SIO: FANELE - Extratropical

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 50 knots

Hurricane-force winds, very likely.

[HURAKAN]

482
WTIO30 FMEE 191245

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/7/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 1200 UTC :
21.8S / 41.0E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 00 UTC: 20.5S/41.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/01/20 12 UTC: 19.9S/42.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/01/21 00 UTC: 20.4S/43.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 21.8S/45.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.6S/47.6E OVERLAND.
72H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 24.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5+

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND CAN SUPPORT 4.0
-, BUT FINAL T NUMBER IS RESTRICTED TO 3.5+ DUE TO DVORAK RULES
CONSTRAINTS.
THE SYSTEM SHOWS A VERY SMALL INNER CORE, BUT A HINT OF AN EYE IS
EXHIBITED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU 0641Z)
FANELE IS BENEATH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING
POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.


SO FANELE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN REGULARLY. HOWEVER A DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE 36 HOURS COULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION.

MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND
SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Madagascar looks like the meat in a tropical cyclone sandwich...

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 191500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 41.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 41.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.0S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.2S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.8S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 41.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (FANELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 09S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A POSSIBLE EYE. A 191058z AMSR-E
IMAGE DEPICTS A PINPOINT MICROWAVE EYE AS WELL AS EXCELLENT CONV-
ECTIVE BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 09S HAS TRACKED SLOWLY
WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER A WEAK FINGER OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TC 08S. AFTER
TAU 12-24 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH AFRICA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TC 09S IS NOW
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL INTERACTION POSSIBLE WITH TC 08S NEAR
20/00Z AS THE SYSTEMS APPROACH WITHIN 430 NM WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY
AFFECT THE FORECAST TRACKS OF BOTH STORMS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND
201500Z. REFER TO TC 08S (ERIC) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Chacor]

It's doing quite well and isn't upwelling itself.

[HURAKAN]

19/1430 UTC 21.9S 41.1E T4.0/4.0 FANELE -- Southwest Indian

It's doing quite well and isn't upwelling itself.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Now that rapidly deepened over the last 12 hours or so. Probably about 75 kt for its actual intensity.

[HURAKAN]

658
WTIO30 FMEE 191812

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/7/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/19 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7S / 41.3E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/20 06 UTC: 20.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/01/20 18 UTC: 20.1S/43.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 21.1S/44.5E OVERLAND.
48H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 22.7S/46.3E OVERLAND.
60H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 24.2S/48.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 25.5S/50.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+
MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI/1621Z - SSMIS/1508Z - AMSU/1406Z) SHOWS CLEARLY A
VERY SMALL INNER CORE WITH A VERY SMALL EYE TOO.
FANELE IS BENEATH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD AND A STRENGTHENING
POLEWARD ONE, RELATED TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SO FANELE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN REGULARLY. HOWEVER A DRY AIR
INTRUSION IN THE 36 HOURS COULD LIMIT THIS INTENSIFICATION.
MOST AF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SHOW AN EASTERN TURN TOWARDS THE WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT THEY ARE STILL SOME SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK AND
SPEED. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS.
INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JAN 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 21:39:31 S Lon : 41:21:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.9 5.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -15.2C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JAN 2009 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 21:35:26 S Lon : 41:17:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 979.3mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 5.5 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -19.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JAN 2009 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 21:27:00 S Lon : 41:31:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 966.2mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.5 5.6 5.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -27.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

19/2030 UTC 21.4S 41.5E T4.5/4.5 FANELE -- Southwest Indian

[Chacor]

TPXS11 PGTW 192114

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE)

B. 19/2030Z

C. 21.4S

D. 41.5E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/18HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO BANDING EYE/ANMTN. BANDING EYE USED DUE TO
24 HR TREND NOT ABOVE 2.0. COOLING OW EYE LAST IMAGES. CNVCTN
WRAP OF 1.30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT 4.0. MET BASED ON 18 HRS
3.5. PT AGREES WITH 4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/1530Z 21.7S 41.2E WIND
19/1621Z 21.7S 41.4E SSMI


OATES