Florida Weather

[MiamiensisWx]

The latest NWS Miami forecast projects warmer lows (than originally expected) on Tuesday and Wednesday nights - it does not indicate coastal lows below 40 F south of central Palm Beach County.

Excerpt from the latest NWS Miami AFD:

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD...WITH THIS EVENT APPEARING TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE COLD OUTBREAK THAT OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN
JANUARY 2008. ALTHOUGH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CRATER TO LEVELS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RIVALING HISTORIC FREEZES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...NOR DOES IT
APPEAR TO CONTAIN A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF TRUE/UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
THAT WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THIS AREA.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...BUT
ANY THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GLADES
AND PERHAPS HENDRY COUNTIES...IF AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FREEZING SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE PENINSULA...AND CALM
WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

Personally, I've maintained skepticism with regards to sub-40 F lows (in coastal SE Florida) over the past few days, since the synoptic set-up indicates the relatively weak surface ridge will eject eastward relatively quickly. Recent model data, including the ECMWF, suggests the prospects of a cold radiational night may be diminishing on Wednesday, since the low level wind field will gradually exhibit an increasing NNE (onshore) component. The recent NWS Miami AFDs indicate the cold event will be short lived as well. Interestingly, if lows do not drop below 40 F across the majority of coastal SE Florida, it will partially support my previous research on the PDO and the duration/intensity of cold events in south Florida. The current -ENSO/-PDO regime typically does not support severe cold events with greater longevity in south Florida.

Overall, this event appears to be unimpressive...

[gatorcane]

The latest NWS Miami forecast projects warmer lows (than originally expected) on Tuesday and Wednesday nights - it does not indicate coastal lows below 40 F south of central Palm Beach County.

Excerpt from the latest NWS Miami AFD:

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD...WITH THIS EVENT APPEARING TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE COLD OUTBREAK THAT OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN
JANUARY 2008. ALTHOUGH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CRATER TO LEVELS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RIVALING HISTORIC FREEZES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...NOR DOES IT
APPEAR TO CONTAIN A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF TRUE/UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
THAT WOULD BE NECESSARY FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THIS AREA.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...BUT
ANY THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GLADES
AND PERHAPS HENDRY COUNTIES...IF AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...AND A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FREEZING SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE PENINSULA...AND CALM
WINDS/DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

Personally, I've maintained skepticism with regards to sub-40 F lows (in coastal SE Florida) over the past few days, since the synoptic set-up indicates the relatively weak surface ridge will eject eastward relatively quickly. Recent model data, including the ECMWF, suggests the prospects of a cold radiational night may be diminishing on Wednesday, since the low level wind field will gradually exhibit an increasing NNE (onshore) component. The recent NWS Miami AFDs indicate the cold event will be short lived as well. Interestingly, if lows do not drop below 40 F across the majority of coastal SE Florida, it will partially support my previous research on the PDO and the duration/intensity of cold events in south Florida. The current -ENSO/-PDO regime typically does not support severe cold events with greater longevity in south Florida.

Overall, this event appears to be unimpressive...

Indeed looks like those projected lows for SE Florida keep getting nudged up, as they typically do. Looks like they have even taken the mention of patchy frost out of the forecast for all of SE Florida from Palm Beach County southward.

[JonathanBelles]

The radar looks interesting right now. Those cells look better than a 20-30% forecast.

[JonathanBelles]

Interesting notice from Bay News 9. The upper levels of the atmosphere are much cooler than they anticipated, which is spouting off the stronger than anticipated storms. They also seem to be strengthening, which I find odd. Seems like the may be hail in the those cells, but if that is reaching the ground I dont know.

[gatorcane]

Indeed, seems like POPS should be raised to about 80% with that line of storms/squalls about ready to hammer the Tampa Bay area:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[JonathanBelles]

I'm very surprised on how well this line looks. This was supposed to be the weaker of the two lines.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HOLY CRAPOLA!!!! These storms look pretty strong!!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw

Strong thunderstorms nearing tampa bay...

[HURAKAN]

[psyclone]

Where did this come from? That's quite a line showers with some intense cells mixed in. They're very small and they're ripping along at about 50 mph so those who get them will probably only see a few minutes of heavy rain. looks like some good ones are headed for Pasco and Pinellas while Citrus and Hernando are already getting theirs.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Interesting velocity radar signatures...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no


Well....the light green means 50 mph wind gusts...if that verifies...
with a pressure near 29.69 mb I wouldn't be surprised...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Strong Wind gusts outside

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is going to be fun to watch

[psyclone]

Mike Clay on Bay news 9 just showed buoy reports out in the gulf behind this front reporting gale force winds. 42036 was sustained at 38 gusting to 45 while another buoy farther northwest just south of apalachicola was sustained over 40! seems the weather service should at least consider a short fused gale warning to deal with this hazard. I see a gale warning is currently in effect on lake O.

[JonathanBelles]

TOR WARNING ISSUED IN SUMTER AND CITRUS COUNTY!!!!

[gatorcane]

Here's the current forecast for Palm Harbor, FL about ready to get hammered by a squal line from the GOM with possible 40-50mph gusts.

Overnight: Isolated showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. West wind between 17 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%

Seriously, 20% chance of rain? Obviously the forecast did not pan out. Is this cold front more intense than expected I wonder?

[psyclone]

LOL! I can attest that palm harbor's rain chance is now 100% per a look out my window.

[gatorcane]

LOL! I can attest that palm harbor's rain chance is now 100% per a look out my window.

LOL - good one...

[gatorcane]

Well there is no doubt this line of SEVERE thunderstorms caught NWS Tampa offguard, 60 mph windgusts?

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... rm+Warning

[psyclone]

It's through my neighborhood. about 4 minutes of heavy rain and gusts to around 40. looked tropical. SVR now out for pinellas and hillsborough. I would not want to be driving over the howard frankland right now. incidentally, winds remain very gusty here even though the rain is over.

[JonathanBelles]

Man alive.....the last few mins were hectic. I lost power for a few mins. Then it came back, and Denis has a TOR sig on the TV off the coast, with an SVR in place for Pinellas/Hillborough. YIKES! Im glad it went away. Who could have guessed that I would be facing a tornado threat tonight.