Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

000
ASCA42 TJSJ 291210
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AKST MON DEC 29 2008

PRZ001-004-291300-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM MOSUNNY 73 70 88 CALM 30.05R
MAYAGUEZ MOSUNNY 68 66 94 NE5 30.03
AGUADILLA MOSUNNY 70 66 88 CALM 30.04S
$$

[cycloneye]

PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST TUE DEC 30 2008

PRZ001-004-301900-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM MOSUNNY 81 66 61 NE8 29.95F
MAYAGUEZ MOSUNNY 84 66 54 E7 29.96F
AGUADILLA MOSUNNY 81 64 57 NE12 29.97F

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 AM AST WED DEC 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE ANALYSIS...AND THE MIMIC TPW
COMPOSITE DEPICT OUR LAST DAY OF THE CALENDAR YEAR TO BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED WITHIN DRIER AIR. 31/0000Z TJSJ SKEW-T REVEALS ONLY
VERY SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB WITH
DRIER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. GFS AND NAM SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGEST ONLY SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTHEAST FLOW AT 1000 MB WILL ADVECT ONLY
EXTREMELY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
ORGANIZED SYSTEM...ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE ONLY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...EXPECT VERY LOW
POP FORECASTS AND ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU JAN 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF THE U.S. THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND ACT TO STEER THE FRAGMENTED REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION TO HELP LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH PASSING
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST FRI JAN 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER FAIRLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TODAY AS DRY AND STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHY MOISTURE MOVING MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT OVERALL...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MORE SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS THEN. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY STEER
ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR
AND MORE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 10 FEET OR GREATER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I feel for you, not having a winter weather thread for Puerto Rico.


Canadian snow shipped to Puerto Rico
(from 2000)

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030928
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SAT JAN 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY...AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PATCHY
MOISTURE IN THIS TRADE WIND FLOW BRINGING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY REMAINS THE LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.
THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. FOR THIS REASON...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
628 AM AST SUN JAN 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY OR EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK...SIGNIFICANT RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE AND
SHOULD PRODUCE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS LOCALLY...
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
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Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST MON JAN 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...ONE MORE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE POISED
TO PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT AND STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO COMBINE WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LOCAL EFFECTS THIS
AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THESE
AREAS...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE OCCURRENCE TO PUT
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP. BY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
BUILDING TO TAKE PLACE...WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE THEN LIKELY
HOLDING ON THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY AS WELL. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
LOCALLY...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST TUE JAN 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...STILL EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIDGE BUILDING TO TAKE
PLACE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE THEN LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROBABLY
SATURDAY AS WELL. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE AN OVERALL DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS LOCALLY...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...THERE WILL STILL BE
OCCASIONAL BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE FIRST OF THESE PATCHES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FA LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED WITH LATER
FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT. A NOTE...WE WILL BE WATCHING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO HISPANIOLA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE FA...BUT THIS IS NOT YET
ETCHED IN STONE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST WED JAN 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL LINGER
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE VI...WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MIXED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED FOR EVERYONE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A VERY SHALLOW PATCH OF MOISTURE CROSSING THE VI THIS MORNING...
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT OVERALL...A MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY DAY APPEARS
TO BE IN STORE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST IS FORESEEN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY IF IT VERIFIES...BUT
EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST THU JAN 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
500MB 3-4 LONG WAVE PATTERN TO PERSIST THOUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND RIDGING OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH SAME PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGE DOES FLATTEN OUT
NEXT 48 HOURS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP WITH NEAR ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AT OUR LATITUDE.

HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN RIDGING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AS A TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE U.S.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD WEST TO EAST ALONG 25-30 NORTH WITH A TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
SURFACE-850 WINDS IN THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE.

WITH WEAKNESS OF RIDGE AT LOW LEVEL...LOCAL AREA WILL WILL BE AREA
OF COL OR WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
AS SUCH WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS
BEST MOISTURE FLUX FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
MORE FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS AS WINDS PICK UP.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST FRI JAN 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE...IN
GENERAL...CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. WITH LOCAL REGION
ON PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH EXITING
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TODAY UNTIL
THE HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS MORNING AND A GENERALLY WEAKER LOW-MID
LEVEL WIND FLOW BELIEVE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A TAD MORE CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE AND HAVE UPPED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO WHERE DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY BE ENHANCED.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
631 AM AST SAT JAN 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT ISOLATED TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SINCE LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS CAME
ONSHORE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MOST OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES FROM LUQUILLO WESTWARD TO ISABELA. ESTIMATED RADAR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AMONG THOSE AFFECTED AREAS RANGED FROM A TRACE TO
FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.


AS OF 530 AM AST SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH LIMITED EFFECT
OVER LAND AREAS. AS THE MORNING GOES BY...THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MONA
PASSAGE.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF DRY AIR PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. ALSO...THE LATEST IMAGE FROM MIMIC-
TPW DEPICTS A DRYING SLOT ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHICH ULTIMATELY...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA BY MID MORNING AND LASTING FOR MUCH OF TODAY...WHICH
WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

OVERALL...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATER
TODAY...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS MOIST AREA WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL
AFTER THE BACK EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE FIELD PASSES BY.
AFTERWARD...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...DO NOT FORESEE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
628 AM AST SUN JAN 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNDER SUBSIDENCE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT LOW LEVELS...PULSES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA OR VIEQUES AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE BY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY
WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR SINCE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WATERS
AND PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THUS FAR...ESTIMATED RADAR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL.

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SHOWING FEW FEATURES THAT MAY BE
AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 4 TO 12 HOURS. THE FIRST
FEATURE IS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS OF 0930Z. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE SECOND PATCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO BY MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

AFTERWARD...A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL TAKE CONTROL OVER THE
LOCAL AREA FOR A PLEASANT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ARE BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH MAY RESULT ON AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

[cycloneye]

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEATHER DOPPLER
RADAR OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

THIS RELATIVE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING PARTS OF THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AS WELL AS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

AROUND MID MORNING...A GROUP OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM
THE EAST ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO CLOSE TO NOON TIME. THIS WILL CREATE VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACCOMPANYING WITH PASSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. OTHER THAN THAT...DO NOT FORESEE...ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CHANGES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BESIDE SEEING PASSING
CLOUDS AND ONE OR TWO SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AUGMENTING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THAT PERIOD. STAY TUNED FOR MORE ON THIS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES

[Gustywind]

Tkanks Luis, how are you? HI!
Always there during the good and the worst moments! That's great for all that weather forecasts, i appreciate. See you and happy new year! I wish more friendly links here and more tolerance too that will be "perfect"!
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Tkanks Luis, how are you? HI!
Always there during the good and the worst moments! That's great for all that weather forecasts, i appreciate. See you and happy new year! I wish more friendly links here and more tolerance too that will be "perfect"!
Gustywind

Happy new year to you and happy Hurricane season tracking in a few months.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST TUE JAN 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
HALF OF AN INCH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS MIMIC TPW
COMPOSITE INDICATED THAT A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATED THAT THIS GENERALLY
DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT) EXTENDING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...
APPROACHING TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH TO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE NEED TO STAY TUNE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 140816
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
416 AM AST WED JAN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LOOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE FA. IN
THE MEANTIME...THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MINIMAL.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...
SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST LIMITING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS MIMIC TPW COMPOSITE INDICATED THAT THIS
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL DEVELOP INTO A MID
TO UPPER LOW...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MID TO UPPER LOW WILL ALSO INDUCE AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THE MID TO UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH TO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASING THE INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL LAST AT
LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WE NEED TO STAY
TUNE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES DURING THE NEXT SHIFTS.

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