The models are agressive with a wave at east atlantic

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 25, 2003 7:01 pm

As we enter the cape verde season things will begin to pop up in the atlantic.But there is something that we have to watch and that is how much SAL there will be in the atlantic in the next 2 months during the heart of the season.Also a question is if the models GFS and NOGAPS take into account the SAL factor when they make their runs?

OtherHD · #2 Postby **OtherHD** » Fri Jul 25, 2003 7:57 pm

Which models are you referring to?

chadtm80 · #3 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jul 25, 2003 8:25 pm

I cant speak for him HD, but i knoq noGAPS AND GFS hAVE grabbed a hold of it

Steve H. · #4 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 7:26 am

0z GFS seems to like this wave and develops it into an impressive system at about 40W. Things aren't terribly dry out there at all levels. Notice no burnt oranges on the WV and moisture is moving back north some. Think this thing might have a good chance when it gets out to 35W. Otherwise, ULL flaring up convection noth of Puerto Rico. Development unlikely but worth watching. Cheers!!

Toni - 574 · #5 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 8:54 am

Took a quick glance at the GFS and it sure does seem to like the wave. Carries it across the Atlantic. Should get interesting soon. Lot's of wave trains in the next week or so... 8-)

Nice break right now!

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 2:56 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Right now wave looks more convective emerging africa but let's see when it gets more west if it gets ideal conditions.

GulfBreezer · #7 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 3:20 pm

I have to agree with Toni that this is a nice break! While I still check every sat. image I can, I still am enjoying the lull............gearing up for August and September! I feel like this will also be a season where we will see storms all the way through November!!

#8 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 4:04 pm

I can't see what wave you are talking about. I just checked the 12Z GFS and NOGAPS and neither develops anything out there. Both indicate a pocket of moisture around 40W, but that's about it. I won't complain about a break, though. Managed to take Thursday-Sunday off this week. My first weekend off since the third week of May.

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 4:06 pm

I don't see anything either. There is no surface reflection at all picked up by the models

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 26, 2003 4:18 pm

Well then they dropped it at the last run at 12z.

The models are agressive with a wave at east atlantic

The models are agressive with a wave at east atlantic

Hmm..

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