EZ Winter For Deep South & New Orleans

[Sean in New Orleans]

Not bad at all for 2009. Traditionally this next week is our coldest week and the news says "Cold Air" is coming---I don't call 30F in New Orleans that cold. I call it normal. Unless something major happens in the next 3 or so weeks, we're going to get off with a non-Winter. It snowed on Dec. 11 and that was a treat, but, even on that day, temps were in the mid 30's. For those concerned about the deep hard freeze in New Orleans or along the immediate Gulf Coast, which we haven't seen in years, it doesn't look like we'll be seeing any low 20's or teens this year. We may have to put some plastic over our plants this week, but, hey, who's complaining? Not me. Another EZ year. Bring on the mild Mardi Gras!!! Glad we appear to be getting off with yet another mild year. I'm ready to start doing my yard work.

[Kennethb]

So far we have had a New Orleans winter here in Baton Rouge. Most of the tropicals and perennials that usually have died back before Christmas continue to thrive and beginning to put out new growth.

All of the early winter flowering trees and shurbs (quince, Taiwan flowering cherry, Japanese Magnolias, swamp red maples), are blooming, about a month ahead of schedule.

[Stormcenter]

I believe it was actually 33 degrees during the snow event in New Orleans on Dec. 11th. I also believe
it's a bit premature to closed the door on any winter 20 lows or winter precip. on Jan. 11th 2009.
Hey but we all have an opinion so we shall see.

[PTrackerLA]

I tend to agree with you and this weeks arctic outbreak appears very unimpressive at this time (upper 20's at the coldest forecasted now). However the last time we reached the teens was back in February of 1996 and there have been other memorable cold outbreaks during the month of February so we have a ways to go. The way the winter has gone I wouldn't be surprised if this is our coldest week.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I tend to agree with you and this weeks arctic outbreak appears very unimpressive at this time (upper 20's at the coldest forecasted now). However the last time we reached the teens was back in February of 1996 and there have been other memorable cold outbreaks during the month of February so we have a ways to go. The way the winter has gone I wouldn't be surprised if this is our coldest week.

Exactly....that's all they are talking about is the artic air that is coming....and the coldest forecast low is 32F for New Orleans over the next few days. Excuse me? That's not cold. We got colder than that last year. As stated--EZ Winter.

[sunny]

Well Sean I beg to differ - I think 32 IS cold. They don't advise you to cover your pipes and plants just for the heck of it!

[gboudx]

SWS for SELA.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... +Statement

Also, the lowest "normal" temp for NO is about 42 degrees. So a low of 30 is not normal.

[jinftl]

You are correct the lowest 'average low' for the year is 42 deg....but record lows for each day in the winter are quite a bit colder. A better indicator of how low temps compare to a typical winter is what is the average annual minimum temperature....in other words, in a given year, what can the absolute lowest temp recorded be expected to be.

This is very much correllated to the USDA Plant Hardiness maps...as plants and vegetation can survive below the average low....but there is a limit to how much lower.

According to the map below, the south shore of Lake Ponchartrain...including New Orleans...can expect in a typical year to have an absolute lowest temp in the 20-25 deg range. Obviously some years will not see temps that low, some will see even colder.

If 30 is the lowest temp so far this season, it is a bit above what we would expect the absolute lowest to be....but the snowfall experienced certainly makes the winter season already...and no matter what else happens or doesn't happen....memorable.

SWS for SELA.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... +Statement

Also, the lowest "normal" temp for NO is about 42 degrees. So a low of 30 is not normal.

[MGC]

A winter without a low temp below 32 in not uncommon in New Orleans. I remember several winters growing up in NO that the grass kept growing and my brother had to mow grass in Jan and Feb. There were the rare deep freezes like in 1962 when it got down to the upper teens on the south shore. We had a goldfish pond in our backyard, about a foot deep. The ice looked pretty thick to me so I tried to walk on it. I ended up with a very cold foot.....MGC

[shibumi]

New Orleans temps are extremely mitigated by the water that nearly surrounds it. it is not unusual at all to go years without an "official" freeze...but suburbs are quite a bit colder....

As far as the Gulf Coast....you cannot base it's weather on New Orleans......there have been several hard freezes to the gulf coast in recent years.....esp east of LA....

Also wording wise, this is not traditionally the coldest week in the winter...it is the week where the 'average" lows and highs are the coldest....it is not the same as to say it is usually the coldest week....

PS - astronomical winter is exactly 22 days long....the season is 90 days!

[jasons2k]

I'll chime in:

Don't confuse "normal" with "average".

Our average low right now is also near 41-42 degrees. But there is nothing abnormal for us to dip into the upper 20's in the middle of January....or for us to have a low in the 50's either.

I really don't like it when TV stations/NWS/etc. say "today's normal low is 42 degrees" when they are really referring to the average. Going by that definition, very few days of the year are actually "normal". And if so few days actually hit your "normal" values, how can one consider it normal in the first place...? If we hit our "normal" high and low temps only 5 or 10 days out of the year, how can one call those "normal" days when the other 360 days are something different? It makes no sense....it's like saying 70 degrees at the beginning of March is "unseasonably warm" when it happens every year. 70 degrees is "unseasonable" maybe in January or August, but not in March.

One that takes the cake is a few years ago there was a hard freeze forecasted in San Antonio in January and the discussion said it would be "unseasonably cold"....as opposed to seeing a freeze in what...August? I actually emailed the NWS office asking what they meant by that and they said it was unusual for them to experience a hard freeze so it would be "unseasonably cold". I replied back and said, maybe "unusually cold" would be a better description...maybe???...but the season was the correct one, right??

...ugh...I digress. I read into this too much sometimes.

Anyway, so I stick to referring to those numbers as "averages", which is what they really are. If we have a low of 29 or 30 in January, that's pretty normal for Houston. It may indeed be "below average" but it's not abnormal/unusual/unseasonal.

Now if we get down to the teens, then I might perk-up and say that's not so normal after all. But I haven't seen that yet in the 5 years I've lived here on-and-off.

[jasons2k]

We may have to put some plastic over our plants this week, but, hey, who's complaining?

Tip from a pretty seasoned gardener: never, ever, ever, ever use plastic to cover plants. They will suffocate and/or burn-up as soon as the sun rises. Always use a cloth cover (such as a sheet), burlap, or just buy some plant covers. They sell them at most nurseries and even at Home Depot now. Any freeze protection must be able to breathe.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I remember many, many winters in the past where we dipped well into the twenties and I remember quite a few occasions where we have dipped into the teens. I remember 14F one Christmas (was young, but, think it was 1983). 32F is not uncommon every winter in New Orleans, at all. It was 28F last year one morning. I remember it as I was heading to work and they mentioned it on the morning news.

[Stormcenter]

I believe in went down to 11F in 1989. The high was only 18F!!!

I remember many, many winters in the past where we dipped well into the twenties and I remember quite a few occasions where we have dipped into the teens. I remember 14F one Christmas (was young, but, think it was 1983). 32F is not uncommon every winter in New Orleans, at all. It was 28F last year one morning. I remember it as I was heading to work and they mentioned it on the morning news.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I believe in went down to 11F in 1989. The high was only 18F!!!

I remember many, many winters in the past where we dipped well into the twenties and I remember quite a few occasions where we have dipped into the teens. I remember 14F one Christmas (was young, but, think it was 1983). 32F is not uncommon every winter in New Orleans, at all. It was 28F last year one morning. I remember it as I was heading to work and they mentioned it on the morning news.

That is correct.....silly cold. With that said, I do see that the NE counties of MS are predicted to dip to 1F tomorrow night!

Forecast for Iuka, MS:

Tonight: A slight chance of flurries after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 1. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

[Sean in New Orleans]

And Friday night it is forecast to be 7F around Baker (north of Crestview) in the panhandle of Florida:


Tonight: Clear, with a low around 21. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 51. Wind chill values between 15 and 25 early. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 18. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 48. Wind chill values between 10 and 20 early. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 7. Calm wind

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

[jinftl]

Add a '1' in front of the 7 deg forecast now....still plenty cold though

Today: Sunny, with a high near 53.
Tonight: Clear, with a low around 20.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

And Friday night it is forecast to be 7F around Baker (north of Crestview) in the panhandle of Florida:


Tonight: Clear, with a low around 21. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 51. Wind chill values between 15 and 25 early. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 18. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 48. Wind chill values between 10 and 20 early. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 7. Calm wind

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

[sunny]

I'll probably turn my heater on for the first time tonight, since tonight is supposed to be the coldest yet - I normally just use my little space heater and that works fine. We are expecting a light freeze tongiht

[jinftl]

With Lake Ponchartrain to the north, there is a definitely a moderation of airmasses that takes place for New Orleans and the surrounding communities (Metairie for sure)....if you look at average annual minimum temps for locations on the north shore of the lake and compare them to the south shore's lowest temps, they can run 5-10 deg colder some years. At its coldest, Lake O probably doesn't drop below the 50s.

I'll probably turn my heater on for the first time tonight, since tonight is supposed to be the coldest yet - I normally just use my little space heater and that works fine. We are expecting a light freeze tongiht

[MGC]

Imagine life in New Orleans during the freeze of 1899. Ice on the Mississippi River. It got down to 7 degrees.....MGC