Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

I took a drive along the coast of Boca Raton and Pompano Beach. Winds are blowing from the NE to NNE at about 10-20mph with a comfortable air temperature. Skies look summer-like actually with a line of deepening cumulus between the onshore breeze and a NW wind component farther inland. There were a few sprinkles actually.

I'm awaiting the arctic air but think its looking more and more doubtful its not making it this far south. If winds manage to stay NNE or NE, lows will stay above 60F along the coast over the weekend. However, at some point I think the cold air will finally break the SE Florida heat blanket (winds must become NW or light and variable for that to happen though and skies must clear out). It looks like its going to take about 3 or 4 fronts to finally break it though.

[gatorcane]

I went into the archive of NWS Miami discussions I have to admit, I'm not so sure they really botched the forecast. Every extended outlook for the past several days discussed the possibility of a high cirrus canopy keeping temperatures higher than expected. NWS Miami predicted upper 40s inland to lower 50s SE Coast for several forecasts. Looks like we'll see lower 50s for the coldest lows.

I think its more of the media and news outlets across South Florida making it seem like an arctic blast was on the way and it was going to be "very cold." In fact looks like that was all media hype.

[jinftl]

Current image from Fort Lauderdale Beach....no icicles from what i can tell (then again, temp in low 70s)

[jinftl]

i think you are 100% right...recall how there was such a disconnect from NWS Miami's forecast lows for this period even early in the week compared to other NWS offices from Florida....if anything, locations to the north, along with media hype for 'extreme events' made this into more than it was ever going to be. Never quite understood how it could be as cold as was being forecast even in orlando and tampa, and miami would struggle to fall below 50. We saw how that has turned out so far in orlando and tampa.

I still believe that Miami will fall below 50 deg this winter.....although i can't say for sure if it will happen in the next week. But time is a-ticking for that even too.

I went into the archive of NWS Miami discussions I have to admit, I'm not so sure they really botched the forecast. Every extended outlook for the past several days discussed the possibility of a high cirrus canopy keeping temperatures higher than expected. NWS Miami predicted upper 40s inland to lower 50s SE Coast for several forecasts. Looks like we'll see lower 50s for the coldest lows.

I think its more of the media and news outlets across South Florida making it seem like an arctic blast was on the way and it was going to be "very cold." In fact looks like that was all media hype.

[jdray]

Currently 44F in JAX.

The Naked Cowboy makes a visit. Of course he is the only one not wearing anything. Everyone else has jackets and sweaters on.

[Sanibel]

58* - 52* yesterday and last night. The GOM kept our low temperature warmer. That's about as low a daytime temperature as you get down here.

Up in the 60's today and sunny.

[jdray]

Currently 28F @ 11PM. Only forecast to 27F here, I think this cold air finally made it here and will definitely be colder than 27F.

[frankthetank]

53F currently at the airport in Miami... 51F @ KFLL...

[dizzyfish]

29* here this morning. Up to 30.7 now.

[HURAKAN]

[jdray]

It made it to 23F at Cecil Field (closest to my house).

Was 14 hours below freezing. Glad I covered the plants.

[JonathanBelles]

It went down to 38 here, which shows even near the beaches, there are the pockets that do get cool.

[HURAKAN]

It went down to 51.9ºF this morning.

[jinftl]

NWS Tallahassee update on where temps bottomed out with the arctic airmass...some areas 10-15 deg warmer tonight.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH THE TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED
ALMOST 8 HOURS OF HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS (T <26 DEGREES F) LAST
NIGHT...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES OUT OF
THE TEENS. TALLAHASSEE WAS ONE OF THE COLD SPOTS...BOTTOMING OUT AT
20 DEGREES. THIS MISSED THE RECORD LOW OF 17 SET IN 1977 BY 3 DEGREES.
BELOW ARE LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING AT SELECTED ASOS SITES ACROSS THE
CWA.

TALLAHASSEE FL (TLH): 20 (forecast low for saturday night = 32)
PANAMA CITY FL (PFN): 28 (fcst low for saturday night = 42)
PERRY FL (40J) : 25
CROSS CITY FL (CTY) : 24
DOTHAN AL (DHN) : 26 (fcst low for saturday night = 37)
ALBANY GA (ABY) : 22 (fcst low for saturday night = 35)
VALDOSTA GA (VLD) : 23

THE COLDEST REPORT IN THE CWA THUS FAR (SOME COOP SITES MAY NOT
REPORT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING) WAS GENEVA ALABAMA WITH A LOW OF 19.

[jinftl]

Yep, official low last night at Miami Int'l Airport and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood Int'l Airport was 53 in both locations. (KFLL is Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport...but the FtLHwd Airport reporting station is the primary source of "Fort Lauderdale" weather stats that are reported to the public locally and nationally.

Forecast lows for tonight are 57 in Fort Lauderdale and 58 in Miami....1-2 deg below normal.

Per NWS Miami,
SOME MODIFICATION TO THIS AIRMASS WILL BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINING ONE OR TWO DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS,

Both airports warmed up to 74 gorgeous degrees this pm....a few higher than originally forecast. May add a deg or 2 even to that for tomorrow's highs and again on Monday as next front is still to the north.

53F currently at the airport in Miami... 51F @ KFLL...

[Sanibel]

Last night 45* and chilly. Today sunny and 66*. Warm in tropical sun.

[TampaFl]

Snow flurries possible mid week for the Tampa Bay area ????

-----------------------------------------------

000
FXUS62 KTBW 180746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

...ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR COMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEFINED
BY THE MASSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER US ATTM WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SE TODAY AS
THE NEXT POTENT SHORT WAVE IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MAKE IT TO THE FL PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. FOR
OUR AREA TODAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE PENINSULA NOW WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY FROM THE NW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD START (WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF NEAR-FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS OUR COLDER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS)...TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABOUT 5 DEG WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 60S NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY TO UPPER 60S-LOW 70S TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO FMY.

THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS W CNTRL FL TONIGHT...
MAKING IT JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY SUNRISE MONDAY. MOS GUID PRETTY
HIGH WITH POPS...BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER US NOW...PREFER
TO GO JUST BELOW MOS...WITH HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT AROUND 50 PRCNT
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH TO LEVY CO...THEN LESSENING FARTHER SOUTH TO 20
PRCNT NEAR FMY. FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT OUR CWA BY NOON MON...SO
WILL CARRY A 20 POPS FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MID DAY MON.

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE (CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND
DIVING SOUTHWARD AS WELL) WILL FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE...AND WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS THIS SECOND FRONT THAT WILL
BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...ONE OF THE
COLDEST AIRMASSES OF THE SEASON. GFS/MAV IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN NAM/MET WITH RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SECOND FRONT.
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST SHORT
WAVE...AND WITH W TO WNW MID-UPR FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO SHORT
WAVES...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR THE SECOND FRONT. SO FOR NOW
WILL STAY BELOW MAV AND HOLD POPS TO 20 PRCNT FOR TUE. TURNING
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH SIGNIF
CAA COMMENCING RIGHT AFTER FROPA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE LOW 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND UPR 50S CENTRAL
ZONES. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE TRENDED COLDER FOR THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF AS WELL. VERY COLD AIR WILL AGAIN SPILL DOWN THE PENINSULA ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT -7C
OVER LEVY COUNTY TO -4C NEAR TAMPA. AT THAT SAME TIME...COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A RAW EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT COLD RAIN OR SPRINKLES INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CURRENT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW
FLURRIES...BUT IF WE TREND A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER IT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TO SEE A FLURRY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. AGAIN...WE
ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY OF THE WHITE STUFF...BUT THIS PATTERN HAS
YIELDED A FEW FLAKES IN THE PAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IT WON`T BE GETTING
VERY WARM. HIGHS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH...WITH UPPER 50S COMMON AROUND THE BAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE QUITE COLD WITH NO CLOUDS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE BULK OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL HAVE MOVED ON
BY...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF
QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. I HAVE STAYED ABOVE 00Z GUIDANCE...CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS 12Z GUIDANCE SINCE PRIOR TO YESTERDAY THIS AIRMASS WAS
NOT SUPPOSED TO BE SO COLD. STILL...I BROUGHT NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE INTERIOR OF HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY WITH SOME MID
20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE NATURE COAST.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE OUR LAST COOL DAY OF THIS LONG LIVED COLD SNAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S AWAY FROM THE
COAST AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WE WILL SEE A 30+ DEGREE REBOUND IN
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND
INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MID WEST
LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BUILD A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM EVEN MORE. THE END RESULT LEAVES US WITH
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING THE COLD AIR LOCKED TO OUR NORTH WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LOSING IDENTITY BEFORE REACHING OUR REGION. LOOK
FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
NORTH AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

[jdray]

Another 12+ hours of below freezing weather.

Hit 32F @ 8PM, still @ 27F as of 8AM this morning.


NWS JAX has noted to potential for a few flurries as well like NWS TAMPA.

000
FXUS62 KJAX 180838
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ERN CONUS TROUGH DEEPENING
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE NRN ZONES AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING AN OVERCAST OF
MOSTLY MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SRN AL AND SRN
GA. COLD FRONT NOTED FROM KY TO ERN TX. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAS PUSHED SEWD NOW NEAR W CENTRAL FL. TEMPS HAVE STOPPED THEIR
FALL DUE TO INCREASING SWLY WINDS AND CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO OUR
NRN ZONES. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE. FREEZE
WARNING LOOKS OK WITH A FEW TEMP READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S ATTM IN THE WARNING AREA.

.SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH TEMPS APPROACHING THE 70 DEG MARK OVER SRN ZONES
BUT REMAINING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN SE GA. OCNL BREEZY CONDS
AS FRONT APPROACHES. MODIFIED POPS TODAY TO GO HIGHER IN SE GA AS
STRONG LIFT AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE MOVES IN. HAVE GONE WITH 70%
OVER INLAND SE GA AND TAPERED TO 20% FROM ST JOHNS COUNTY TO NRN
MARION. NO THUNDER ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT
GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE DUE TO LLVL JET OF 40-50 KT AT 850
MB. FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SE GA BY 00Z MON. TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 50% ALONG THE FRONT FOR NOW WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING
QUICKLY WITH POPS ENDING ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT 09Z. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE MODERATED BY LIGHT WLY WINDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES OR A
SHOWER OVER SRN GA. BRISK WITH WLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH GUSTING TO
NEAR 25-30 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH RE-ENFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR
OVER CWA BY TUE. THIS SHOULD INDUCE LIFT AND PROMOTE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SERN ZONES BUT SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY SO WILL GO
UNDER GFS POPS ATTM. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE TIMING OF VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT AND ARRIVING OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
REGION WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING WELL E OF THE SE ATLC
SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AND NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 10 DEG COLDER. NOTED 850 MB
TEMPS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE WELL BELOW 0C BY TUE AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. TUE NIGHT...AS SFC LOW OFF THE E COAST LIFTS OUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A FREEZE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE INLAND ZONES.

.LONG TERM...WED-SAT. DRY AND COLD CONDS WILL CONTINUE WED AND
THU WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT. FREEZE WARNINGS LOOK HIGHLY LIKELY WITH HARD FREEZES
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WED AND THU MORNINGS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
INFO IN THE HWO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
ON THU WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. PER GFS AND ECMWF FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI.
ECMWF DIFFERS FROM GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING IN
GA WITH WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. FOR
NOW WON`T MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES THIS FAR OUT. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND
BY FRI AND SAT CLOSER TO NORMS.

[JonathanBelles]

Interesting forecast changes this morning. Now they have two days of warmer weather in the five-day. Chance of rain was popped up to 50% for tonight, and Tuesday's low has been dropped. Amazing that the NWS is talking about SNOW! BUT IF WE TREND A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER IT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE TO SEE A FLURRY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. AGAIN...WE
ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY OF THE WHITE STUFF...BUT THIS PATTERN HAS
YIELDED A FEW FLAKES IN THE PAST.


WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[frankthetank]

In Hollywood Beach area right now guys! GORGEOUS today. Plan on spending the day at the beach and then taking a nice long walk. 50's last night weren't bad. 70's today are great. Cold air later this week. No sandals As long as there is full shunshine i don't care.