SIO: FANELE - Extratropical

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

JTWC still awkwardly high at 956 mb/low at 90 kt given MF's estimation.

[somethingfunny]

ERC underway?

It could be upwelling. This storm hasn't moved a whole lot over the past few days. Fanele may have just reached her peak.

I'll take my crow with Hickory BBQ Sauce, please!

[CrazyC83]

The JTWC only updates every 12 hours though?

My guess for peak 1-min winds was 120 kt (at 1200Z) based on all the data out there. It has probably weakened some since then, I am guessing about 110 kt now. My guess for the current pressure is 944mb.

[Chacor]

JTWC best-track is, as per DOD requirements, six-hourly.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 201833

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/7/20082009
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/20 AT 1800 UTC :
20.4S / 43.1E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 927 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 300 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/21 06 UTC: 21.6S/44.2E OVERLAND.
24H: 2009/01/21 18 UTC: 23.1S/46.5E OVERLAND.
36H: 2009/01/22 06 UTC: 24.5S/48.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/01/22 18 UTC: 25.9S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/23 06 UTC: 28.3S/51.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/23 18 UTC: 30.5S/53.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5, CI=6.0
ON THE LAST IR IMAGERY, EYE IS LESS WELL DEFINED AND IS COOLER.
HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY TILL THE LANDFALL, WHICH IS FORECAST BETWEEN BELO AND MOROMBE
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS.
FANALE HAS INDEED STARTED TO TRACK EASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS, AND
GETS CLOSER TO THE WESTERN MALAGASY COAST.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SPEED.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS MADAGASCAR AND TO BE BACK AT SEA WITHI
THE NEST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Closer and closer to landfall.

[Calasanjy]

And of course as it gets closer to landfall, the weakening begins. Based solely on that last UV image, I would estimate 80-85 knots 1-minute. It's amazing how quickly small circulations can explode and then weaken - just 48 hours ago Fanele was barely a tropical depression.

[HURAKAN]

[Category 5]

IR almost appears to show a double eyewall. Microwave doesn't really show it though.

Definitely weakening now.

[Crostorm]

RED CONDITION ON ZONE MPSvc4:

EXTREME CONDITION COULD BE START BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT.

PRESENT TC WAVE ARRIVED IS JUST UNDER 3.5M (MAX. 7M HIGH) BUT IN FEW TIME FROM THE WEST SIDE ON ALL COAST POSITION, SPECIALLY FROM REHARAKA TO MOROMBE AND FEZA TO TOLIARA, TC WAVE BEGIN EXTREMLY DANGEROUS AS PROBABLY MORE THAN 6M HIGH (MAX.>12M HIGH).

WIND EXPECTING MORE THAN 150KM/H (UPTO 200KM/H).

FLOOD IS EXPECTING ON SEVERALS DISTRICTS: ANTSALOVA, BELO-TSIBIHIRINA, MAHAVO, MORONDAVA AND MOROMBE.

ORANGE CONDITION ON ZONE MPSvc5:

TC FANELE COULD BE TAKE A DIFFERENT ROAD THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CROSS SOUTH MADAGASCAR AXIS BASED FROM NORTH OF MORONDAVA (AMPATAKA) TO TOLAGNARO.

ALL SOUTH DISTRICT COULD BE TOUCHED DIFFERENTLY.
http://world-meteo.site.voila.fr/

[CrazyC83]

12 meter (40 foot) waves? What would the storm surge be for a typical Category 3 storm approaching from that side of Madagascar?

[CrazyC83]

It still looks quite solid on microwave images. I would guess the 1-min winds are around 100-105 kt.

[Crostorm]

360
WTIO30 FMEE 210024

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/7/20082009
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FANELE)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/21 AT 0000 UTC :
20.6S / 43.8E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 927 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 300 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/21 12 UTC: 22.0S/45.1E OVERLAND.
24H: 2009/01/22 00 UTC: 23.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/01/22 12 UTC: 23.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/23 00 UTC: 25.1S/50.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/23 12 UTC: 26.2S/51.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/24 00 UTC: 27.5S/53.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5, CI=6.0
ON THE LAST IR IMAGERY, EYE IS LESS WELL DEFINED AND HAS BECOME COOLER.
THE LANDFALL IS FORECAST IN THE SOUTH OF MORONDAVA, IN THE VICINITY OF
BELO, WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CROSS MADAGASCAR AND TO BE BACK AT SEA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITHOUT SIGNIFICANTLY REINTENSIFYING.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SPEED.


.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[margiek]

The JTWC only updates every 12 hours though?

For this basin, JTWC forecasts every 12 hours, but the intensity and position is updated every six hours. Most of the time you can see the new intensity and position on the NRLMRY imagery shortly after the beginning of each forecast cycle (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z).

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]