Florida Weather
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As of right now, the coldest temp projected for my north pinellas neighborhood on the nws point and click is 40 on Wed and Fri nights providing us with a Ben Graham-style margin of safety with respect to freeze potential. Tampa looks like mid 30's. Even the precious strawberry fields of plant city only projects a low of 33 and i've seen those hardy farmers ice the stawberries with no ill effects with temps in the mid 20's. guidance could drop substantially from here and we would still be warmer than the early jan '08 freeze, an event that produced negligible damage at worst.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
Cancun/Cozumel/Playa Del Carmen all had rain last night. Been keeping contact with my brother and he says its been nice, but wishes it was warmer. Thick clouds on visible across the gulf. Tropical discussion says the front should be from middle Cuba to Honduras by tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what happens in regards to temps.
Key West is going with high 60's through Monday....?
Miami says low 70's Sun/Mon... Its -10F here right now!
Key West is going with high 60's through Monday....?
Miami says low 70's Sun/Mon... Its -10F here right now!

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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Looks like a good juicy cell popped over Belize and is heading northeastward off Mexican coast.
83F in Miami today! No fair
Looks like a good juicy cell popped over Belize and is heading northeastward off Mexican coast.
83F in Miami today! No fair
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
Progression towards cooler is going to come in stages to south florida....not going to wake up to temps too cold on wednesday morning...actually the forecast low of 58 deg is only 2 deg below normal. But since we didn't get below 70 deg last night, cooler nonetheless.
NWS Miami mentions a possible ne wind component by the weekend, which could moderate the overnight lows, esp on the coastline, from what the forecast is now. If Miami is going to break 50 deg (official station at the airport....no doubt inland and rural areas will be colder), Thursday night looks like it has the best shot....maybe.
NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 9:52 am EST Jan 13, 2009
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------.
Tonight: A chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 69. .
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Friday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.
Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 69. .
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
M.L.King Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
NWS Miami mentions a possible ne wind component by the weekend, which could moderate the overnight lows, esp on the coastline, from what the forecast is now. If Miami is going to break 50 deg (official station at the airport....no doubt inland and rural areas will be colder), Thursday night looks like it has the best shot....maybe.
NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 9:52 am EST Jan 13, 2009
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------.
Tonight: A chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 69. .
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Friday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.
Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 69. .
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
M.L.King Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
Jinftl, another thing to watch for is what kind of cloud cover lingers across Southern Florida after the cold front(s) pass. NWS Miami has mentioned repeatedly in discos about the fact that if some cloud cover remains, overnight lows will have to be nudged up some.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
I notice how the NWS keeps mentioning that in their Discussions...I guess it is a bit surprising to me still, that given the amount and strength of cold air, that temps aren't going to go lower than forecast in the metro areas...even to the coast. It would seem...at least from my recollection of cold events in the past 10-15 years....that with this kind of airmass we would see temps maybe up to 10 deg colder at night than currently forecast.
It must be a combo of possible cirrus cloudcover, an airmass losing some of its punch as it heads this far south, a possible ne component (even if just partial) to the wind by friday and into the weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see rural areas of parts of South Florida maybe even have a frost advisory later this week. Other than a wind chill advisory maybe early friday morning...and certainly a fire weather watch...it actually sounds like a couple of really nice days on tap....weather we wish for in august.
It must be a combo of possible cirrus cloudcover, an airmass losing some of its punch as it heads this far south, a possible ne component (even if just partial) to the wind by friday and into the weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see rural areas of parts of South Florida maybe even have a frost advisory later this week. Other than a wind chill advisory maybe early friday morning...and certainly a fire weather watch...it actually sounds like a couple of really nice days on tap....weather we wish for in august.
gatorcane wrote:Jinftl, another thing to watch for is what kind of cloud cover lingers across Southern Florida after the cold front(s) pass. NWS Miami has mentioned repeatedly in discos about the fact that if some cloud cover remains, overnight lows will have to be nudged up some.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
The 12z GFS MOS is now showing a freeze in Orlando on Saturday morning...
...It also shows four consecutive nights in the 30s for the city, which is a rarity.
GFSX MOS (MEX)
KMCO GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/13/2009 1200 UTC
FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20|WED CLIMO
N/X 43 63| 39 62| 37 58| 32 61| 35 66| 44 66| 44 66| 45 49 72
TMP 43 54| 41 52| 39 47| 34 51| 38 57| 46 56| 46 56| 47
DPT 37 37| 32 31| 29 30| 26 31| 31 44| 41 41| 42 40| 42
WND 12 8| 7 12| 12 13| 10 9| 7 9| 13 12| 14 15| 7
P12 24 8| 10 12| 12 8| 6 3| 7 13| 14 9| 13 11| 9 12 15
P24 24| 14| 13| 6| 13| 23| 17| 22
Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| |
Q24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| |
T12 3 0| 0 0| 1 1| 3 0| 1 2| 4 1| 3 2| 1
T24 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2
...It also shows four consecutive nights in the 30s for the city, which is a rarity.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
Florida temps show a state still very much in transition from warm to cooler to get colder in the far north..think there is a front between jax and orl?
FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1200 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
PENSACOLA 56
PANAMA CITY 57
TALLAHASSEE 52
GAINESVILLE 50
JACKSONVILLE 48
ORLANDO INTL 76
DAYTONA BEACH 64
MELBOURNE 77
VERO BEACH 78
TAMPA 71
SARASOTA 75
FT MYERS 77
KEY WEST INTL 79
W PALM BEACH 78
FT LAUDERDALE 81
MIAMI 81
FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1200 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
PENSACOLA 56
PANAMA CITY 57
TALLAHASSEE 52
GAINESVILLE 50
JACKSONVILLE 48
ORLANDO INTL 76
DAYTONA BEACH 64
MELBOURNE 77
VERO BEACH 78
TAMPA 71
SARASOTA 75
FT MYERS 77
KEY WEST INTL 79
W PALM BEACH 78
FT LAUDERDALE 81
MIAMI 81
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
The dryness in Florida is something that is going to become more and more of an issue in the coming weeks and months....and this dry, windy airmass is not going to help the situation. There is growing concern, even from state officials, that the upcoming spring fire season could be a very bad one without signifificant and numerous rain events before then.
Released last week:
Bronson Warns Of Increasing Wildfire Threat;
Asks Public’s Help To Minimize Risk
TALLAHASSEE - Florida Agriculture and Consumer Services Commissioner Charles H. Bronson today advised residents that below average rainfall for the last four to five months has significantly increased the state’s wildfire risk.
The torrential rain associated with Tropical Storm Fay last summer has been all but offset by the recent drought. In fact, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which measures available soil moisture and runs from 0 (saturated) to 800 (desert-like), currently stands at 511 – more than double the normal drought index this time of year.
“We are asking both residents and visitors alike to be careful with any outdoor burning and to check with their local officials to determine if there is a burn ban in effect in their area,” Bronson said.
http://www.doacs.state.fl.us/press/2009/01072009.html

Released last week:
Bronson Warns Of Increasing Wildfire Threat;
Asks Public’s Help To Minimize Risk
TALLAHASSEE - Florida Agriculture and Consumer Services Commissioner Charles H. Bronson today advised residents that below average rainfall for the last four to five months has significantly increased the state’s wildfire risk.
The torrential rain associated with Tropical Storm Fay last summer has been all but offset by the recent drought. In fact, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, which measures available soil moisture and runs from 0 (saturated) to 800 (desert-like), currently stands at 511 – more than double the normal drought index this time of year.
“We are asking both residents and visitors alike to be careful with any outdoor burning and to check with their local officials to determine if there is a burn ban in effect in their area,” Bronson said.
http://www.doacs.state.fl.us/press/2009/01072009.html

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- DESTRUCTION5
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000
FXUS62 KMLB 130927
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
...DRIER AIR WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE SENSITIVITY STARTING WEDNESDAY...
CURRENT/TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE
OFFSHORE THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER OF THE TWO OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX. THESE TWO LOWS
ARE CONNECTED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS IT DOES THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH
ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST. THROUGH THE DAY BOTH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE WESTERN LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY. A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ENSURE CLEAN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY EVENING. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST CHANCES NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT AND KEEP 60% NORTH AND
TAPER DOWN TO 50% CHANCES SOUTHWARD. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING FOR
THIS EVENT SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE ZONES.
HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STRIKE OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...MAKING FOR A DREARY DAY. A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL ENABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY (15-20 MPH) THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S NORTH FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 70S LIKELY
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE QUITE AS THICK.
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHWARD WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE LAND AREAS (SPACE & TREASURE COASTS)
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SOUTH ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST.
WED-FRI...BROAD LONG WAVE MID/UPR TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL AN EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEEK`S END. A POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE LONGER WAVE FEATURE...WITH
AN "ALBERTA CLIPPER" PUSHING THRU THE MID ATLC STATES WED-EARLY THU.
COOL SFC HIGH PRES OVER FL WED WILL GET REINFORCED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH THU...WHOSE CTR WILL SLIDE FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE
SERN CONUS BY FRI. NEAR FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED IN SOME SPOTS NORTH
OF I-4 (MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS) THU/FRI MORNINGS...THOUGH PROBABLY
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH (LK GEORGE-OCALA FOREST) ON THU. FCST
MAXES ONLY IN THE U50S NORTH TO M60S SOUTH MOST AREAS WED-THU...AND
L50S NORTH TO NR 60F SOUTH FOR FRI.
OF PARTICULAR IMPACT/CONCERN WILL BE VERY LOW WCI`S THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15MPH THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT CAA RESULTING SUB-FREEZING WCI`S ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO LAKE OKEE. MIN WCI`S ARE PROGGED NR 20F ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AND U20S ENCROACHING ON OUTLYING SUBURBS OF THE GREATER
ORLANDO AREA.
POSN OF SFC HIGH AROUND 12Z FRI LEADS TO SOME VEERING OF THE FLOW IN
THE H925-LYR TWD SLGT ONSHORE COMPONENT. WITHTHE GFS/NAM AND ECM ALL
SPITTING OUT SOME QPF ALONG OR REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST
CTRD AROUND THAT TIME. THIS PIQUED MY INTEREST IN POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SPITS OF SNOW...AND A QUICK REVIEW OF THE 1/24/03 AND 1/03/08
EVENTS SHOWS THE AIR MASS THIS TIME AROUND IS PROGGED TO BE NOT
QUITE AS COLD OVERALL (H85 0C LINE IS FARTHER NORTH BY ABOUT 80-100
MILES...WHICH MAKES FLAKES IN THE AIR LESS LIKELY...BUT WITHIN THE
REALM OF POSSIBLITY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
Tony mentions snow? WOW

National Weather Service
Area Forecast Discussion
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
[Printable]
Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here
000
FXUS62 KMLB 130927
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
...DRIER AIR WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE SENSITIVITY STARTING WEDNESDAY...
CURRENT/TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE
OFFSHORE THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER OF THE TWO OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX. THESE TWO LOWS
ARE CONNECTED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS IT DOES THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH
ASSOCIATED OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST. THROUGH THE DAY BOTH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE WESTERN LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY. A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ENSURE CLEAN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY EVENING. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST CHANCES NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT AND KEEP 60% NORTH AND
TAPER DOWN TO 50% CHANCES SOUTHWARD. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING FOR
THIS EVENT SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE ZONES.
HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STRIKE OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...MAKING FOR A DREARY DAY. A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL ENABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY (15-20 MPH) THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S NORTH FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 70S LIKELY
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE QUITE AS THICK.
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHWARD WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE LAND AREAS (SPACE & TREASURE COASTS)
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SOUTH ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST.
WED-FRI...BROAD LONG WAVE MID/UPR TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL AN EASTERN CONUS THROUGH WEEK`S END. A POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE LONGER WAVE FEATURE...WITH
AN "ALBERTA CLIPPER" PUSHING THRU THE MID ATLC STATES WED-EARLY THU.
COOL SFC HIGH PRES OVER FL WED WILL GET REINFORCED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH THU...WHOSE CTR WILL SLIDE FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE
SERN CONUS BY FRI. NEAR FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED IN SOME SPOTS NORTH
OF I-4 (MAINLY SHELTERED AREAS) THU/FRI MORNINGS...THOUGH PROBABLY
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH (LK GEORGE-OCALA FOREST) ON THU. FCST
MAXES ONLY IN THE U50S NORTH TO M60S SOUTH MOST AREAS WED-THU...AND
L50S NORTH TO NR 60F SOUTH FOR FRI.
OF PARTICULAR IMPACT/CONCERN WILL BE VERY LOW WCI`S THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15MPH THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT CAA RESULTING SUB-FREEZING WCI`S ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO LAKE OKEE. MIN WCI`S ARE PROGGED NR 20F ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AND U20S ENCROACHING ON OUTLYING SUBURBS OF THE GREATER
ORLANDO AREA.
POSN OF SFC HIGH AROUND 12Z FRI LEADS TO SOME VEERING OF THE FLOW IN
THE H925-LYR TWD SLGT ONSHORE COMPONENT. WITHTHE GFS/NAM AND ECM ALL
SPITTING OUT SOME QPF ALONG OR REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST
CTRD AROUND THAT TIME. THIS PIQUED MY INTEREST IN POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SPITS OF SNOW...AND A QUICK REVIEW OF THE 1/24/03 AND 1/03/08
EVENTS SHOWS THE AIR MASS THIS TIME AROUND IS PROGGED TO BE NOT
QUITE AS COLD OVERALL (H85 0C LINE IS FARTHER NORTH BY ABOUT 80-100
MILES...WHICH MAKES FLAKES IN THE AIR LESS LIKELY...BUT WITHIN THE
REALM OF POSSIBLITY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
Tony mentions snow? WOW

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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
000
FXUS62 KJAX 131913
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
...RAIN TO COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING...
...COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE 2003 POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...
.SHORT TERM...MAIN LOW PRESSURE ON THE MSAS ANALYSIS HAS NOW TAKEN
SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT JUST SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA. ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC PROCESSES HAVE
DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY WITH THE WEAKER LOW...STILL PLENTY OF LIFT
TO KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE AREA. JUST BEGINNING TO SEE THE
BACK END OF PRECIP SHIELD MOVE THROUGH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
ZONES...BUT WILL NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF PRECIP AXIS UNTIL
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EJECTS EAST AFT 21Z.
BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SLOW EXODUS OF CLOUD
COVER...MANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
GETTING OUT OF THE 40S AND HAVE ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z WITH A SECONDARY SHOT
COMING IN AT 06Z...PROVIDING THE MAIN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN ADVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS EVENT AND
ONLY 4 TO 6 HOURS OF GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...HAVE STAYED ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING BUT
NO FREEZE WARNINGS ANTICIPATED AT TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR WED
AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO VALUES
OVER MOST AREAS UNDER CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...DRIVING
EVEN COLDER TEMPS INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY
AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN STAYED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO WARRANT MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCALES AND A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF FLORIDA.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...1045 MB...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THU WITH A PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN AND PURE PENINSULAR FLOW EXPECTED. HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN WILL BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND AN INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER.
...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
DESPITE THE FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THIS...THE REALLY
COLD AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN
ADVECTIVE TYPE FREEZE IN STORE WITH MODELS INDICATING 10 MPH WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED
TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. WILL ALSO BE
SEEING HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF GA AND INLAND NE
FLORIDA. WITH ONLY 3 TO 5 DEGREES SEPARATING THE ENSEMBLE
EXTREMES....CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS FAR OUT. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON....IT WILL INDEED BE A STRUGGLE TO THAW THINGS
OUT BUT RECORD LOW MAXIMA SHOULD NOT BE IN JEOPARDY WITH MID TO
UPPER 40S EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF 1035 HIGH SATURDAY
MORNING...ALL WX PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE COMING IN LINE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE EVENT OVER OUR AREA. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MODELS TYPICALLY HANDLING THESE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES POORLY LEADS ME TO BELIEVE WE WILL BE AT
IF NOT BELOW ADVERTISED ENSEMBLE VALUES. WILL NOT GO THAT LOW JUST
YET BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SEE UPPER TEENS OVER MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE COLDEST TEMPS SINCE JAN 2003.
Not often you will see the whole state under a possibility of a freeze watch.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
This is a potent arctic blast. I could see the coldest temperatures since
January 2008's 32*F temperature at my house. Tampa Forecasted to be down to 33 with upper 20s north/east. Saint Petersburg is forecasted to be around 39-42*F.
January 2008's 32*F temperature at my house. Tampa Forecasted to be down to 33 with upper 20s north/east. Saint Petersburg is forecasted to be around 39-42*F.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: cooler pattern
Tallahassee, FL is now forecasted to hit 17F on Friday night.


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- gatorcane
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ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO WARRANT MID TO
UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCALES AND A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF FLORIDA.
This simply is not true. It will not be strong enough to cause freeze warnings for most of Southern Florida south of Lake O. Right now, NWS Miami is forecasting lows in the lower 50s SE metro and upper 40s to around 50 in metro Palm Beach (its possible and likely NWS may nudge the lows down to the mid 40s but that is about as low as I see it right now) It's possible inland Lee and Collier county could get close but forget Palm Beach County south into Broward, and Miami-Dade from even getting close to freezing, not if the winds stay up as forecasted.
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