Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[southerngale]

Meanwhile, it was quite chilly this morning. 26 and 27 at the two closest KFDM Instaweather (Weatherbug) stations on each side of me. It's warmed up to 52 though.

And of course no snow to go with it, so it's just cold. Bleh. However, we got to enjoy a nice fire in the fireplace last night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Today's 12z GFS continues to look "interesting" with a battle ground region between rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow setting up over Oklahoma early next week...

Monday morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
Monday afternoon - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
Monday evening - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
Tuesday early morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
Tuesday morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
Tuesday afternoon - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

It looks like somebody will be getting some decent icing during this period. Will it be OKC? Tulsa? Wichita? At this point, it is too early to tell. It does look like the potential is there though for a nasty event in a couple of places.

Also - Beyond the ice threat early next week, it appears as though the threat for some snow/sleet may arrive later in the week. As the upper low/west coast trough lifts out, it could cool the upper levels and bring a chance of precipitation (likely in the form of snow/sleet) to Oklahoma and other areas of the Southern Plains. The 12z CMC shows this happening on Wednesday, while the 12z GFS shows this happening on Friday. It will be something to watch for sure.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Canadian seems on board for a narrow band of freezing/frozen between rain and a band of snow, all centered over Oklahoma next Wednesday.

I'm making the assumption that since the 540 dm thickness line is North of the 850 mb freezing line, the surface freezing line may be a tad farther South than the 850 line, but that is just an assumption.

[srainhoutx]

I think the jury is still out concerning next week as the models have flip flopped from run to run. One key factor will be "when" the cut off low ejects NE, if it does at all. With NOAA dropsonde data from yesterday and today, perhaps a solution will eventually be narrowed down. Breaking down a ridge this strong the PAC is very difficult as the HPC mentioned yesterday. Something to watch though. With that said, Fairbanks AK offers a "little hope" in the longer term mid range...snipet...

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
535 AM AKST THU JAN 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...


MID RANGE: THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY FROM
RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. THROUGH FRI THE MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT GETS PINCHED OFF ACROSS
THE BEAUFORT SEA THURSDAY SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE YUKON BY
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN WHICH HAD BEEN INSISTENT ON
DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE HAVE NOW BACKED AWAY
FROM THIS IDEA AND ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. BY SUNDAY... THE
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO BECOME PART OF A
LARGER EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WITH A COMPLEX UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
BERING SEA. BY EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK...THE SPREAD INCREASES AND
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE MOVES EAST TO
AROUND 120-125W AS THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX IN THE BERING SEA PUSHES
EAST INTO THE GULF. MODELS REALLY STRUGGLE WITH SOME ENERGY THAT
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC TO FORM A COLD TROUGH ACROSS
ALASKA. THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL BE BACK INTO THE DEEP FREEZE AGAIN BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...
AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL LIKELY NOT BE
UNDER MID-LATE NEXT WEEK HAVE HELD OFF ON A PNS...BUT THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER LATER THIS WEEK IF MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A ANOTHER COLD SNAP TO END THE MONTH. CB

HPC's Final Extended thoughts todays concerning the model discrepancy...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

1050+mb high in Canada right now...



Impressive.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS is more aggressive with pushing the freezing line south next week, and now shows a decent icing event setting up for most of the state of Oklahoma next Monday through Wednesday...

Monday afternoon - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif
Monday evening - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
Tuesday early morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
Tuesday morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif
Tuesday afternoon - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
Tuesday evening - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif
Wednesday early morning - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

If this run were correct, then OKC would receive around 0.4 to 0.5" of liquid while below freezing. While not crippling, that amount of freezing rain would definitely be enough to cause some problems.

[josephtwyman]

the 18znam preciptype shows an increase or freezing rain for northwest of metroplex moving south! something need to be watched from monday -wednesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
348 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO KS FOLLOWED BY A RATHER GRADUAL
COOLDOWN FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL/N PLAINS. AIR CURRENTLY OVER
DAKOTAS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD RELATIVE TO SOME OF THE EARLIER
ARCTIC BLASTS THIS SEASON... BUT THE SOURCE REGION IS A DIFFERENT
STORY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 1056-MB HIGH OVER W CANADA. HAVE USED THE
NAM12 3-H T AND WIND GRIDS TO DEPICT A RELATIVELY GRADUAL COOLDOWN
AND TURNING/INCREASING OF WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY.
BEFORE THE COLDER AIR BEGINS ITS SLOW INVASION... MILD TO WARM
CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED VERY DRY LOW LEVELS AGAIN WILL HEIGHTEN
THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR S AND W. WIND SHIFT ALSO WILL BE
A CONCERN. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT WIND AND RH CRITERIA ARE
UNLIKELY TO OVERLAP FOR LONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RED FLAG HEADLINES.
WE WILL ADDRESS THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

GRADUAL CHILLDOWN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY SATURDAY IT LOOKS UNLIKELY THAT MANY AREAS ACROSS
OUR N WILL GET OUT OF THE 30S GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE
ANCHORING HIGH OVER CANADA. LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER RANGE OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT... AS ONCE THIS AIR MASS GETS A HOLD OF THE
AREA IT WILL BE SLOW TO RELEASE ITS GRIP.

WITH COLD AIR LIKELY TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY LATE WEEKEND...
CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR A WINTER PRECIP EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS OF SHALLOW SUBFREEZING SFC AIR AND
1000-500 THICKNESSES WELL ABOVE R/S THRESHOLDS INDICATES THAT ANY
WINTER PRECIP IS MORE APT TO BE ICE THAN SNOW. LIGHT PRECIP MAY
INITIATE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE OVER THE SHALLOW BUT STILL-DRY SFC AIR. LOW POPS ARE
THUS INTRODUCED SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DEPICT HEAVIER PRECIP... TOTALS IN
THE 0.5-1 INCH RANGE... FROM N TX NE ACROSS S/E OK INTO AR/MO.
THESE AREAS COINCIDE WITH GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE N OF
STRENGTHENING SFC FRONT ACROSS TX. CURRENT SFC T FORECASTS WOULD
PLACE THE WORST COMBINATION OF SUBFREEZING AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIP
- AND THUS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE - NEAR OR
PARALLEL TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY SEEN IN
MED-RANGE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL... ALL ASPECTS
OF THIS FORECAST ARE QUITE LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BETWEEN
NOW AND MONDAY. THESE INCLUDE AMOUNTS... TYPE... AND AREA/S MOST
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. HARD TO ENVISION A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP
GIVEN THE LONG-STANDING DRYNESS IN THE AREA... BUT AMOUNTS
EVENTUALLY COULD SUPPORT WINTER STORM OR ICE STORM CRITERIA... OR
AT LEAST MAKE THE GOING TOUGH ON MONDAY-TUESDAY IN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 27 38 20 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 60 26 40 20 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 28 43 25 / 10 0 10 0
GAGE OK 51 21 36 19 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 22 30 18 / 0 10 10 10
DURANT OK 68 30 43 26 / 10 10 0 0

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ICE STORM POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE FORECAST
CONCERNS TODAY.

THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR IS DUE INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH TODAY AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE AIR INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT
COLD DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN AS THE WINDS PICK UP.
HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR WILL BE FELT IN FULL FORCE BY TONIGHT AS
NORTH WINDS STAY UP AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S.

ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SO SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
POPS ARE NEGLIGIBLE...BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS BECOMES MUCH TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR...IT WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN...CHANGING TO VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BREAK OUT LATE AT NIGHT. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. MODEL DIFFERENCES
PRECLUDE REMOVING PRECIPITATION THOUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED
AND HAVE THEN TIED TEMPERATURES MORE TO THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAN
ANYTHING ELSE WITH THE SATURATED AIRMASS LIKELY RESIDING OVER THE
AREA. THE END RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ICE
STORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STAY TUNED AS TIMING OF THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED IN
LATER FORECASTS.

IN THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
AND WIND VARIABILITY IS SEEN AMONGST THE MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES AND THUS HAVE PLAYED THE MODDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW. IF
SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER IS PRESENT...THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
COOLER DURING THE DAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE ON MAXIMUMS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. DID GO COLDER THAN THE GFS MOS ON MINIMUMS TONIGHT AND
WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE ECMWF. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THE
COLD READINGS TONIGHT IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS BUT THE CLOUDS WILL
INHIBIT THE TEMPERATURE FALL MORE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 21 35 24 / 20 20 10 10
FSM 67 29 42 28 / 20 20 10 10
MLC 65 25 39 27 / 20 20 10 10
BVO 51 18 34 20 / 20 20 10 10
FYV 61 21 37 23 / 20 20 10 10
BYV 60 20 36 24 / 20 20 10 10
MKO 59 23 39 24 / 20 20 10 10
MIO 54 19 35 22 / 20 20 10 10
F10 59 24 38 25 / 20 20 10 10
HHW 71 32 44 30 / 20 20 10 10

[Portastorm]

EWG, quit rubbing it in!

Now let me get back to my 80 degrees in winter/drought conditions.

[Ed Mahmoud]

the 18znam preciptype shows an increase or freezing rain for northwest of metroplex moving south! something need to be watched from monday -wednesday

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_18z/wrfloop.html


No it doesn't. Not at all. The 18Z NAM ends Monday at 6Z, or Sunday night, but it certainly does not show freezing rain anywhere near Texas or Oklahoma on Sunday.

This is beyond a model reading error, IMHO, this is a deliberate attempt to spam the forum.

I will notify the mods of this post.

[lrak]

Are we suppose to be scared Ed?

When is it going to get cold in S. Tex? I need some rain NOW, or did the rain Nazi move to S. Tex?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Are we suppose to be scared Ed?

When is it going to get cold in S. Tex? I need some rain NOW, or did the rain Nazi move to S. Tex?

Nobody needs to get scared but the Troll.

I have a KofC event tomorrow, but before that, I will set up my sprinkler. It has been way to dry.


If I thought a "Winter Over" thread would anger the snow gods and bring another December 10th Miracle Storm to Houston, I'd try it. But w!shcasting doesn't change the weather one way or the other.


Semi-unrelated, our MUD gets water from wells, but there is a big project nearby laying a 50" watermain, I think from the Trinity. Because I think they have planned more suburban sprawl into my neighborhood and environs, still surrounded by gas leases and grazing cattle. And I like the idea of drinking rainwater that percolated through the soil for dozens of years, rather than recycled toilet flushings from Dallas.

New NAM ends with suggestion of beginning of a light glazing around SPS on Monday.

At 84 hours, I trust the GFS more

[srainhoutx]

HPC mentions in Early Prelim Disco this morning of the modeling issues ahead...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
901 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2009

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 27 2009 - 12Z FRI JAN 30 2009

MODELS HAVE HAD SERIOUS CONTINUTY DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF RUNS AND HAVE TRADED PLACES WITH SOLUTION EVOLUTION IN RUN TO
RUNS. ECMWF HAS REVERTED TO PRIOR 00Z/22 CONTINUTY AFTER A RADICAL
CHANGE IN ITS 12 RUN YTDA AND THE GFS HAS DONE THE SAME BUT WITH A
OPPOSITE RESULT. EARLIER USE OF ENS MEANS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
AGAIN SEEMS HIGHLY PRUDENT AS MEANS WERE BOTH REASONABLY IN
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT.

PREFERENCE TODAY FOR DAYS 3-5 MON-WED IS DOMINATED BY OP 00Z/23
ECMWF WITH SOME MODERATION ADDED IN WITH THE ECMWF 0Z ENS MEAN.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A NON PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION COMPARED TO GFS OF A
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN AS AN OUTSIDER SLIDER ALONG THE
CA COAST CUTTING OFF BEFORE EJECTING INLAND INTO SWRN CONUS LATE
PERIOD. ECMWF ENS MEANS OFFER A WEAKER CONCURRANCE OF THIS
SOLUTION WHICH IS TYPICAL OF AN ENS AVERAGE. A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS EVOLUTION REMAINS AS ECMWF AND ITS ENS MEAN
ARE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO GFS/UKMET AND CMC WHICH ARE VERY
PROGRESSIVE AND DO NOT CLOSE OFF NOR CUT OFF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE
AND COME DOWN INLAND AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SHORTWAVE. RECENT GFS
VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A BIAS OF PROGRESSION TOWARDS EJECTION OF
SHORTWAVES AND CLOSED SYSTEMS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OR COASTAL
EPAC.

DAYS 6 AND 7 THU/FRI IS BEST SOLVED BY USE OF ECMWF ENS MEANS AND
SOME GFS ENS MEAN WHICH KEEPS THE NRN STREAM FLOW PROGRESSIVE BUT
CONTS TO INDICATE THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE TO LOW.

MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EWD ALONG/INTO CONFLUENT
BASICALLY E-W FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS FROM TUES INTO THURS
FROM ERN TX/OK/AR/SRN MO/NRN LA ACROSS KY/TN/WV/VA/NC/MD/DE. NRN
FRINGE OF THE PCPN AXIS MAY SEE LT SNOW OR MIXED PCPN WHILE RAIN
WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE PCPN COVERAGE ELSW. PCPN AXIS AND TYPE
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONFLUENT FLOW
AND OVERRUNNING INTO THE COLD AIR. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 150 MILE
RANGE OF THE H850 -2C ISOTHERM AT THIS TIME BETWEEN MODELS AND IT
WILL TAKE MUCH SHORTER RANGE MODELS TO DETERMINE WHERE THIS WILL
SET UP TO BETTER DEFINE PCPN TYPE.

WWD A PREFERRED DOMINENT ECMWF SOLUTION AGAIN INDICATES A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PICK UP FROM THE EPAC BRINGING HVIER PCPN
INTO SWRN CONUS ESP SOCAL/AZ AND NM AS OPPOSED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS
AND REMAINS OUR PREFERENCE UNTIL A BETTER VERIFYING ECMWF JOINS
THE OTHER MODELS OR THEY FLIP BACK TO THEIR PRIOR SOLUTIONS.
ROSENSTEIN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Re 12Z NAM- looking at map on e-Wall, I thought there'd be an area of icing, but my AccuWx just updated with 2 meter temps, and no icing through Monday.


But again, I liked the old ETA better for winter weather than the WRF.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS has very small amounts of ice Tuesday, but it doesn't take much to cancel school.

ETA


OKC

[srainhoutx]

What I find interesting is the amount of model discrepancy from one run to another. I have also noticed that models have been fairly consistant with keeping the "coldest air" in Canada and AK in the medium/long term range. It will be challenging for the forecasters to nail this down with so much inconsistency in guidance in the medium range. Truly a time when the knowledgeable folks at the NWS will rely on all the tools at their disposal.

Edit to add snipet from HPC Final today...flip flop continues...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
144 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2009

VALID 12Z MON JAN 26 2009 - 12Z FRI JAN 30 2009

MODELS HAVE HAD SERIOUS CONTINUTY DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF RUNS AND HAVE TRADED PLACES WITH SOLUTION EVOLUTION IN RUN TO
RUNS. 00Z ECMWF HAS REVERTED TO PRIOR 00Z/22 CONTINUTY AFTER A
RADICAL CHANGE IN ITS 12 RUN YTDA AND THE GFS HAS DONE THE SAME
BUT WITH A OPPOSITE RESULT WITH ITS 00Z RUN. EARLIER USE OF ENS
MEANS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN SEEMS HIGHLY PRUDENT AS MEANS
WERE BOTH REASONABLY IN AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT.

LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHOWN A VERY STRONG CONTINUITY SHIFT
OF 12Z RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET RIGHT BACK TO THE ECMWF IDEA OF A
STRONGER CLOSED LOW COMING DOWN THE ALONG THE CA COAST RESULTING
IN EITHER A SIG TROF OR CLOSED LOW OFF SOCAL BEFORE EJECTING
INLAND.
NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO CHANGED AGAIN...TO A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
NON CLOSED SOLUTION.

PREFERENCE TODAY FOR BOTH UPDATED NMORNING PRELIMS AND AFTN FINALS
IS DOMINATED BY OP 00Z/23 ECMWF WITH SOME MODERATION ADDED IN WITH
THE ECMWF 0Z ENS MEAN FOR DAYS 3-5 MON/WED. THIS ALLOWS FOR A NON
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS OF 00Z
GFS/CMC/UKMET. RESULT IS A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN AS
AN OUTSIDER SLIDER ALONG THE CA COAST CUTTING OFF BEFORE EJECTING
INLAND INTO SWRN CONUS LATE PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS OFFER A
WEAKER CONCURRANCE OF THIS SOLUTION WHICH IS TYPICAL OF AN ENS
AVERAGE. A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS EVOLUTION REMAINS
AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENS MEAN WERE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THE
00Z RUNS GFS/UKMET AND CMC WHICH WERE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND DID NOT
CLOSE OFF NOR CUT OFF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE AS IT COMES DOWN
INLAND AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SHORTWAVE. NEWER 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHIFTED BACKWARD. THE MODEL WITH THE CLOSED TO CUTOFF SOLUTION IS
NOW OPENED UP AND PROGRESSIVE AND THE NEW 12Z MODELS THAT WERE
PROGRESSIVE BEFORE NOW HAVE RECVERTED TO A CLOSED OFF SOLUTION.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest OKC forecast...

Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. East wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[wx247]

I am definitely going to be spending part of the day tomorrow getting prepared for loss of power. I won't be caught off guard like I was in January of 2007. I knew it was going to ice, but I wasnt prepared to be without power for 14 days!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS continues to show ice early next week for Oklahoma followed by a bought of rain changing to snow later on in the week. Could be a very interesting week..

[vbhoutex]

I am definitely going to be spending part of the day tomorrow getting prepared for loss of power. I won't be caught off guard like I was in January of 2007. I knew it was going to ice, but I wasnt prepared to be without power for 14 days!

Radars shown on our late news showed snow in your area now. Are you getting any? Ice on top of that would be just plain nasty!!!!