![Image](http://www.fallsky.com/012709/mcd0048.gif)
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST MON JAN 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 270544Z - 271045Z
ONGOING ICE STORM WILL SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT FROM NRN AR/SERN MO
TOWARDS SWRN WV. SLEET SHOULD REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE FARTHER N
ACROSS SRN IL AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. WIDESPREAD LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR...LOCALLY APPROACHING 0.30 IN/HR WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES E/NEWD EXPANSION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM E-CNTRL OK/NWRN AR TO SRN IND/WRN KY
AS OF 0530Z...POWERED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WITH
A 50-55 KT LLJ PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AS EVENING MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT MORE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BROADEN RESULTING
IN A LARGER AREA OF MORE STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT. THUS...OBSERVED
PRECIPITATION RATES FROM 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR SHOULD EXPAND E/NEWD AND
BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN 00Z SGF/LZK RAOBS WILL SUPPORT
BURSTS OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RATES OF PRECIPITATION TO AROUND 0.30
IN/HR...AS NOTED IN 05Z FAYETTEVILLE AR METAR. PTYPE TRANSITION
LINES BETWEEN RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
SLOWLY NWD GIVEN ONLY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE FLOW...AND THE COUNTERING
EFFECTS OF SATURATION DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION VERSUS
LATENT HEAT RELEASE/DOWNWARD HEAT FLUX WHERE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ARE OCCURRING.
..GRAMS.. 01/27/2009
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Starting to plow the roads in towns across southeastern Indiana. Picture taken from a tower cam at Osgood Indiana Hyw Dept at 3:00 this morning. Looks like it's going to get worse before it gets better out here.
![Image](http://www.fallsky.com/012709/0300hrs.jpg)
*Note Snow Depth at 3:30 AM Osgood Indiana 4.5" with heavy snow, visibility less than 100 feet...report called into office by one of our snowplow drivers.