Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST THU JAN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHCENTRAL
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS LOOSING RAPIDLY ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE FA. THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL.
A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT LIMITING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

AN UPPER LEVER LOW (TUTT) WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 50W EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD PATTERN IS EXHIBITING A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...
AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OVER THE FA BY EARLY SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WE NEED TO STAY TUNE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST FRI JAN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WHICH HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. LATEST MIMIC-TPW
SHOWS THIS FEATURE WELL DEFINED...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PROPAGATING SLOWLY WESTWARD FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR 54W EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THIS
FEATURE TO THE LOCAL AREA. GFS COMPUTER MODEL SHOWED THAT THE
BIGGEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
18Z...WHEN WE EXPECT THAT THE MOISTURE ALREADY INCREASING...WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. NAM12 MODEL FORECAST A WET SATURDAY ALSO. IN FACT...THE
17/06Z FORECAST SOUNDING FROM NAM12 SHOWS THAT PW VALUES WILL BE
OVER 2.00 INCHES BY THAT TIME. MOST COMPUTER MODEL ALSO AGREE THAT
A DRIER TREND WILL START ON TUESDAY AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAVE OUR AREA...AND OUR LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATE BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THAT TIME. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
DURING THE NEXT DAYS.

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[Gustywind]

Tkanks Luis, how are you? HI!
Always there during the good and the worst moments! That's great for all that weather forecasts, i appreciate. See you and happy new year! I wish more friendly links here and more tolerance too that will be "perfect"!
Gustywind

Happy new year to you and happy Hurricane season tracking in a few months.

Absolutely tkanks i enjoy it...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST SAT JAN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA...ACCOMPANIED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NWS DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALREADY AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE
DAY...PRODUCING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWED A
MID LEVEL VORTEX SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...WHICH STILL LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...LOOK
MORE DIFFUSE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...AND IS NOT MOVING AT ALL.
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL VORTEX MENTIONED ABOVE...A DRY SLOT CAN BE
SEEN ALSO IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES. NAMS12 AND GFS COMPUTER
MODELS...HANDLE THIS FEATURE VERY WELL...BRINGING BOTH MODEL THIS
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS VERIFY...WE MAY GET DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR SUNDAY...THAN EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE AREA...TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE BLOWING LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE THROUGH...BUT WILL SHIFT SOON SOUTHEAST
AFTER THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
DAYS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LEAVE OUR LOCAL AREA.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST SUN JAN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HOLD A RIDGE OUT OF SOUTH
AMERICA OVER SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT KITTS INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME A CUT-OFF LOW AT 20 NORTH AND 52 WEST WILL INTENSIFY AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST. WHEN A SHORT WAVE KICKS OUT OF THIS TROUGH IT WILL
PASS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY NIGHTS AND THEN IT WILL PUSH
THE CUT-OFF LOW AHEAD OF IT INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A
SECOND WEAK CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND DEEPEN OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TUESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...EXTENDING OUT OF A LOW
OVER LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...WILL PUT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS JUST NORTHWEST OF A WEAK RIDGE THAT WILL CHANGE LITTLE
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL BE COMPLETE BY
MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT CROSSED PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY HAS ENTERED THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SLOT OF DRY AIR IS
ROTATING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE MASS OF
MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERY WEATHER YESTERDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN RETREAT SLOWLY BACK OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THE
MONDAY AFTER NEXT. AFTER IT DOES SO...FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
AGAIN AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY AND RIDGING
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO OUR
NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
WATERS SURROUNDING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN
CALLED FOR TODAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED DURING THE DAY AND
SHOWERS PRESENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
DISSIPATE. THE GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT THE
BEST WATER CONTENT WAS HAD YESTERDAY AND THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL REMAIN MODEST...BETWEEN 1.16
AND 1.6 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS...THEY WILL NOT
BE AS HEAVY NOR AS WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO THE
MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE SUPPORTED IN THE MID-LEVELS
AFTER MONDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY AT 700 MB WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ENDING SEVERAL DAYS OF SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.
BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER THAN LAST WEEK. FEW
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE GRIDS.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST MON JAN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-WEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ONLY AFTER THE
MID LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 50
WEST. DRIEST AIR AT 500 MB TODAY BUT WILL SHIFT DOWNWARD TO AROUND
700 MB BY THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE THAT REMAINS IN THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. IT WILL
ALSO BLOCK ALL APPROACHING FRONTS...CAUSING THEM TO STALL EITHER
OVER HISPANIOLA OR COME ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AS 23 NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY WITH
MOISTURE BANDS WHERE THEY ARE NOT AND DRY SLOTS WHERE MOIST BANDS
ARE...BUT UPSTREAM PATCHES SEEMED TO HAVE BEEN PLACED FAIRLY WELL.
CURRENTLY FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR. THOUGH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE OVER NAGUABO AND HUMACAO AS OF 445 AM
AST. NEXT BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. IF
MODELS HOLD IT COULD ALSO BE A DRY WEEKEND RIGHT AFTER A MOIST
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN CHANGING SO LITTLE EXPECT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN OVERALL WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 PM AST TUE JAN 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHY MOISTURE...CAUGHT IN THIS
FLOW...WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING...EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE VI TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM TRYING TO PRODUCE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
TOMORROW...BUT DECIDED TO BACK OFF THESE SOLUTIONS A BIT AS
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ERODING A BIT AS ITS PROGRESSING WESTWARD.
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR APPEARS TO BE ON TAP THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST WED JAN 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE ELONGATED AREA OF MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN
STREAMING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS BROUGHT SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS BAND OF MOISTURE TO SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. A SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEPICTED WELL IN
LATEST MODEL DATA BEHIND THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE VI BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. A RETURN TO
MUCH DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS THEN
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS CURRENT AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST TO BRING IN ALIGNMENT WITH LATEST MODEL DATA
REFLECTING HIGHER CHANGES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST THU JAN 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY... EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE LAND MASS HAS NOT EXPERIENCE
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE DOPPLER RADAR
IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH MID MORNING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ALSO
ENHANCING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEREFORE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2009

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST
NORTHWEST TODAY...BEFORE STALLING AGAIN AND DISSIPATING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN
THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT GENERATED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA REDUCING
THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSTABLE ENHANCING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS. THE GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AT MID LEVELS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2009


.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA AND EXPECTING TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT LOW LEVEL...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SECTION
OF HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE
DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS.

LOW TO MID TROUGH REFLECTION LOCATED NEAR 61.5 WEST THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS SOME
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BY.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH AN EASTERLY WIND
FLOW AVERAGING FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SKY WILL
BECOME VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVE ALONG WITH A STEERING WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

THERE STILL SOME FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...WITH MAY HELP FOR SOME
OF THE EXPECTED SHOWERS TO BE ENHANCED...RESULTING IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SLOPES SUCH AS THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF LAS MARIAS AND SAN SEBASTIAN. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS LOCAL
ROADWAYS...URDERPASSES...SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST SUN JAN 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A GROUP OF CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ASSOCIATED TO A LOW TO MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION. HOWEVER...A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED TOWARD THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW.
THESE CLOUDS MAY BE ACCOMPANYING WITH LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

OTHER THAN THOSE LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND AND COASTAL WATERS.

MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
TEMPORARILY POCKETS OF 20-22 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EAST NORTHEASTERLY GENERATED
WAVES AND MODERATE ENE SWELLS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FOR NOW...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

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[cycloneye]

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST 26/0000Z TJSJ SOUNDING CONTINUE TO
DEPICT STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR.
WEAK TROUGH PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE SURFACE HIGH ARE SHOWING UP
SOUTH AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO AS THEY PROPAGATE WESTWARD IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...YET ARE BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT FAIR AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CHANCES OF BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE
WINDS...CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MID-
WEEK.

NO ORGANIZED WEATHER PATTERNS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXIST
UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN A STRONG TROUGH WILL EJECT
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SOUTHWARD
TRACK DISPLACEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS...TO AFFECT THE REGION AS
IT SWEEPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD. DUE TO THE INHERENT NATURE OF ERROR
ENHANCEMENT WITH TIME IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD OFF IN THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE POP...SKY...AND
WEATHER GRIDS UNTIL A LATER DATE...WHEN MORE CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT EXIST.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2009

.DISCUSSION... PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THIS AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH MAINLY
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MIMIC-TPW SHOWS AN AREA
OF MOISTURE...LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATER
IN THE WEEK...GFS40 COMPUTER MODEL IS SUGGESTING THAT A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE THE EASTERN U.S...AND WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
A DECREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OTHER THAN
THAT...NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE
EXPECTED.

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[cycloneye]

/ISSUED 605 AM AST WED JAN 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...EXPECT THIS SAME HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO STEER
SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN
MAINLY SCATTERED...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS THE VI AND SMALLER
ISLANDS...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

THE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
TODAY...WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY
STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. WHILE
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND
FOR THE WINDS TO CORRESPONDINGLY RELAX ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
358 PM AST THU JAN 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING LOSING MOMENTUM IN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GFS AND THE NAM MODEL SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION...THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS TIME.

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[cycloneye]

PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST THU JAN 29 2009

PRZ001-004-292200-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM LGT RAIN 75 72 88 E10G20 30.03R
PONCE MOSUNNY 84 72 65 SE12 29.97S
MAYAGUEZ PTSUNNY 81 68 65 NE6 30.00R
AGUADILLA MOSUNNY 79 68 69 E18G28 30.02R

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... ype=hourly

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301954
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 PM AST FRI JAN 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO OUR LOCAL NORTHERN WATERS ON
SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY SHOWING A FEW VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THIS AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO AFFECT THE EASTERN TIP OF THE ISLAND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH OUR LOCAL REGION BUT A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO REACH LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE WIND DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...THEREFORE INCREASING THE SHOWERS DEVELOP EMT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST SAT JAN 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS PR AND
ITS SURROUNDING WATERS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NORTHEAST
OF SJU NORTH OF 19N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW NORTH OF
20N AND CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS NOTED OVR THE MONA PASSAGE. AMPLE HEATING LATER THIS
MORNING AND WEAK SFC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE INTERACTION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NAM12 SEEMS THE MORE BULLISH INDICATING
HEAVY CONVECTION OVR THE INTERIOR OF PR. GFS NOT AS BULLISH BUT
STILL INDICATES SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE SCT
ACTIVITY WITH SOME HEAVY RAINERS POSSIBLE AS STEERING CURRENTS
REMAIN WEAK. ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE CURRENT CDFNT OVR THE
WRN ATLC TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT NEARS PUERTO RICO TOMORROW. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
MUCH WOULD BE LEFT OF THIS FRONT BY THE TIME IT GETS
HERE...PROBABLY JUST SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST WHERE MODELS INDICATE NERLY
WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY ON MONDAY.

MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING STRENGHTENS MON-WED AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVR THE CNTRL ATLC. ONLY ISOLD SHRA CVRG EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME PRIMARILY OVR THE WRN INTERIOR OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVER THE ERN THIRD DURING THE PREDAWN HRS. NEXT CDFNT LOOKS TO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF CROSSING THE ISLAND ON THU BUT STILL SVRL DAYS
OUT.

AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ESE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

MARINE...BUOY 41043 SHOWS WAVES OF 8.2 FEET WITH 10SEC PERIOD
SWELLS. WNA MODEL SHOWS SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT A NEW NW SWELL WILL START AFFECTING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES LATE SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
MID WEEK. SCA CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPECTED SUN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST PERIOD.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST SUN FEB 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRES OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLC TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON MONDAY. MID-LVL ANTICYCLONE WILL REESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. ANOTHER CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CDFNT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA ATTM WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVR THAT REGION PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT GETS CLOSER TO PR. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STALL FRONT NW OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING IT ON MON. METAR PLOTS AND TJUA VWP SHOW WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH NORTH WINDS AT THE SFC THROUGH 5KFT
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15KT. DOES NOT LOOK THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF SHRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NAM12 INDICATING BEST CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE USVI AND THE SW CORNER OF PR. WINDS BECOME
MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS SHRA ACTIVITY TO
THE EAST THIRD OF PR.

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