Florida Weather

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Special Weather Statement

FREEZE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
611 AM EST THU JAN 29 2009
FLZ063-066-067-070-071-073-292200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...IMMOKALEE...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...MARKHAM PARK...HOMESTEAD...
FLORIDA CITY...REDLAND...MICCOSUKEE RESORT...KENDALE LAKES...
WEST KENDALL...COUNTRY WALK...SHARK VALLEY

611 AM EST THU JAN 29 2009
...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS...
...LOW WIND CHILL READINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD AIRMASS PUSHING DOWN THE PENINSULA
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE FREEZING MARK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME. PEOPLE SHOULD
ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...AS TEMPERATURES BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS
CAN STILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS THAN 10 MPH BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER THIS MAY STILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

[gatorcane]

This is quite a trough the ECMWF is carving out for the East Coast of the US at 144 hours.

This *could* rival the Jan. 22nd freeze across Florida.

Here we go again....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9012900!!/

[jinftl]

From NWS Miami this morning...record warmth today possible followed by the front (which sadly doesn't appear to want to start to make a dent in rainfall deficit)...

SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH FCST MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 80S.
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 29

MIA: 84
FLL:86
PBI: 85

BUT IF YOU THINK THIS IS TOO WARM FOR JANUARY, ALL OF THIS IS A
PRELUDE TO SOME MAJOR CHANGES COMING BY THIS WEEKEND. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH FRIDAY AND AS THIS
HAPPENS, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH SOUTHWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS S FLA EARLY FRIDAY. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION NEAR LAKE OKEE LATE TONIGHT
AND OVER ALL OF S FLA EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THERE
MIGHT BE A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL, IT WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED
AND ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY CONSEQUENCE ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THE SE CST BY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AND A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN IN SHOWING
MID 30S FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW QUITE LOW 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW CLOSE TO FREEZING IT MIGHT GET.
THEREFORE, A FREEZE OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA BUT A
FREEZE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE
ONLY THING CERTAIN IS THIS IS NOT AS COLD OF AN AIRMASS AS LAST
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR
THIS SMALL AREA. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF S FLA, MINIMUMS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S REMAINDER OF INTERIOR
PORTIONS AND LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG BOTH COASTS.

THE SFC RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AND IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WITH THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, WIND JUST ABOVE THE SFC WILL VEER
TO THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF NOT QUITE AS
DEEP WITH THE TROUGH. STILL, EXPECT MUCH COOLER WEATHER AGAIN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

The 12zGFS has the 850 0 line ging thru the upper Keys at 138hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138m.gif

The time frame I'm interested in is Feb13th in which a east coast storm is forecast to develop which could make Florida's weather quite cold especially that their forecasting the NAO to go negative.

[frankthetank]

GFS pumps out a bunch of precip for Miami... Something that could be good, but i doubt happens...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KMIA

[jinftl]

That would be great...less than 1" of rain the last 3 months in Fort Lauderdale is just outright nuts!

Looks like the GFS data in current run is a bit warmer overall than yesterday's in terms of minimum temp in the run period (up to 45 deg from 43 deg yesterday) and overall temps as well (bumped up a bit).


On flip side, closing in on record highs for the day...
MIA: Record high: 84, 1pm temp: 83 (heat index: 86)
FLL: Record high: 86, 1pm temp: 84 (heat index: 86)
PBI: Record high: 85, 1pm temp: 84 (heat index: 85)

GFS pumps out a bunch of precip for Miami... Something that could be good, but i doubt happens...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KMIA

[HURAKAN]

So far today the high in my house has been 85.5ºF and the heat index 89.0ºF.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami has bumped low temps expected this weekend up a few degrees from earlier forecast...from low to mid-40's in metro areas to mid to upper 40's on Friday night and and from upper 40's now into the 50s for Saturday night with NE wind flow. If this verifies, this would put this cold snap about 6 or 7 deg warmer in terms of lowest high temp and lowest low temps experienced than last weeks cold weather (where lowest high in Miami was 57, and lowest low was 42).


NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 12:53 pm EST Jan 29, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 64.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. East wind between 11 and 13 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind between 6 and 9 mph.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=25.74918791309335&lon=-80.22354125976562&site=mfl&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en&TextType=1

[jinftl]

Temp up to 87.6F in Coral Springs (NW Broward, suburb of Fort Lauderdale)

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLCORAL15

[boca]

I'm at 87.2°F as of 1:42pm in Boca Raton. My car registered 87 also which I thought was a mistake till I got home and saw the home reading.

[jinftl]

Hardly a cloud in the sky right now in south fla....who says you can't hit the beach in January! Current webcam pic from Jupiter Inlet (Palm Beach county...as of 2:45 pm, folks in beach, a few in ocean).



Up to 89.1 deg in Coral Springs!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLCORAL15


Ocean temps not too low off the se coast of fl now...even during last week's extended cold spell, didn't drop below 70 deg for the ocean temp off miami.

[Scorpion]

It's just raining here steadily with a temp around 70

[jinftl]

NWS Miami has bumped up temps a bit once again with latest forecast (only a degree, but that is after the 2 degree bump earlier today for friday night's low temp).

NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 4:52 pm EST Jan 29, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers after 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Increasing clouds, with a high near 74.
Friday Night: Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 65.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. .
Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75.
Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 68.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=25.752898642900437&lon=-80.211181640625&site=mfl&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en&TextType=1

NWS Miami has bumped low temps expected this weekend up a few degrees from earlier forecast...from low to mid-40's in metro areas to mid to upper 40's on Friday night and and from upper 40's now into the 50s for Saturday night with NE wind flow. If this verifies, this would put this cold snap about 6 or 7 deg warmer in terms of lowest high temp and lowest low temps experienced than last weeks cold weather (where lowest high in Miami was 57, and lowest low was 42).


NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 12:53 pm EST Jan 29, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 64.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. East wind between 11 and 13 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind between 6 and 9 mph.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=25.74918791309335&lon=-80.22354125976562&site=mfl&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en&TextType=1

[jinftl]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE
435 PM EST THU JAN 29 2009

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ORLANDO...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT ORLANDO TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 84 SET IN 1957.

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MELBOURNE...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT MELBOURNE TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1972.

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT VERO BEACH...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT VERO BEACH
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1994.


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
423 PM EST THU JAN 29 2009

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MIAMI...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84 DEGREES WAS SET AT MIAMI TODAY. THIS
TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 84 SET IN 1991.

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WEST PALM BEACH...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT WEST PALM BEACH
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1991.

[Scorpion]

It was 85 today? Sure didn't feel like it. Felt warmer yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

[frankthetank]

I went one week too early! Argh! We had 18F today... I would just swim out into the gulf stream, temps are 76F out there, take my little inflatable raft with and take a nap... Couple of days later i could be in Ireland.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF continues to show a monster East Coast Trough for 120-168 hour timeframe. This should bring freezing temps all the way down into interior South Florida again at least, if it verifies:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9012912!!/

Here is the 18Z GFS: