Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Cool Animation showing Lake Michigan icing over...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 2&source=0

[jasons2k]

Well, if the local NWS Office is saying those numbers are valid readings, then I can't argue with them. It's truly amazing, no doubt about that.

[Stephanie]

This morning at around 7:30, my thermometer said 0 degrees!

The ONLY thing that I can say is thank goodness the wind hasn't been blowing. It does make it a little more bearable. Anyway, we should be making our way back to more normal temperatures after today.

[Stephanie]

Maybe a little bit of snow on the way for me:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1009 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>027-PAZ067>071-181515-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
1009 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND IF IT
DOES, THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. IF THE SNOW DEVELOPS, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THAT COULD
CAUSE MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO GIVE HEAVY
SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z ECMWF is showing an interesting storm system impacting the Southern Plains in 144-168 hours...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

Hopefully it will deliver some much needed wintry precipitation to OKC!

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
258 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA BEGINNING TO BE MET ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTH
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. RELATIVELY MILD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AIRMASS... AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AS IT MOVES DOWNSLOPE INTO
THE AREA... HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT... WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THEY DECOUPLE... THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE COULD AGAIN SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY BEING
REACHED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WHILE COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW CRITERIA. WITH THE CURED VEGETATION AND SOIL
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DROP IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
RECENT RAINFALL... WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE WEST
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE... MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN
U.S. SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
COOLER AIR BACKDOORING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

DIFFERENCES BY MID TO LATE WEEK OCCUR IN THE MODELS AS THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS INDICATES A MODERATELY STRONG WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LITTLE
INDICATION OF THIS FEATURE... ALTHOUGH BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA AROUND THIS TIME WITH CANADIAN AIR EVENTUALLY
SPREADING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR
FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BACK OUT OF THE AREA FASTER OVER THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION.

BOTH MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION FIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY... RESULTING IN LIGHT QPF. WITH
THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS COLDER... THE POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR A WINTRY MIX IN SOME AREAS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 59 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 31 62 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 33 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 63 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 25 51 26 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 36 60 35 50 / 0 0 0 0

[xironman]

record event report
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1147 am akst Sat Jan 17 2009

... Record warmth across interior Alaska...

For the second day in a row records were set across interior
Alaska.

Monthly records

Location new record previous record monthly record
Fort Yukon... ... ... ... .45 not available 40 set in 1927
Tanana... ... ... ... ... ..41 35 set in 1957 41 set in 1961
College observatory... .52 40 set in 1981 47 set in 1947
eielson... ... ... ... ... .52 40 set in 1940 50 set in 1980
Fairbanks Airport... ... 52 42 set in 1981 50 set in 1981

Daily records

Location new record old record
Eagle... ... ... ... ... ... 46 31 set in 1981
Denali park... ... ... ... 47 44 set in 1945
Northway... ... ... ... ... 30 27 set in 1963
Tok... ... ... ... ... ... ..31 27 set in 1963
Bettles... ... ... ... ... .41 30 set in 1957

So far today Fairbanks International Airport has hit a high
temperature of 48 degrees breaking the previous record of 43
set in 1981.

52 in Fairbanks, that's wild.

[Jagno]

I really feel badly for you guys in those freezing temps. Today we were around the mid 60's and of course there was grass to mow, garden to be tilled again, repainting the house, beds to be weeded and endless chores that will totally consume our holiday weekend. I guess there are advantages to being snowed in after all.

P.S. - I even got sunburned terribly on my face and neck. I forgot the sunscreen since it wasn't "hot".

[Extremeweatherguy]

Things may be getting interesting across the Southern Plains in 6-8 days if tonight's 00z GFS run verifies...

156 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

168 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

180 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

192 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

204 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

[somethingfunny]

That's strange, because DFW NWS has completely backed off on the frozen precip.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That's strange, because DFW NWS has completely backed off on the frozen precip.

That's probably because the best chance for frozen/freezing precipitation appears to be toward the end of the forecast period or just beyond it for North Texas. If the models continue to show this scenario in future runs though, then I would expect the DFW NWS to mention it in one of their updates later on.

[josephtwyman]

the models 3rd time in a row shows a major snow and ice event monday through thursday for this event!

[Texas Snowman]

No one wants it to snow in N. Texas more than me - hence the moniker!

But given the models track record from several days out this winter, I'll have to see it to believe it!

Tx Snowman

[josephtwyman]

they are putting the freezing rain and snow in the nws now!

[josephtwyman]

so dallas! watch out ! monday - wednesday maybe thursday

[Ed Mahmoud]

they are putting the freezing rain and snow in the nws now!

Links or quotes would be wonderful...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian forecasting winter love Tuesday Oklahoma and then into the South, like Arkansas, Northern Mississippi and Alabama, but not showing much for North Texas.


Maybe some happiness in North Texas then, maybe not.

[boca]

Here's a snippet out of Dallas/FTWorth NWS. They do mention freezing rain, but not snow, at least so far.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT THE
ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FAVORED. THEY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN FEATURING ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS...BUT ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE POOLING BENEATH BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. GFS HAS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING A MUCH BIGGER PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR AND
SNOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. SINCE ITS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
THIS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LOOK LIKE SPAGHETTI...WILL FILE THIS
RUN INTO THE NOT BUYING IT FOLDER. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/ENSEMBLE
FORECAST PATTERN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SHALLOW LAYER OF ARCTIC
AIR TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY...WHICH IS A LITTLE
MORE PLAUSIBLE AND IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING DAYS.
FOR NOW...OUR FORECAST STAYS CONSERVATIVE WITH A COOL DOWN TO
NEAR/BELOW NORMAL AND LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

[jasons2k]

they are putting the freezing rain and snow in the nws now!

so dallas! watch out ! monday - wednesday maybe thursday

If you mean for the DFW area, no they are not, at least not in the forecast. Please post a link to support such a claim and/or be more specific about what you are referring to.

Secondly, the official NWS forecast only goes-out to 7 days.

[vbhoutex]

the models 3rd time in a row shows a major snow and ice event monday through thursday for this event!

Which models? For what area? Post links!!!