Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Extremeweatherguy]

There were confirmed temperatures as cold as -32F in Illinois this morning. Even if the Rochelle readings were too low, this was still an impressive event. -32F is within 4 degrees of the all-time state low...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 4&source=0

[jasons2k]

Rememer that the hampton are a beach town....and are moderated by the ocean...avg high/low in easthampton is 39/27 for January. NYC averages 38/26.


Lowest temp ever recorded in East Hampton is -12 deg F in Feb 1934
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/vacationclimatology/monthly/USNY0418

Central Park, in the middle of NYC, would be quite a bit warmer than the suburbs. The urban heat island is a well known fact, and one of the possible contributors to perceived global warming, as airports located well away from city centers a few decades ago are now surrounded by the cities they serve.

Ed, I've seen the Urban Heat Island cause temps "quite a bit warmer", like 5-8 degrees, maybe even 10, but not 24 degrees warmer...especially when the "rural" location is on Long Island. Still sounds very fishy to me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Rememer that the hampton are a beach town....and are moderated by the ocean...avg high/low in easthampton is 39/27 for January. NYC averages 38/26.


Lowest temp ever recorded in East Hampton is -12 deg F in Feb 1934
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/vacationclimatology/monthly/USNY0418

Central Park, in the middle of NYC, would be quite a bit warmer than the suburbs. The urban heat island is a well known fact, and one of the possible contributors to perceived global warming, as airports located well away from city centers a few decades ago are now surrounded by the cities they serve.

Ed, I've seen the Urban Heat Island cause temps "quite a bit warmer", like 5-8 degrees, maybe even 10, but not 24 degrees warmer...especially when the "rural" location is on Long Island. Still sounds very fishy to me.

I was born in NYC, but lived my pre-teen years on Long Island. In Eastern Suffolk, there is an area known as the Pine Barrens, which are well known for getting much colder than surrounding areas.


Areas nearby on Long Island, like Shirley, did hit zero. -14ºF sounds odd, but not impossible.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi isn't always right, and this is very long range, and based on 1982 10 mb temperature anomaly analogs.


But, the last week if January, the East Coast is cold, the center is mild, the West kind of warm, and then a sudden flip as February begins, with deep purplish colored anomalies (not sure the scale, but they look scary) centered in Oklahoma, and the temperature anomalies clearly showing a mega-trough in the mid-section of the country, bringing cold air to the entire Plains, even Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
217 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD SFC HIGH CONT TO SHIFT EAST WITH S/SW WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO
WARM UP FROM VERY COLD START. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS... WHICH HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY MAY DISSIPATE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS
EVENING AND THEN REFORM/ADVECT BACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT AND
SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY.

MUCH WARMER TEMPS AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR EVEN WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND WILL UNDERGO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THIS TREND CONT OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND THEREFORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. ALSO WITH THIS N/NW FLOW OCCURRING AT BOTH
THE SFC AND IN THE MID LEVELS FORECAST REMAINS DRY. ALSO SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW... SO FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL REMAIN...
ESPECIALLY ON ANY DAY WHERE THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER. COULD
APPROACH RED FLAG BOTH SUN/MON ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/SOUTHWEST OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. HOWEVER VERY DRY VEGETATION AND SOIL CONDITIONS ARE MAKING
THINGS WORSE THAN THEY MAY OTHERWISE BE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AND EXPECT THINGS TO GET WORSE UNTIL SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CAN
OCCUR.

ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH NEXT ARCTIC FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLOWER GFS...
WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH ON FRI INSTEAD OF THU... WHEN THE
ECMWF DOES SO. WILL ALSO LEAVE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT... PLAYING
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 30 56 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 30 58 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 24 58 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 26 52 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 33 58 35 57 / 0 0 0 0

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just realized that a low temperature of -50F was reported in Big Black River, ME this morning. If this is correct, then it beats the old all-time state low for the state of Maine set way back in 1925 (which was -48F)!!!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/News_Items/ ... tem001.htm

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0113527.html

[jasons2k]

Crazy that this cold is breaking all kinds of records and Tampa will skate by without even a freeze threat

[vbhoutex]

Central Park, in the middle of NYC, would be quite a bit warmer than the suburbs. The urban heat island is a well known fact, and one of the possible contributors to perceived global warming, as airports located well away from city centers a few decades ago are now surrounded by the cities they serve.

That has definitely happened here in Houston. Intercontinental Airport in our Northern burbs opened in 1969 and our recorded lows started being a good deal lower than what they had been because they were taken at Hobby International Airport on the South side of the city. Now Intercontinental is surrounded by development and even though it regularly registers lower than Hobby, it is no longer the usual lowest temperature recorded in the metro area. Many times now the low at my home, which is well within the urban heat island area, but is 17 miles West of downtown Houston will register at or below the Intercontinental temperature. We were 3 degrees colder 2 days ago. In fact we have been colder for lows all this week. Intercontinental has at least 2x more in the amount of runways and buildings than it did in 1969 also which I'm sure has also had an effect.

[somethingfunny]

Central Park, in the middle of NYC, would be quite a bit warmer than the suburbs. The urban heat island is a well known fact, and one of the possible contributors to perceived global warming, as airports located well away from city centers a few decades ago are now surrounded by the cities they serve.

That has definitely happened here in Houston. Intercontinental Airport in our Northern burbs opened in 1969 and our recorded lows started being a good deal lower than what they had been because they were taken at Hobby International Airport on the South side of the city. Now Intercontinental is surrounded by development and even though it regularly registers lower than Hobby, it is no longer the usual lowest temperature recorded in the metro area. Many times now the low at my home, which is well within the urban heat island area, but is 17 miles West of downtown Houston will register at or below the Intercontinental temperature. We were 3 degrees colder 2 days ago. In fact we have been colder for lows all this week. Intercontinental has at least 2x more in the amount of runways and buildings than it did in 1969 also which I'm sure has also had an effect.

Usually the Metroplex has the same problem...I usually expect DFW Airport to be several degrees hotter than the rest of the Metroplex, and sometimes over 10 degrees warmer than my rural location 60 miles to the north. This doesn't seem to be happening today...... current temperatures are 40° at Dallas Love Field, 43° at Fort Worth Meacham, and 41° at DFW Airport. It's 36° here at the Grayson County Airport. These temperature differences are easily explained because it's Overcast here, Mostly Cloudy at Love, "A Few Clouds" at DFW, and Fair at Meacham.

I heard the weatherman on Fox4 saying the officials at DFW Airport were recalibrating their thermometer and it was in fact giving falsely high readings....I don't know how that came about or what's going to happen to the record books if that did happen.

[jinftl]

Especially when Tampa was forecast to have temps near freezing for the last 2 nights...

From earlier this week, NWS Tampa Bay forecast for Wednesday night (1/14)...
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE 30S SOUTHWARD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF INLAND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
ACTUAL LOW REPORTED AT TAMPA = 43

And then for last night, NWS Tampa Bay had forecasted (just 1 day before)...
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL ADVECTIVE FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST SOUTH INTO EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS CHARLOTTE AND EASTERN LEE COUNTIES.
ACTUAL LOW REPORTED AT TAMPA = 46

The forecast put out 48 hours ago for tonight...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
REVISED FORECAST LOW = 37

FORECAST LOW SATURDAY NIGHT = 43.

Crazy that this cold is breaking all kinds of records and Tampa will skate by without even a freeze threat

[mysterymachinebl]

Central Park, in the middle of NYC, would be quite a bit warmer than the suburbs. The urban heat island is a well known fact, and one of the possible contributors to perceived global warming, as airports located well away from city centers a few decades ago are now surrounded by the cities they serve.

That has definitely happened here in Houston. Intercontinental Airport in our Northern burbs opened in 1969 and our recorded lows started being a good deal lower than what they had been because they were taken at Hobby International Airport on the South side of the city. Now Intercontinental is surrounded by development and even though it regularly registers lower than Hobby, it is no longer the usual lowest temperature recorded in the metro area. Many times now the low at my home, which is well within the urban heat island area, but is 17 miles West of downtown Houston will register at or below the Intercontinental temperature. We were 3 degrees colder 2 days ago. In fact we have been colder for lows all this week. Intercontinental has at least 2x more in the amount of runways and buildings than it did in 1969 also which I'm sure has also had an effect.

Usually the Metroplex has the same problem...I usually expect DFW Airport to be several degrees hotter than the rest of the Metroplex, and sometimes over 10 degrees warmer than my rural location 60 miles to the north. This doesn't seem to be happening today...... current temperatures are 40° at Dallas Love Field, 43° at Fort Worth Meacham, and 41° at DFW Airport. It's 36° here at the Grayson County Airport. These temperature differences are easily explained because it's Overcast here, Mostly Cloudy at Love, "A Few Clouds" at DFW, and Fair at Meacham.

I heard the weatherman on Fox4 saying the officials at DFW Airport were recalibrating their thermometer and it was in fact giving falsely high readings....I don't know how that came about or what's going to happen to the record books if that did happen.

I have often wondered why DFW airport was always a few degrees warmer than anywhere else in the metro area, even warmer than Love Field which is in the middle of the city.

[MGC]

Temps in a metro area such as Dallas can also depend on topography of the area. When winds are light, cold air will pool in lower areas so it is not unusual to observe a spread of temps in a large metro area.

Winds have gone calm at my house, the cups on my anemometer are frozen (pardon the pun) and the temp now that the sun is going down has fallen to 39. Hopefully tonight will be the coldest of the season.....hurry up summer......MGC

[CrazyC83]

Temperatures (unofficial) on my thermometer this week:

Tuesday night: -37F

Wednesday night: -39F

Thursday night: -34F

[JonathanBelles]

Temps in a metro area such as Dallas can also depend on topography of the area. When winds are light, cold air will pool in lower areas so it is not unusual to observe a spread of temps in a large metro area.

Winds have gone calm at my house, the cups on my anemometer are frozen (pardon the pun) and the temp now that the sun is going down has fallen to 39. Hopefully tonight will be the coldest of the season.....hurry up summer......MGC

Tampa is also influenced by the water of the Bay, Gulf, and Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

Temperatures (unofficial) on my thermometer this week:

Tuesday night: -37F

Wednesday night: -39F

Thursday night: -34F

Just crazy, CrazyC83. I'm embrassed that I had 3 frosts this week.

[CajunMama]

Temperatures (unofficial) on my thermometer this week:

Tuesday night: -37F

Wednesday night: -39F

Thursday night: -34F

That's waaaaay to cold! Where do you live?

[CrazyC83]

Temperatures (unofficial) on my thermometer this week:

Tuesday night: -37F

Wednesday night: -39F

Thursday night: -34F

That's waaaaay to cold! Where do you live?

Up in northern Ontario, Canada - well north of Toronto. Supposed to be a bit better tonight, around -15F.

[Ed Mahmoud]

-37ºF last night broke the January record for Caribou, ME.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES NEAR KLAW/KSPS. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
AND EAST OF KSPS SO LEFT OUT OF NEW TAF...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 14Z AND 21Z TODAY. SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED AFTER FROPA WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS
EXPECTED TOWARD AND AFTER 18/0000Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS.

SEVERAL CHANGES IN AIRMASS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MAIN CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. BOTH
NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE INTRUSION OF CANADIAN/NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERATED COLD AIR AS FAST MOVING S/WV ROTATES AROUND GREAT LAKES
VORTEX. THIS CREATES A 10 TO 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY. WE ARE SIDING CLOSE TO COLDER GUIDANCE
OF NAM.

QUICK WARM UP SHOULD COMMENCE TUESDAY BEFORE MORE ARCTIC ORIGIN
AIR MAKES A RUN FOR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLDER AIR
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF AND SPILL INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH ITS
HANDLING OF WESTERN U.S. STORM SYSTEM AND TIMING OF COLDER AIR
INTRUSION. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT PRECIP COULD
OCCUR...IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES WOULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WOULD MAINLY BE OVER RED RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 32 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 32 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 32 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 61 27 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 54 29 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 37 59 33 / 0 0 0 0

[Extremeweatherguy]

New York City (Central Park) fell to 6F this morning, with Westhampton Beach once again falling well below zero (-15F)!!!

Here is a statement from the NWS...

ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
MOST PLACES AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN THE LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS. WESTHAMPTON BEACH /FOK/...AFTER PLUMMETING TO
-14 LAST NIGHT...REACHED -15 JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND ISLIP SET A
RECORD LOW OF 2 THIS MORNING AS WELL. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.