2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

It was chilly this morning, and should be chilly all week, with reinforcing fronts/glancing blows of cold air all week.


But, IIRC, we may be a tad cooler than normal, but chilly spells happen every Winter here in the mid-Latitudes.

[Portastorm]

It was chilly this morning, and should be chilly all week, with reinforcing fronts/glancing blows of cold air all week.


But, IIRC, we may be a tad cooler than normal, but chilly spells happen every Winter here in the mid-Latitudes.

Austin's forecasted high on Friday of 45 degrees is roughly 20 degrees BELOW NORMAL. I would consider that more than "a tad cooler than normal."

[srainhoutx]

For grins and I believe it is scheduled to go off line this year or next and has not been updated/fine tuned in years, NGM 12Z does drop the Artic High due S in the Plains...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

If it scores a coup and the High Pressure settles over TX/LA, then it may have to be considered. Sometimes "older is better".

[Ed Mahmoud]

It was chilly this morning, and should be chilly all week, with reinforcing fronts/glancing blows of cold air all week.


But, IIRC, we may be a tad cooler than normal, but chilly spells happen every Winter here in the mid-Latitudes.

Austin's forecasted high on Friday of 45 degrees is roughly 20 degrees BELOW NORMAL. I would consider that more than "a tad cooler than normal."

Cooler than normal, but Austin and Houston have a day with maxes in the 40s almost every winter.


And a night time low in the mid 20s is well below normal, but at least one night gets that cool, from my general recollection, every second or third year.


Sorry, call me an excitement junky, but give me more snow, or highs in the 30s. Or lows in the low 20s or teens.

Or, better yet, hold the lows in the low 20s, and just give me highs in the 30s with freezing/frozen, as my pygmy date palm has nasty spikes, making it an unpleasant experience to wrap against the cold.

[jinftl]

According to NWS Houston, coldest night expected through the period is tonight....truly a glancing blow of the arctic air to your east.

THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR THE UPCOMING PD LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE ONLY AREAS THAT LOOK TO
STAY UP IN THE 30S TONIGHT ARE METRO HOUSTON AND COASTAL AREAS

NWS Forecast for: Houston TX
Issued by: National Weather Service Houston, TX
Last Update: 9:33 am CST Jan 13, 2009

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Today: Sunny, with a high near 54. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 32. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 62. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40. Calm wind becoming north between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 50.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.

M.L.King Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.

Visit your local NWS office at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx

[southerngale]

It was chilly this morning, and should be chilly all week, with reinforcing fronts/glancing blows of cold air all week.


But, IIRC, we may be a tad cooler than normal, but chilly spells happen every Winter here in the mid-Latitudes.

Austin's forecasted high on Friday of 45 degrees is roughly 20 degrees BELOW NORMAL. I would consider that more than "a tad cooler than normal."

Cooler than normal, but Austin and Houston have a day with maxes in the 40s almost every winter.


And a night time low in the mid 20s is well below normal, but at least one night gets that cool, from my general recollection, every second or third year.


Sorry, call me an excitement junky, but give me more snow, or highs in the 30s. Or lows in the low 20s or teens.

Or, better yet, hold the lows in the low 20s, and just give me highs in the 30s with freezing/frozen, as my pygmy date palm has nasty spikes, making it an unpleasant experience to wrap against the cold.

Almost every winter? I'm not looking at any statistics at the moment, but since over here, we have days with maxes in the 40's and 30's every winter, I know Austin does as well, and I'm pretty sure Houston does too, although Houston, particularly metro Houston, is usually a little warmer than us, so it's possible some of our upper 30's are lower 40's over there.

[Johnny]

If the forecast holds, I don't consider this anything out of the ordinary, that's for sure. A true solid arctic front (with cloud cover) would keep us at or below freezing for day time high's. When is the last time we had high's below freezing? Give me some that and then I will get excited. I guess this is another one of those 'all bark and no bite' for us here in the deep south. I've kind of gotten used to that. Clear skies, no wind and temps below freezing....boring. I guess that's what I get for living way down yonder.

No updates from Jeff I guess? I guess that goes to show how excited he is about this also. lol

[Ed Mahmoud]

Almost every winter? I'm not looking at any statistics at the moment, but since over here, we have days with maxes in the 40's and 30's every winter, I know Austin does as well, and I'm pretty sure Houston does too, although Houston, particularly metro Houston, is usually a little warmer than us, so it's possible some of our upper 30's are lower 40's over there.

That actually supports what I was saying, that a day with forecast highs in the 40s, while not common, isn't exactly rare.

[mysterymachinebl]

If the forecast holds, I don't consider this anything out of the ordinary, that's for sure. A true solid arctic front (with cloud cover) would keep us at or below freezing for day time high's. When is the last time we had high's below freezing? Give me some that and then I will get excited. I guess this is another one of those 'all bark and no bite' for us here in the deep south. I've kind of gotten used to that. Clear skies, no wind and temps below freezing....boring. I guess that's what I get for living way down yonder.

No updates from Jeff I guess? I guess that goes to show how excited he is about this also. lol

Well, there were a few days in December when it didn't get above 30 here in Dallas. But, I agree, the fronts this week are nothing unusual. More like typical January cool downs with a typical quick warm up.

[Ed Mahmoud]

34º F at the Big Airport, some locations into the Upper 20s. B-r-r-r-r.


Not like a Minnesoata b-r-r-r-r, and this happens pretty much every Winter, but today is garbage day.

[vbhoutex]

We managed 29.3ºf at the house here in Spring Branch this morning. Cold by my standards but nothing out of the ordinary for a winter in Houston. Now the 12ºf they are forecasting at my Mom's location in NW FL is cold by anyones standards!!!

[boca]

We managed 29.3ºf at the house here in Spring Branch this morning. Cold by my standards but nothing out of the ordinary for a winter in Houston. Now the 12ºf they are forecasting at my Mom's location in NW FL is cold by anyones standards!!!

Hey vbhoutex check this out in the Florida panhandle in Laurell Hill the low is supposed to be 9 deg.Here in S FL the low will be 50 deg.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

[Portastorm]

Ah, that's alright ... you folks in the Southeast enjoy what you are getting now. While we Texans will "enjoy" our below normal temps for a day or two. If the longer range GFS and European verify, winter will hit Texas with a vengeance by the end of next week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

To get to the GFS's 240 hour depiction of a somewhat McFarland-ish looking 500 mb starting to set up, first we have the Western ridge de-amplifying and shifting overhead, suggesting a nice interlude. GFS surface map has sub-freezing air through and shortly after just glancing the Northern part of Texas. Plus it is the GFS after Hour 180.

The Euro has a broad trough leaning back into the Southwest, but the flow over Texas would be Pacific air at Day 10. Maybe that trough sharpens up if the ridge pokes more into Alaska. Who knows?


But a sharp cold snap late next week looks iffy, at best.

[Portastorm]

Didn't say anything about a "sharp cold snap", Edward.

The Euro at the end of its range is known for holding back Southwest lows, as it does in today's 0z run for 216 hours and beyond. Overall the pattern shifts late next week (and this is supported by the GFS ensembles) with the mean trough being centered over the western and central U.S.

Let's see how it shakes out but I like our chances in about 10 days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Didn't say anything about a "sharp cold snap", Edward.

The Euro at the end of its range is known for holding back Southwest lows, as it does in today's 0z run for 216 hours and beyond. Overall the pattern shifts late next week (and this is supported by the GFS ensembles) with the mean trough being centered over the western and central U.S.

Let's see how it shakes out but I like our chances in about 10 days.

I agree with you Portastorm. I think the west and the plains will be back in the center of the cold starting in about 7-14 days.

[jasons2k]

I have to echo some of the other sentiments on here - we had a low this morning of 29, the coldest morning of the winter season so far and possibly for the whole winter. Considering it is January 14th and we're now sitting at the minimun normals/averages for the entire season, this is nothing unusual at all or worth getting worked-up over. :yawn:

[srainhoutx]

Ah, that's alright ... you folks in the Southeast enjoy what you are getting now. While we Texans will "enjoy" our below normal temps for a day or two. If the longer range GFS and European verify, winter will hit Texas with a vengeance by the end of next week.

I agree Portastorm. The cold trough will be placed further W than where it is now and the Sub Tropical Jet looks to get involved as well. Hopefully some drought relief.

[southerngale]

I agree Portastorm. The cold trough will be placed further W than where it is now and the Sub Tropical Jet looks to get involved as well. Hopefully some drought relief.

Drought? We're certainly not saturated or anything over here, but no drought conditions at all, either. Seems to be just perfect for outdoor activities.

The low this morning at the closest Weatherbug station was 26, and the next closest was 27. I think that's the lowest we've reached so far this season.

Ah, that's alright ... you folks in the Southeast enjoy what you are getting now. While we Texans will "enjoy" our below normal temps for a day or two. If the longer range GFS and European verify, winter will hit Texas with a vengeance by the end of next week.

No, it won't. Don't fall for it, Portastorm. Just back away from the computer.

[gboudx]

Drought? We're certainly not saturated or anything over here, but no drought conditions at all, either. Seems to be just perfect for outdoor activities.

This is what Portastorm is referring to:





http://www.txwin.net/Monitoring/Meteoro ... t/pdsi.htm