SPAC: Tropical disturbance TD(94P)

[Crostorm]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 16/2245 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1007HPA] NEAR 12S 164E AT 1800UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON VIS/IR WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST QUIKSCAT. SST AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREE
CELCIUS.

THE SYSTEM LIES ALONG A TROUGH UNDER A 250 HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. POOR CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM
IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AND ORGANISATION REMAINS DISORGANISED. A SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH DIRECTS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE TD.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS [EC/US/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM BUT NOT
DEEPENING OR DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER.

POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Chacor]

Another monsoon trough low?

[Crostorm]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 17/0913 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1007HPA] NEAR 14S 162E AT 170600UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST QUIKSCAT. SST AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREE CELCIUS.

THE SYSTEM LIES ALONG A TROUGH UNDER A 250 HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. POOR CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM
IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AND ORGANISATION REMAINS DISORGANISED. A SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH DIRECTS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE TD.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS [EC/US/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM BUT NOT
DEEPENING OR DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER.

POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.