Florida Weather

[jinftl]

NWS Melbourne

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FRI NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AND THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS THE 850 MB FREEZING LINE GETTING DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA (WHICH IS NOT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AS IT GOT DURING LAST
WEEKS COLD EVENT). THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT FUTURE
MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH THE HIGH CENTER STAYING FARTHER NORTH...THIS
COLD SNAP DOES NOT LOOK LIKE NEARLY THE CREATURE THAT HIT US
RECENTLY.
SAT-TUE (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SFC HIGH WILL BUILD TWD THE FL
PANHANDLE SAT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING DOWN THE STATE. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 30S AND HIGHS AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID
60S SOUTH. A QUICK RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED SUN/MON AS
HIGH CENTER ELONGATES AND PUSHES EAST INTO THE ATLC. 00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TWD
FL BY TUE SO WILL BEING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEW DAY7
FCST AND INTRODUCE A LOW POP. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TWD
SEASONAL LEVELS LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S AND HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LWR 70S

[JonathanBelles]

If I could have ordered my favorite warm weather, today would have been it. Never too hot, and it was just a little cool for the ride home. Scattered to no clouds, sun not too hot, a little wind. Not too humid either. Great Day in Tampa Bay!

[JonathanBelles]

: SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook

...MID-ATLANTIC TO FL...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EPISODIC THUNDER INVOF FRONTAL ZONE FROM
TIDEWATER AREA ACROSS GA...IN REGIME OF STG LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR. HOWEVER CONCERNS OVER INSTABILITY PRECLUDE SVR PROBABILITIES
ATTM. NRN EXTENT OF NEARLY SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS IS EXPECTED TO
CORRESPOND CLOSELY WITH POSITION OF SRN WARM FRONT THROUGH PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ABOVE SFC ARE FCST TO BE QUITE WEAK...LIMITING
DEPTH OF BUOYANT LAYER TO BELOW FAVORABLE ICING LAYER FOR LIGHTNING
IN MANY AREAS. FRONTAL FORCING MAY COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF BUOYANT
LIFT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDER WITHIN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
29/03Z FROM SRN DELMARVA REGION SSWWD ACROSS GA. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
SUPPORTING SVR...AND PROBABILITIES MAY BE INTRODUCED LATER FOR SOME
PORTION OF CAROLINAS/SER VA REGION...IF SIGNALS APPEAR THAT NEAR-SFC
THETAE WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.

MOST PROGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT --
AND PERHAPS N OF IMMEDIATE SFC BOUNDARY -- TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
SECONDARY CONVECTIVE BAND LATE IN PERIOD FROM NERN GULF ACROSS NRN
FL AND SERN GA. THIS ACTIVITY -- OCCURRING IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT TO LFC WITH MUCAPE UP TO 300 J/KG -- SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED...ATOP EITHER POSTFRONTAL CAA REGIME OR PREFRONTAL DIABATIC
COOLING LAYER NEAR SFC.

Can somebody translate that last paragraph from NWS to English?

[jasons2k]

Basically, it means there should be sufficient instability with the front for some thunderstorms, and there may be enough instability left over for a secondary line of elevated storms behind the front as well.

[JonathanBelles]

interesting AFD tonight...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
142 AM EST WED JAN 28 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY FOLLOWED
BY 36-48 HOURS OF CLOUDY AND RAINY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK THEN
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS MORNING TO
MOVE EWARD THRU THE DAY AS SFC STORM SYSTEM REMAINS STRETCHED THRU
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SFC RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO MOVE S AND E OF THE AREA WHILE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE AREA LEFT BEHIND BY UPPER SUPPORT. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY
TODAY WITH ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
NATURE COAST LATE.

TONIGHT...SMALL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PVA FIELD TO MOVE OVER
THE N GULF COAST REGION IN OVERALL U.S. TROUGHINESS. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PUSH SFC FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER S INTO THE N FL
PENINSULA AND NE GULF AND PRODUCE INCREASING POPS FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NWARD OVERNIGHT. ALL MODELS COMING IN LINE WITH WET
SOLUTIONS SO HAVE INCREASE POPS AS WELL.

THU...FRONT AGAIN GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE AREA AS UPPER SUPPORT
LIFTS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WRAPS INTO THE REGION CONTINUING
DEEP MOISTURE AND SW FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL LIFT FOR
LIKELY POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE BAY AREA NWARD. FURTHER S
POPS HOLD IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS.

THU NT...FRONT NUDGES SLIGHTLY SWARD AND HAVE TWEAKED LIKELY POPS
AROUND FRONTAL ZONE. LAST POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MISS RV
VALLEY TO FILTER COOLER HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

FRI...SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX TO FINALLY PUSH COLD
FRONT/MOISTURE/POPS SWARD THRU THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCE POPS FROM
THE BAY AREA SWARD EARLY THIS CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT COOL NORTHERN ROCKIES HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA PRODUCING AFTERNOON TEMPS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH
AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND MID 60S S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...BASICALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS
REGARDING THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE FINALLY SETTLED IN A BIT AND PAINT A
POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND FORT MYERS FRIDAY
EVENING...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING AND MUCH COOLER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIR AND RATHER COOL. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST...AND MAYBE ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES
AS WELL. I CONTINUE TO STAY A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT ALSO BROUGHT 32 DEGREES DOWN THROUGH THE NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS OF OUR CENTRAL ZONES. SATURDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH
NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S FAR SOUTH. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS IFFY. THE GFS WOULD BRING
STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT GULF LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF...THEN
DRAG ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING AND COLDER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF JUST BRINGS A
WEAKER COLD FRONT TO THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY...WITHOUT ALL THE
FANFARE OF THE GULF LOW. SINCE WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DAYS 6 AND 7...
I WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND JUST INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

[dizzyfish]

Yep. Time for yo-yo weather again. It was nice to thaw out some the last few days. But on the bright side - maybe we will get some much needed rain. Very, very brown and crunchy by me.

BTW - Would someone up in north Florida please close the freezer door?

[frankthetank]

NWS Miami has it getting down to 44F. Ouchy

Dewpoint in Miami up to 68F! Temp already in the mid 70s... Couple days of 80s and then its game over.



Hopefully you guys can get some rain. I can't believe how dirty the rental car i had was when i took it back. After a week it had a layer of grime...

[jinftl]

Very warm night last night...prelim low temp in both Miami & Fort Lauderdale was 70 deg. At 10 am, up to 77 in Fort L and 76 in Miami...and a bit muggy with dewpts in the mid-60s. Very different feeling airmass than last week....ran a/c last night.

NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 9:54 am EST Jan 28, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today: Sunny, with a high near 81.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 63.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 5.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70.

[frankthetank]

6Z GFS pumping out ANOTHER 43F for early Feb! Ugly ugly ugly. Will be watching the 12z to see what changes come.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KMIA

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12Z GFS has 0 Degree line south of the keys...tues-weds...

[frankthetank]

12Z came in even uglier. Has one day not make it out of the 50's. Too early to jump to conclusions, but it has happened once, and things like to repeat... Hey...its almost noon here and its 4F

[jinftl]

Lowest temp ever recorded in Key West is 41 deg. Whether celsius or fahrenheit, 0 deg south of the Keys is bold at best....funny at most.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml

12Z GFS has 0 Degree line south of the keys...tues-weds...

[vbhoutex]

Lowest temp ever recorded in Key West is 41 deg. Whether celsius or fahrenheit, 0 deg south of the Keys is bold at best....funny at most.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml

12Z GFS has 0 Degree line south of the keys...tues-weds...

that is the 850 mb 0º line. Surface temps in the keys show at around 52ºf.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We should see rain tomorrow. I don't know if we will see the severe weather
outbreak tomorrow like we had about a week and a half ago...that was a
powerful line...the dynamics don't appear, at this time to support severe
weather.

[JonathanBelles]

We didnt see that line build until a few hours before it got here, but I also dont think that will happen again.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Especially with the overruning precipitation, it will tend to keep the
atmosphere more stable throughout the day tomorrow...so good
to see rain finally, without the severe weather which is a good thing

[frankthetank]

Before you guys start crying, i was looking through the last 30 years of records for Miami Beach and Dec 24, 1989 should bring chills to your South Beach bodies. High temp for that day was 44F, low temp 32F ... warmed up to 55F on Christmas, with a low of 33F that day.

[boca]

Before you guys start crying, i was looking through the last 30 years of records for Miami Beach and Dec 24, 1989 should bring chills to your South Beach bodies. High temp for that day was 44F, low temp 32F ... warmed up to 55F on Christmas, with a low of 33F that day.

Frankthetank, where did you find the info on the highs and lows for the 1989 Florida cold event. I've been looking for awhile regarding this event. Can you post a link.

[frankthetank]

Boca-
Sent you a PM...

Looking ugly guys. UGLY. Euro:




Not sure what to say, other then.......brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr I hate to see those beautiful tropical plants take such a beating

[HURAKAN]