2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[southerngale]

Drought? We're certainly not saturated or anything over here, but no drought conditions at all, either. Seems to be just perfect for outdoor activities.

This is what Portastorm is referring to:

*image removed*


http://www.txwin.net/Monitoring/Meteoro ... t/pdsi.htm

It was srainhoutx who said that, not Portastorm. According to that map, srainhoutx isn't in a drought. He didn't say either way, but maybe he was referring to Portastorm's neck of the woods. That would make sense. My bad.

[vbhoutex]

We managed 29.3ºf at the house here in Spring Branch this morning. Cold by my standards but nothing out of the ordinary for a winter in Houston. Now the 12ºf they are forecasting at my Mom's location in NW FL is cold by anyones standards!!!

Hey vbhoutex check this out in the Florida panhandle in Laurell Hill the low is supposed to be 9 deg.Here in S FL the low will be 50 deg.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

Ouch!!! Tha is about 35 miles due North of where Mom lives in Niceville. Niceville is next to Choctawhattche Bay so they are "only" expecting a low of 15ºf vs the 7ºf now being shown for Laurel Hill.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Anyone see any wintery precip for the DFW area in the next 2 weeks?

[srainhoutx]

00Z ECMWF again has suggested that more cold air will move into TX with a much stronger Ridge in AK forcing a Cross Polar Flow. While this is in the 7-10 range (La La Land), it has been consistent for several runs and the GFS "hints" this as well. Remember that February is the best month for "wintry weather" climo wise for TX. We shall see what this weak La Nina Pattern holds ahead for us.

[Portastorm]

00Z ECMWF again has suggested that more cold air will move into TX with a much stronger Ridge in AK forcing a Cross Polar Flow. While this is in the 7-10 range (La La Land), it has been consistent for several runs and the GFS "hints" this as well. Remember that February is the best month for "wintry weather" climo wise for TX. We shall see what this weak La Nina Pattern holds ahead for us.

Yeah srainhoutx, I saw that this morning. The GFS ensembles this morning though don't show the trough developing over the nation's midsection until around Jan. 26th., about 10 days from now. The 0z GFS operational run does show a cold airmass coming down the Rockies and Plains next weekend.

As others have posted though we have seen this before. Watch and wait. Watch and wait.

[mysterymachinebl]

00Z ECMWF again has suggested that more cold air will move into TX with a much stronger Ridge in AK forcing a Cross Polar Flow. While this is in the 7-10 range (La La Land), it has been consistent for several runs and the GFS "hints" this as well. Remember that February is the best month for "wintry weather" climo wise for TX. We shall see what this weak La Nina Pattern holds ahead for us.

that is true. it seems to snow more in february or march up here than in january.

[Portastorm]

I hate doing this ... but it's the right thing to do ... OK Ed, you were right.

This "front" is nothing much at all. Maybe a day or two of 10 degrees below normal maxes. Your "a tad bit below normal" looks to be dead on.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It was cool driving to work just before Dawn. Frost on my car and the rooftops, and a three foot thick blanket of fog over all the fields.

[Texas Snowman]

Bear Forecast alert.

As in "Bears watching". From the FW NWS snippet from this morning:

REGARDING THE LATE WEEK FORECAST...HAVE PRETTY MUCH IGNORED THE
GFS AND SIDED WITH THE SEEMINGLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WHERE RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS TIME
OF YEAR IS ONE TO BE ALERT FOR FREEZING RAIN HERE. ARCTIC AIRMASS
IS OFTEN FORCED SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS BY THE POLAR BRANCH OF THE
JET WHERE IT KEEPS HEADING SOUTH INTO TEXAS DUE TO ITS DENSITY.
MEANWHILE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH PROVIDES THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR
OVERRUNNING PRECIP. ECMWF PERFECT PROG ADVERTISES THIS SCENARIO
AND EVEN SHOWS FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NW COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE IN ANY WINTER PRECIP
SCENARIO IS LOW 7 DAYS OUT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS THAN FORECAST BY
THE GFS. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS. TR.92

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Bring on the winter weather!!

[Portastorm]

The 0z European this morning does suggest (for the second day in a row) a strong plunge of cold air coming down into Texas.

Eh, it'll probably go east like the last one grumbles Portastorm

[jasons2k]

Well, the High placement is certainly in the right spot for a Texas dump of cold air. We'll see....

[southerngale]

[srainhoutx]

The 0z European this morning does suggest (for the second day in a row) a strong plunge of cold air coming down into Texas.

Eh, it'll probably go east like the last one grumbles Portastorm

You saw that too, Portastorm. The "interesting" issue will be the role of the Southern Jet should this varify. Like Jasons, I do gree that the position of the High Pressure is much better suited for a dive through the S Plains. And also like southergale, I'll look at this for a few more days before "buying into it".

[somethingfunny]

[Portastorm]

Not yet, somethingfunny, not yet.

That image only works when I spend a week telling everyone here that we're gonna have a major cold front or wintry weather event ... or if it sleet and/or snows in portions of Texas and not in Austin. Of course, all of these things have happened in some form or fashion over the years.

Right now, I am only midly interested in this alleged cold front for next weekend. Not "on board" at all yet. But keep that image handy!!

[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm,

Get your kicking shoes ready.

OKC NWS office is also advertising potential arctic front and precip next weekend - with the caveat that it looks to be more of a Texas event than an Oklahoma event.

QUICK WARM UP SHOULD COMMENCE TUESDAY BEFORE MORE ARCTIC ORIGIN
AIR MAKES A RUN FOR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLDER AIR
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF AND SPILL INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH ITS
HANDLING OF WESTERN U.S. STORM SYSTEM AND TIMING OF COLDER AIR
INTRUSION. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT PRECIP COULD
OCCUR...IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES WOULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE AND WOULD MAINLY BE OVER RED RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHERN TEXAS.

[gboudx]

Cool. Sleet and snow next weekend. Lace em up.

[srainhoutx]

12Z ECMWF continues with an "interesting" output concerning next weekend in TX. A split flow develops ala the Southern Jet and colder High Pressure looks to slide down. While this is still in La La Land, the trend has continued for 3 runs. We shall see.

Afternoon AFD Updates from San Angelo and Dallas/Ft Worth

SJT...snipet...

AFTER THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE INTERESTING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME FORM OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THAT IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. THE NEW
12Z ECMWF NOW HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH AS A
PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THE ECMWF ALSO PRODUCES QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP ON
FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...AND WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...CAUSING THEM TO BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. AM NOT INCLINED TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH THIS BEING 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. WILL
RAISE POPS SOME...BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...AND KEEP THE COOLING TREND FROM THURSDAY GOING...BUT
WILL NOT DROP THE BOTTOM OUT ON THE TEMPS RIGHT NOW.

FWD...snipet...

THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FLOW A BIT
MORE CONSOLIDATED. THEREFORE...THE GFS SOLUTION IS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND DRY WHILE THE ECM SOLUTIONS IS MUCH WETTER AND
COLDER. WE ARE MORE INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE ECMFW BASED ON
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND PAST PERFORMANCE. HOWEVER...WILL
KEEP POPS VERY LOW FOR NOW. IF THE ECMFW SOLUTION PANS OUT...SOME
MUCH NEEDED PRECIP COULD RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS WITH EVEN A LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP.

[Shoshana]

They can keep the arctic weather up north where it belongs....

I just want some rain!!!!!