Florida Weather

[boca]

We might have freezing temps here in S FL Tues/Wed time frame.This is a snippet out of Miami NWS.

THEN IT IS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THAT CARVES OUT A MASSIVE AND IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO S FLA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE IS INDICATED ALSO WITH THIS
FRONT BUT WITH MOST OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, AGAIN IT SEEMS THE MET NUMBERS ARE TOO
HIGH AND WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE MAV NUMBERS. WHAT IS IMPRESSIVE
ABOUT THIS SECOND FRONT IS THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT DRAMATICALLY LOWERING THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN FACT, THESE VALUES MATCH SOME OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE EVENTS ACROSS INTERIOR S FLA OVER THE PAST 40
TO 50 YEARS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL RUNS, HAVE OPTED
TO ISSUE A FREEZE OUTLOOK WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR S FLA EXCLUDING MIAMI-DADE
AND THE COASTAL REGIONS AND WILL HAVE THIS OUT BY MID AFTERNOON. THE
SFC RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE
NORTHERN GOFMEX WHICH IS ALSO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR COLD EVENTS
WITH THE HIGH THEN MOVING TO CENT FLA BY EARLY THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION, WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH GULF WEDNESDAY
MORNING, A NORTH WIND IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 10 MPH COULD CAUSE WIND
CHILL CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEN WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO CENT FLA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THIS WILL LEAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND POSSIBLY SEE ANOTHER FREEZE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD EVENT, BUT ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

[psyclone]

I must admit i'm getting increasingly concerned about the freeze potential later this week. This might be the real deal. plus, the water temps in my region have plummeted after this latest cold snap, reducing their arctic airmass modification ability. My coldest low during this latest episode was 39 yesterday morning and we might need some luck for a repeat.

[JonathanBelles]

The water temp at CLR has dropped to 60, but may regain a few degrees today and tomorrow.

[boca]

If where going to have lows in the 30's. You guys over in Tampa will probably see 20's especially inland from the Bay area.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WHOOOAAA Gonna be cold!!!! Tampa forecasted to 34*F by midweek!

[jinftl]

In my neck of the woods! And yes it has been a really nice weekend....very hard to relate to what parts of the nation have been dealing with in terms of cold when it is such a 'gentle, open the windows for the fresh air' weekend. Staying in the low 60's tonight.

Temps rebound pretty quickly by the end of the week...looks more like a quick hitting cold shot (36-48 hour event...tuesday night through thursday) that is colder than we have seen so far this season....as compared to the slow and enduring cold snap we were supposed to have and only 'kind of' had...i say kind of because Miami at its coldest during the past week had a day 4 deg below normal (avg high + avg low).

NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 4:52 pm EST Jan 18, 2009

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Southwest wind between 9 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
M.L.King Day: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75.
Monday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 61.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 75.

In Hollywood Beach area right now guys! GORGEOUS today. Plan on spending the day at the beach and then taking a nice long walk. 50's last night weren't bad. 70's today are great. Cold air later this week. No sandals As long as there is full shunshine i don't care.

[jinftl]

And this week i think it will actually happen...the cold snap forecast has the earmarks of a typical florida coldsnap....about 48 hours of temps well below normal (coldest night for Tampa is forecast to be Tuesday night at 34 and Wednesday the coldest day at 56) and then a rebound to normal by Friday (forecast high for Tampa on Friday is 71 deg with a low Friday nght of 52....normals for Tampa are 70/52).

For comparison, record low in Tampa for 1/21 is 21 deg and 1/22 is 26 deg.

WHOOOAAA Gonna be cold!!!! Tampa forecasted to 34*F by midweek!

[frankthetank]

I'll be down in the keys for both those cold days. I might make the Key West run on WEDS... That high temp in Miami is a little scary!!!!

Nice area down here. Very clean and not ghetto at all. Took a drive to the SuperTarget off of 848?? I think thats right. Plan on seeing a lot more the next few days. Tomorrow will be nice again so i'll go for a swim in the ocean, just to say i did. So nice to see GREEN and CLEAN CARS. You can't imagine how dirty your car gets in Wisconsin in the winter. Its just disgusting. That is one reason i hate snow.

[jinftl]

Wow! Mark this day down....it is not very often that florida..for right or for wrong...gets anything that could be considered complimentary. Pretty cool that someone visiting the area...who is still in the area....can say that.

The reality is that just like anywhere in the U.S., there are great areas and not so great areas in Florida. Alot has been done to make the experience for both tourists and locals alike enjoyable, safe, and pleasant. Add in the work Mother Nature does by providing weekend weather like we had....perpetual spring...and it isn't too tough to be here in mid-January...even a cold day here is still warmer that most of the u.s....gives us a chance to finally wear our leather jackets for 2 mornings.

Key West should bottom out with lows in the low to mid 50's tuesday night and wednesday out with highs in the 60s. Back to 70s during the day and 60s at night by friday.

I'll be down in the keys for both those cold days. I might make the Key West run on WEDS... That high temp in Miami is a little scary!!!!

Nice area down here. Very clean and not ghetto at all. Took a drive to the SuperTarget off of 848?? I think thats right. Plan on seeing a lot more the next few days. Tomorrow will be nice again so i'll go for a swim in the ocean, just to say i did. So nice to see GREEN and CLEAN CARS. You can't imagine how dirty your car gets in Wisconsin in the winter. Its just disgusting. That is one reason i hate snow.

[Scorpion]

Orlando might get into the 20's...wow this is crazy

[boca]

I'm looking for info on the Jan 2003 cold event for S FL. How cold did it get at the 3 airport locations during the cold snap?

[HURAKAN]

We may get to the very low 40s. That's impressive. A once a year event.

[HURAKAN]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
910 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-191200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
910 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

...COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER SEASON EXPECTED WED/THU...
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE WED/THU MORNING PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH FL...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY
WITH A SECOND STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S INTERIOR AND THE 40S
AT THE COASTS. A FREEZE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. WIND CHILLS COULD
FALL INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW COLD IT WILL GET ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...SO ALL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA

[gatorcane]

I must admit i'm getting increasingly concerned about the freeze potential later this week. This might be the real deal. plus, the water temps in my region have plummeted after this latest cold snap, reducing their arctic airmass modification ability. My coldest low during this latest episode was 39 yesterday morning and we might need some luck for a repeat.

The weather channel 10 day forecasts are keeping Tampa above freezing with a low of 34. They are thinking a no-go on a freeze for the Tampa area it looks like. I need to take a look at the synoptics for this potential freeze event to get a good idea of whether I think it will happen for Central or Southern Florida.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/a ... _topnav_aq

[jinftl]

NWS forecast for Tampa shows temps around 30 on Tuesday night and just above freezing on Wed morning. Inland areas will be colder. Very low chance of record lows this go around...record on 1/21 is 21 deg and 1/22 is 26 deg.

Cold snap will be quick hitting...intense but fairly short-lived....check out the rebound that starts the end of the week....florida's version of a january thaw as temps even a bit above normal by the weekend.


NWS Forecast for: Tampa
Issued by: National Weather Service Tampa Bay
Last Update: 6:38 am EST Jan 19, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Tuesday: Isolated sprinkles after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.
Tuesday Night: Isolated sprinkles before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 54.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 33.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 63.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

I must admit i'm getting increasingly concerned about the freeze potential later this week. This might be the real deal. plus, the water temps in my region have plummeted after this latest cold snap, reducing their arctic airmass modification ability. My coldest low during this latest episode was 39 yesterday morning and we might need some luck for a repeat.

The weather channel 10 day forecasts are keeping Tampa above freezing with a low of 34. They are thinking a no-go on a freeze for the Tampa area it looks like. I need to take a look at the synoptics for this potential freeze event to get a good idea of whether I think it will happen for Central or Southern Florida.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/a ... _topnav_aq

[gatorcane]

Looking at NWS forecasts for Florida, I'm seeing warmer overnight lows projected for the Tampa area than the West Palm Beach-Ft. Laud area -- why is that? Is NWS Miami seeing a more severe cold event than NWS Tampa?

For example:

Palm Harbor, FL (suburb near coast WNW of Tampa)
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2.7632&e=0

West Palm Beach, FL
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 0.1262&e=1

[jinftl]

NWS Miami has bumped up temps in latest forecast a few degrees for Miami & Fort Lauderdale. Now expecting a low of 43 deg on both Tuesday and Wednesday nights in Fort Lauderdale (before forecast was for 39 deg) and a low of 45 in Miami on Tuesday night and 42 on Wednesday night.

If these temps verified, this would be a warmer arctic outbreak than the 1/3/08 airmass when Miami & Fort Lauderdale both fell to 39 deg (airports). it would also be warmer than the 2003 cold snap, where Fort Lauderdale hit 35 deg and Miami fell to 36 deg (airports).

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=26.1468089733079&lon=-80.1287841796875&site=mfl&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en&TextType=1

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=25.765266904920967&lon=-80.21804809570312&site=mfl&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en&TextType=1

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
516 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING
IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON. ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID
40S AT THE COASTS. TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN APPROACH FREEZING OVER
NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME CALM WHILE A HIGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN RIDGES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 30S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER
40S SOUTHEAST COAST.

Also interesting details in the latest Discussion...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD...WITH THIS EVENT APPEARING TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE COLD OUTBREAK THAT OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN
JANUARY 2008.

ALTHOUGH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CRATER TO LEVELS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RIVALING HISTORIC FREEZES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...NOR DOES IT
APPEAR TO CONTAIN A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF TRUE/UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
THAT WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...BUT
ANY THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GLADES
AND PERHAPS HENDRY COUNTIES...IF AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FREEZING SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE PENINSULA...AND CALM
WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

[JonathanBelles]

Denis...a very good ABC met has taken snow OUT of the forecast. He says the cold will come, cold enough for snow...but not at the time the moisture will be here.

[jinftl]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CAUSE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF EFFECTING MAINLY
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM ABOUT HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTHWARD. COULD
ALSO BE SOME SPRINKLES DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
CAN`T RULE OUT A SNOW FLAKE OR TWO AS MENTIONED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. OVERALL
THOUGH...IT WILL FEEL RATHER COOL AND BLUSTERY.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR
IN AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY HELPING TO PUSH THE CLOUDS BACK
OUT OVER THE GULF. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ADVECTIVE FREEZE EVENT
SETTING UP FOR THE NATURE COAST...POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD INTO
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES. WILL PROBABLY NOT GET THE NECESSARY
3 OR MORE HOURS AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK
COUNTIES...BUT WITH SO MUCH OF THE CROPS...SUCH AS STRAWBERRIES...
IN THE AREA NEARING PEAK WILL ADD THEM TO THE FREEZE WATCH.

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINING STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND SHIFT BACK OUT INTO THE GULF...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
STATE AT THE SURFACE WITH A CONTINUED UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FRI
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

[frankthetank]

I put today in the win column. Started off very nice with sunshine, clouds came in through the afternoon, a few sprinkles, and then cleared out again this evening. Beautiful evening for grilling out. I will say that i went into the Atlantic up to my chest and it was cold! There were a few people swimming and even a few guys way out by the darker water (deep) snorkeling? Bunch of nice yachts and saw a coastguard boat tonite (those guys have it rough down here...more like the thong patrol )

Just looking at the obs out of Cancun. They hit 84F today (warmest in at least 10 days), but the dewpoint was only 50F! That is some dry air. Must be the west winds down there.