SPO: HETTIE - Tropical Depression: Discussion

[HURAKAN]

WTPS22 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 195 NM RADIUS OF 17.3S 176.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 176.1W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
176.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 176.1W, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A
WELL-DEFINED, BUT SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC. THE MOST RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, ALTHOUGH WINDS AT
THE CENTER ARE LIGHTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
DIFFLUENT, HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS COULD ALLOW THE
CURRENTLY STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT TO RELAX AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO
BUILD OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280200Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 27/0141 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [1000HPA] NEAR 17.7S 176.1W AT 270000 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/GOESSTH VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
9 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRLCE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH, JUST SOUTH OF THE 250HPA
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM OF A 250HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LLCC
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE TO CIRRUS BUT APPEARS TO BE MOVING CLOSER TO
THE CDO LOCATED TO THE EAST. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC LOCATED 0.25 DEGREES FROM EDGE OF CONVECTION
YIELDS DT=3.0. MET=2.5 AND PT=2.0. FT =2.0 BASED ON PT, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
MAY EASE AND THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT 08F MAY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION.


GLOBAL MODELS EC AND UK ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS, WHILE
NOGAPS IS MOVING 08F SOUTHWEST, WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, GFS INTIALLY MOVES 08F SOUTHWEST AND THEN CURVES IT TO
THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AT 270830 UTC.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 27/0804 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [1000HPA] NEAR 18.2S 176.2W AT 270600 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRLCE, POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH, JUST SOUTH OF THE 250HPA
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM OF A 250HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LLCC
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE TO CIRRUS OUTFLOW BUT APPEARS TO BE MOVING
CLOSER TO THE CDO LOCATED TO THE EAST. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE STEERED
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC LOCATED 0.25 DEGREES FROM EDGE OF
CONVECTION YIELDS DT=3.0. MET=PT=2.0. FT BASED ON PT, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
MAY EASE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST APPROACHES. AS A
RESULT, THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT 08F MAY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY, GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS EXIST TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION.


GLOBAL MODELS UK AND NOGAPS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST, WHILE EC
IS MOVING 08F SOUTH WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. ON THE OTHER HAND,
GFS MAINTAINS A WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AT 271430 UTC.


Warning for Tonga:
FLASH
Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Tonga ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 27/0833 UTC 2009 UTC.


Tropical Cyclone Warning

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TONGA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [1000HPA] NEAR 18.2S 176.2W AT 270600 UTC. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT
CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRLCE, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK 08F MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO HA'APAI GROUP, KOTU
GROUP, NOMUKA GROUP AND TONGATAPU GROUP IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS. WINDS MAY POSSIBLY
INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ABOUT HA'APAI GROUP, KOTU GROUP, NOMUKA
GROUP AND TONGATAPU GROUP IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES
WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 271130 UTC OR
EARLIER.
PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 27/1409 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [998HPA] NEAR 18.7S 176.6W AT 271200 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, LATEST
QUIKSCAT AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING
SOUTHSOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRLCE,
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH, SOUTH OF THE 250HPA
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM OF A 250HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LLCC
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE TO CIRRUS OUTFLOW. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A DECREASE IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS.
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST IN THE SHORT TERM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND
PATTERN WITH A WRAP OF 0.55 YIELDS DT=MET=PT=2.5. FT=2.5 BASED ON
MET, THUS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY EASE AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST MOVES THROUGH. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO
IS SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF 08F.
THERE IS STILL A LIKELIHOOD THAT 08F MAY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS. CURRENTLY, GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS EXIST TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION.


GLOBAL MODELS UK AND NOGAPS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST, WHILE EC
IS MOVING 08F SOUTH WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. ON THE OTHER HAND,
GFS MAINTAINS A WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AT 272030 UTC.


---

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Tonga ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 27/1410 UTC 2009 UTC.


Tropical Cyclone Warning

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TONGA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [998HPA] NEAR 18.7S 176.6W AT 271200 UTC. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, LATEST QUIKSCAT AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. EXPECT
CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRLCE, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK 08F MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO HA'APAI GROUP, KOTU
GROUP, NOMUKA GROUP AND TONGATAPU GROUP IN 6 TO 12 HOURS.

NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 45 KNOTS. WINDS MAY POSSIBLY
INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ABOUT HA'APAI GROUP, KOTU GROUP, NOMUKA
GROUP AND TONGATAPU GROUP IN 6 TO 12 HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 271730 UTC OR
EARLIER.
PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

[HURAKAN]

Cheer the shear.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 27/2011 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [997HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S
176.8W AT 271800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRLCE,
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FROM LATEST VIS IMAGERY LLCC WELL EXPOSED ABOUT 36NM TO WEST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. OUTFLOW FAIR
TO SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR
PATTERN YIELDING DT=2.5 MET=PT=2.5. THUS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM
LIES IN AN AREA OF 35-40KT SHEAR, JUST SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
DOWSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SYSTEM STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LOW-LEVEL MONSOON NORTHERLIES. CIMSS INDICATES
DECREASING SHEAR TO SOUTH OF TRACK. HENCE THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE
FOR 08F TO INTENSIFY BUT ONLY IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEFORE
WEAKENING.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
280230 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 280200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.0S 177.0W TO 22.7S 179.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
272330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.2S
177.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S
176.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2S 177.2W, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, BUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IS
BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT AND
WINDSAT IMAGES INDICATE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD. THIS
COULD ALLOW THE CURRENTLY STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT TO RELAX AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO RE-BUILD OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND
POTENTIAL FOR A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290200Z.
//
NNNN

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/0756 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD08F [997HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S
177.4W AT 280600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35
KNOTS BETWEEN 30 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

LLCC LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE CONVECTION AND IS
BEGINNING TO SLIP UNDER THE CDO. SST AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS. THE
SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
UPPER DIFLUENCE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING
DT=PT=3.0 MET=2.5. FT=2.5, BASED ON MET, THUS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.
SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF 20 KNOT SHEAR JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR
TO SOUTH OF TRACK. HENCE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT 08F WILL
INTENSIFY TO CYCLONE STATUS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON THE SYSTEM AND STILL AGREE ON MOVING THE
SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING IT FURTHER.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
281430 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

28/0822 UTC 21.4S 177.1W T2.5/2.5 98P -- Southeast Pacific

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/1011 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HETTIE 08F [995HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8S
177.3W AT 280900 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, RECENT QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE PASSES, AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE, INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS.

LLCC APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF UPPER DIFLUENCE. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT=PT=MET=3.0. FT=3.0 BASED ON PT,
THUS T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF 20 KNOT SHEAR
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. CIMMS
INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS DECREASING TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT, INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.
HETTIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING UP TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE NOT CAPTURED THE INTENSIFICATION OF HETTIE BUT GENERALLY AGREE
ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 282100 UTC 23.1S 178.1W MOV SSW AT 07 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 290900 UTC 23.8S 179.0W MOV SW AT 07 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 292100 UTC 24.3S 179.9W MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 300900 UTC 24.8S 179.2E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HETTIE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 281430 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 35kts-996mb

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Gale Warning 030 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 28/1313 UTC 2009 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone HETTIE 08F [993hPa] CENTRE was located near
22 decimal 0 south 177 decimal 4 west at 281200 UTC.

Position Poor.

Repeat position 22.0S 177.4W at 281200 UTC.

Cyclone moving south at about 9 knots.

Expect sustained winds of 35 knots within 120 nautical miles of
centre
in the southeastern semicircle, increasing to 40 knots in the next 6
hours.

Forecast position near 23.4S 178.3W at 290000 UTC.
and near 24.1S 179.2W at 291200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to
send
reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.
Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov
dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 029.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: Hettie

[Chacor]

NRL has to follow the RSMC with naming, but if they're still using 98P it means they aren't warning on it yet.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (HETTIE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (HETTIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 177.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 177.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.7S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.2S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.4S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 23.3S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 177.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (HETTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
280915Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITH
STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE STORM PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH
MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETRY
DATA WHICH DEPICTS WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. IN THE
NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL TURN THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD. THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND CONVECTION IS SHEARED AWAY FROM
THE LLCC DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 280151Z JAN 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280200) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z AND 291500Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/1414 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HETTIE 08F [993HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0S
177.4W AT 281200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, RECENT QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE PASSES, AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE, INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LLCC WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED UNDER
THE CDO. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT=PT=MET=3.0. FT=3.0
BASED ON PT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF 20
KNOT SHEAR WITH AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. CIMMS
INDICATES DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR TO THE SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED IN THE EQUATORWARD JET ENTRANCE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT, FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. HETTIE IS EXPECTED TO
CURVE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
BEYOND 36 HOURS, HETTIE IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON A WESTERLY TRACK DUE
TO A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR FURTHER
DOWN HETTIE'S FORECAST TRACK IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE NOT CAPTURED THE INTENSIFICATION OF HETTIE BUT GENERALLY
AGREE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 23.4S 178.3W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 24.1S 179.2W MOV SW AT 07 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 24.8S 179.5E MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC 24.9S 178.6E MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HETTIE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 282030 UTC.