONAL OVER TEXAS.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

**************
Meanwhile, the forecasters who chose to give some thought to work today have this information:

From NWSFO-Midland/Odessa:
THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS POTENTIALLY
A VERY COLD AIRMASS HOLDING TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CWA. I COULD VERY EASILY THIS THIS HAPPENING MAKING A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ALSO SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING BRINGING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS
GREATLY...ESPECIALLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD BE KEPT QUITE LOW
WITH A COMBINATION OF A COLD AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS LIMITING
INSOLATION. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LIMIT ANY
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING.

From NWSFO-Amarillo:
THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT
COLDER THAN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN BUT IT LOOKS VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE DENSITY OF THE AIRMASS AND PATTERN ALOFT. WITH
THAT IN MIND...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A
GLANCING BLOW OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR.

Even NWSFO-Brownsville!!
COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH ALLOWS
FOR MODIFICATION OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS BY THE TIME IT REACHES
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR REACHING SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
CONTINUES ON THIS TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHIFT
WESTWARD OF THE STRONGER POCKET OF POLAR AIR.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#590 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:54 am

HGX Update tonight suggests that new guidance will need to be watched closely...

DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE REMAINING AT CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SO
A SCEC HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE TX WILL KEEP WINDS CALM AND
SKIES CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT SO LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S FOR SOME AREAS LOOK GOOD.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. THE 18Z GFS CAME IN
WITH STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDING MORE INTO THE PLAINS AND CLOSER TO
SE TX FOR THIS COMING THU/FRI. THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR
.
FORECASTED TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
GUIDANCE NUMBERS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS WERE EVEN
COLDER.
ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE DEFERRED FOR
THE MORNING PACKAGE.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#591 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Jan 12, 2009 7:30 am

Sounds like that "no" has been upgraded to a "maybe so"

Dallas NWS:
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST MON JAN 12 2009/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE TODAY WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DRY VEGETATION....WILL RESULT IN
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS WEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WE WILL SEE A WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE NEW
GFS IS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN YESTERDAY/S 00Z OR 12Z RUNS FOR THE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SOME BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL STILL BE OUR
EAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LOW CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#592 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 12, 2009 9:58 am

I think we may see a lot of that in the next 24-36 hours from some of the NWSFO offices in Texas.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#593 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 12, 2009 11:38 am

Interesting to note that the 12z GFS run today edges the center of the Arctic high pressure somewhat further southwest compared to the 0z run. At 96 hours, the 12z run has the high centered in northern Arkansas while the 0z run at the comparable 108 hours had the high centered in western Kentucky.

The 12z run also shows some overrunning creeping up from south Texas. Hmmm ... this could get a little interested after all! :wink:
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#594 Postby jinftl » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:13 pm

NWS Houston latest discussion doesn't mention GFS any more....seems pretty confident on temps about 10 deg below normal at the coldest part of the week and then moderating....a glancing blow.

THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK THEN ARRIVES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE FAR NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING UP NORTH WILL PROBABLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ANTICIPATED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST
. THERE WILL BE NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK.

A SLOW WARMUP IS STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SOME TIME ON SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT


srainhoutx wrote:HGX Update tonight suggests that new guidance will need to be watched closely...

DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE REMAINING AT CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SO
A SCEC HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE TX WILL KEEP WINDS CALM AND
SKIES CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT SO LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S FOR SOME AREAS LOOK GOOD.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. THE 18Z GFS CAME IN
WITH STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDING MORE INTO THE PLAINS AND CLOSER TO
SE TX FOR THIS COMING THU/FRI. THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR
.
FORECASTED TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
GUIDANCE NUMBERS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS WERE EVEN
COLDER.
ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE DEFERRED FOR
THE MORNING PACKAGE.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#595 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:42 pm

This pattern of a Western Ridge/Eastern trough, us in the middle, glancing blows of cold air, just cold enough for a light freeze, no time for moisture return with Northwest flow aloft and a reinforcing front every 2 or 3 days, no precip, no nothing, well, I'm getting bored.


If we can't have a snow or ice threat, might as well be in thr 70s or 80s each day, outdoor fun weather.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#596 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:12 pm

Well hats off to NWSFO Brownsville. Check out this portion of their afternoon forecast discussion just issued:

NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO COME IN SURGES AND LOOKS TO BE COLDER THAN
WHAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LEAD US TO BELIEVE. UPPER RIDGE
PLACEMENT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND FARTHER WEST INTO MISSOURI VALLEY. THUS A
STRONGER FRONT IS NOW ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME LEADING TO THE TYPICAL
OVERRUNNING LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. ADD ALL THIS
TOGETHER AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WAS CONSERVATIVE WITH
THIS PERIOD STILL FOUR TO FIVE DAYS OUT. LATER SHIFTS ARE LIKELY
TO LOWER EVEN MORE IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS.
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#597 Postby southerngale » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:33 pm

Our NWS forecast for Tuesday night (low of 26) is colder than the forecast for the supposed coldest front of all, Thursday night (low of 27). Of course that could easily change. Yesterday, that 26 for tomorrow night was 31, and a few days ago, it was even warmer than that.

And this morning, the the nearest Weatherbug station to me bottomed out at 28. The next closest one was 30. Upper 20's and low 30's aren't that unusual here. We'll see what the front later this week brings.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#598 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:44 pm

Portastorm wrote:Well hats off to NWSFO Brownsville. Check out this portion of their afternoon forecast discussion just issued:

NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO COME IN SURGES AND LOOKS TO BE COLDER THAN
WHAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LEAD US TO BELIEVE. UPPER RIDGE
PLACEMENT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND FARTHER WEST INTO MISSOURI VALLEY. THUS A
STRONGER FRONT IS NOW ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH TIME LEADING TO THE TYPICAL
OVERRUNNING LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. ADD ALL THIS
TOGETHER AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WAS CONSERVATIVE WITH
THIS PERIOD STILL FOUR TO FIVE DAYS OUT. LATER SHIFTS ARE LIKELY
TO LOWER EVEN MORE IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS.


Midland/Odessa chimes in as well...snipet...

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN RIGHT AROUND PEAK HEATING. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT...
INITIALLY SHOWING COLD...THEN WARMER...NOW COLDER AGAIN. HINDSIGHT
IS 20/20 AND I SHOULD HAVE KNOW TO KEEP THE TEMPS COOLER RATHER
THAN ALLOW THE MODELS TO SWAY ME THE PAST FEW DAYS
...BUT I DO
BELIEVE THEY ARE CORRECT AND WE WILL BE SEEING COLD AIR MOVE INTO
WEST TEXAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SURE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY BUT THIS AIRMASS IS VERY COLD AND DENSE AND IT
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM BACKDOORING INTO THE CWA AND
RESTING AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST OF MAF.
LEFT THURSDAYS
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED WITH 40S FOR HIGH ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW TO OUR WEST SO
ALLOWED THE LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER TO WARM ON FRIDAY AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE. THE MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEM
FRIDAY IS THE AREAL EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD IT HANG ON
OUT WEST THEN MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR AND HIGHS WILL BE TOO WARM.
HOWEVER MODELS PROG THE H85 HIGH CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE GULF ON
FRIDAY BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND KEEPING CLOUDS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE MAY BE VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO PUT IT
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#599 Postby double D » Mon Jan 12, 2009 4:58 pm

Amarillo NWS is still sticking to their guns that this front is not going to be that bad. Don't you just love all the different opinions that come out of each NWS office?

IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE COLD AIR INVASION WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS SEEN FOR FRI...WARMEST WEST AND COOLEST
ERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PSBL THIS WEEKEND BUT THE JURY
IS STILL OUT ON HOW MUCH...IF ANY...COOLING WILL OCCUR. THE OVERALL
UA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DRY ONE FOR THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OVERALL...RETAINED THE INTEGRITY OF THE PREVIOUS FCST PCKG.
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Re: 2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

#600 Postby jinftl » Mon Jan 12, 2009 5:51 pm

I would hope the NWS offices are issuing different opinions....because they are forecasting for different geographic areas!!! Keep in mind that once you get that far west, the brunt of the cold air is going to pass to theeast. An example of a 'glancing blow' in one location. Once again, Texas is the dividing line..this time more of an east/west line than a north/south one.

So in a sense, all of the NWS offices could be right....for their locations... since some areas will get colder and more of an effect (east) than others (west). There would be conflicting NWS products if they were being issued for the same geographic location but were different forecasts.

Kind of a cool example of how the models and forecast maps now are translating into actual numbers from the NWS....can almost draw the extent of the front just by looking at NWS forecasts across the u.s. Also goes to show....to all the 2-week out model watchers....a few hundred miles can mean the difference between 'coldest of season' and 'glancing blow'...and the margin of error so far out can be several hundred miles or more.

double D wrote:Amarillo NWS is still sticking to their guns that this front is not going to be that bad. Don't you just love all the different opinions that come out of each NWS office?

IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE COLD AIR INVASION WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH REBOUNDING TEMPS SEEN FOR FRI...WARMEST WEST AND COOLEST
ERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PSBL THIS WEEKEND BUT THE JURY
IS STILL OUT ON HOW MUCH...IF ANY...COOLING WILL OCCUR. THE OVERALL
UA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DRY ONE FOR THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OVERALL...RETAINED THE INTEGRITY OF THE PREVIOUS FCST PCKG.
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