On Jan. 18, the British tabloid newspaper The Sun reported that some 40 al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) members died from an outbreak of the plague in the Tizi Ouzou province of Algeria. According to The Sun, the epidemic forced the group to turn its base into a mass grave and flee. Other sources such as the Washington Times have picked up on the story and are reporting that U.S. government sources say the incident occurred but have not confirmed the number of deaths or the agent involved in causing them.
Stratfor is carefully watching these reports to see if first, they are true (remember that the first story is quite often not the correct story), and second, precisely what occurred, in an attempt to determine if this was a natural outbreak of plague, or if it was an instance of the group experimenting with biological warfare.
Plague (sometimes referred to as the Black Death) is a naturally occurring disease that is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. This bacterium is found in rodents and fleas that infest them and exists in many parts of the world, including the western United States. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are some 1,000 to 3,000 cases of plague diagnosed in humans every year; between five and 15 of those cases occur in the United States.
Y. pestis can infect humans in three ways. The bacteria cause pneumonic plague when inhaled, though pneumonic plague can also occur when plague bacteria from another form of transmission infect the lungs. Bubonic plague results when the bacteria enter through a break in the skin (such as a flea bite), and septicemic plague occurs when the bacteria multiply in the victim’s blood (usually after being infected by one of the other types). In general, a flea bite is the primary form of infection, and if the infection is left untreated, it can evolve into a case of pneumonic or septicemic plague.
Bubonic and septicemic plagues are not normally spread from person to person. Pneumonic plague can be contagious if a person inhales respiratory droplets containing the bacteria from an infected person, which usually requires close contact with the infected individual. Y. pestis is a fragile bacterium and does not last long in sunlight or after it is dried. Plague is treatable with antibiotics, which are especially effective if administered early. Wearing a simple surgical mask can protect a person from pneumonic plague infection.
Algeria is one of the many areas where plague occurs naturally, and the country experiences periodic outbreaks of the disease. In 2003, there was an outbreak of plague in Algeria’s Oran province. In that outbreak, there were 11 confirmed and seven suspected cases of plague. All the cases in that episode were bubonic, indicating it was likely spread by fleas.
Plague has long been of interest as a biological warfare weapon, from the reports of Tatars catapulting plague-infected bodies at Genoese sailors in the City of Caffa in the Crimea in the 14th century, to Japan’s efforts to drop clay pots of plague-infected fleas over Manchuria, to the Soviet weapons programs during the Cold War (and perhaps beyond.) While the Tatars and Japanese used the bubonic form of the plague, according to former Soviet scientist Ken Alibek, the Soviet program focused on an aerosolized form of the bacterium designed to cause pneumonic plague.
As an aside, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb is not as cool as the original name of this terrorist group, The Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat. I like that preaching and combat part. Salafi is an Islamic sect closely related with the ruling Wahabbi Muslims of Saudi Arabia. Wahabbism is actually a form of Salafi (those who follow the examples of the first five generations after Mohammad) and named for the Salafist Muhammad ibn Abd-al-Wahhab, whose alliance with the nomadic warriors of the Saud tribe allowed the overthrow of the Hashemite monarchy in Arabia.
