New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible

[cycloneye]

Bad news for those who want the warming to stop.

New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible

A new scientific study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reaches a powerful conclusion about the climate change caused by future increases of carbon dioxide: to a large extent, there’s no going back.

The pioneering study, led by NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon, shows how changes in surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level are largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are completely stopped. The findings appear during the week of January 26 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“Our study convinced us that current choices regarding carbon dioxide emissions will have legacies that will irreversibly change the planet,” said Solomon, who is based at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

“It has long been known that some of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years,” Solomon said. “But the new study advances the understanding of how this affects the climate system.”

The study examines the consequences of allowing CO2 to build up to several different peak levels beyond present-day concentrations of 385 parts per million and then completely halting the emissions after the peak. The authors found that the scientific evidence is strong enough to quantify some irreversible climate impacts, including rainfall changes in certain key regions, and global sea level rise.

If CO2 is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts per million, the results would include persistent decreases in dry-season rainfall that are comparable to the 1930s North American Dust Bowl in zones including southern Europe, northern Africa, southwestern North America, southern Africa and western Australia.

The study notes that decreases in rainfall that last not just for a few decades but over centuries are expected to have a range of impacts that differ by region. Such regional impacts include decreasing human water supplies, increased fire frequency, ecosystem change and expanded deserts. Dry-season wheat and maize agriculture in regions of rain-fed farming, such as Africa, would also be affected.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... imate.html

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

May be time for people to consider planning the size of their families.

It will be interesting (not) to see how we are going to feed the planet when so many food growing areas are going to be affected. BTW the dust bowl also reached well up into the northern plains (my province was pretty well abandoned during the 30's).....I have my doubts we will be growing much if that comes back again.

[MGC]

The growing season will be longer in Canada. Increased crop yields will result in lower food costs, families will be able to afford another mouth to feed. All is good....MGC

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Yep I've read that too MGC and that will be great if we get rain (and snow) but if that doesn't happen we won't be in any better shape then Texas. The recent warm winters here have only brought lots of snow to the northern half of Saskatchewan. That area is Boreal Forest and crops don't grow well on Precambrian rock http://www.flickr.com/photos/22450970@N07/2300009779/ unfortunately.

We've also been exceptionally dry and some areas just below my location are also in extreme drought conditions http://www.flickr.com/photos/22450970@N07/2170176563/ (I'm not sure about this year however.....La Nina brought us more snow than what's been the norm lately but I'm positive its still not enough). If La Nina conditions continue year after year our moisture levels will improve dramatically however (that definitely won't be good news for Texas). Last spring the rains came late and our crops were a month late germinating (the prior fall had been dry and we had just trace amounts of snow over the winter) and that of course meant many didn't ripen prior to freeze up. We don't irrigate much here... we have very few rivers, in the grain growing region, and our glaciers that supply water are disappearing just like the American ones are.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Here's what our Government released back in the 90's

The changes we can expect on the northern prairies: http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/poste ... r_03_e.php

Our melting glaciers: http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/poste ... r_04_e.php

Our water resources: http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/poste ... r_05_e.php

Changing vegetation: http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/poste ... r_06_e.php

Extreme weather: http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/poste ... r_07_e.php
Much of the above we are already seeing....hard rain/hail/tornadoes don't help crops either.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/22450970@N07/2249278566/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/22450970@N07/2248485311/

if weather returns to more normal patterns great but if it continues....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Global Warming is melting glaciers world wide. We are in big trouble in my
opinion based on my 21 years of life experience knowledge.
In August of 2007, the air temperature where I live hit 101*F, with a heat index
of 124*F, I don't know if that is a record, but it is very hot for Florida during
the summer.

Also, we are having huge climate weather extremes- from record freezes
to record heat- Tampa Vandenburg was down to 24*F!!! AND ONE week later RECORD HEAT Slammed South Florida with temperatures of 87*F in south Florida
and around 84*F in central Florida a week later- both events broke records in
florida- many that are years old...century old...
To put this in perspective this is a marine area (florida is surrounded on 3 sides by water) that saw records shattered in terms of extremes!!!
For a desert that would be like -30*F one week and 90*F the next week...


I have never before experienced such extremes from summer to winter in florida in my 15 years here...think
about that, 24*F in the winter...124*F heat index in August...somethings going on!!! That was a wunderground
weather station that is normally pretty accurate that recorded that heat...


Also Alaska had record shattering -70*F with wind chills likely -100*F one week and the next week had all time
record highs of 52*F, just in the past 2 months!!!!

PROOF: http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html
Max: 84*F
Min: 24*F
FOR TAMPA
that's pretty extreme...

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I believe you re that humidity Tampa Bay........ my location in July of that year broke all its previous humidex (heat and dew point) records when we hit 48 degree Celsius = 118.4 degree Fahrenheit (we started off at the beginning of the month with unusual humidity that just kept increasing as the days went by and it didn't end until the end of the month when the Jet Stream finally took it away). At that time I was posting at an American gardening site and the Floridians joked that they got the humidity from my area (who'd a thunk?) That same month a little town in Manitoba broke the all time Canadian humidex record:

"The humidex is a measurement used by Canadian meteorologists to reflect the combined effect of heat and humidity. It differs from the heat index used in the United States in using dew point rather than relative humidity. According to the Meteorological Service of Canada, a humidex of at least 40 causes "great discomfort" and above 45 is "dangerous." When the humidex hits 54, heat stroke is imminent.

The current formula for determining the humidex was developed by J.M. Masterton and F.A. Richardson of Canada's Atmospheric Environment Service in 1979. The term is widely used in Canada during the summer months in weather reports.

The record humidex in Canada occurred on July 25, 2007, when Carman, Manitoba hit 53.Celsius[1]53 degree Celsius = 127.4 degree Fahrenheit This breaks the previous record of 52.1 set in 1953 in Windsor, Ontario (The residents of Windsor would not have known this at the time, since the humidex had yet to be invented)."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humidex

Manitoba did get a break that summer however.....the heat and humidity stayed stuck over Alberta and Saskatchewan and it didn't move into Manitoba until the end of the month (just before it dropped back down into the States).

When it's hot the northern plains are better known to be hot and "dry as dust" in the summer (rather than hot with "jungle like humidity"). Our hot days also usually comes in August rather than at the beginning of July.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WOW!!!!!! 127*F humidity index in Canada!!!!! Insane!!!!!!!!!!
Wow...that is pretty scary global warming wise...this continent could
be a blazing furnace in the decades to come...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... h=8&day=17
August 17, 2008: Temperature: 105*F in Pinellas Park...a few miles inland from
where I live...humidity was 41%, dew point 76.6*F...Humidex: 126*F

Ignore the 105 reading it is wrong.

The more correct reading was a 100*F with HI of 120+

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Now I am not saying we should cut emissions due to global warming-
cutting emissions would at this time probably make the economy crash...
So the best thing is to just adapt to hotter summers until
we one day find effective, efficient large-scale technology
that is run by solar or water power alone...

[Sanibel]

Studies have shown development of global warming infrastructure and technology would actually spur the economy.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

In that case we should definitely have a large scale solar/electric car marketing
and the same thing with factories.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

No idea here how much is "natural" and how much man has influenced but I'm more than a little suspicious that it's a combination of the two.

Tampa Bay here's a blog posting you might find interesting : http://fracas.wordpress.com/2007/07/23/ ... a-monster/ (we most definitely weren't happy campers that summer ). It just seems so unfair that we can face winters in the -50's (won't even talk about windchill) and a few months later have to survive Japanese steam bath torture (I know every time we went to the grocery store I seriously eyed crawling into one of their open freezers).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I can say that this summer you should prepare for similar extreme heat- Australia
is shattering heat records...I wouldn't be surprised if you saw 115*F humidex
values...and here in florida...even at night in July of 2008 it was 87*F with
heat index of 109*F...this was at 1 AM

Right now it is frigid: 44*F is the temperature wind chill outside- the
average is 30 degrees warmer...we are -30 below normal...but we are having
huge temperature swings...this weekend it will be in the 80s...

The impact of human-Made global warming will likely prove dangerous...

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Tampa Bay I'm praying you are wrong (but I will keep an eye open to see if La Nina will still be influencing our weather.......if it is still around this summer we will be much cooler but if El Nino forms we are going to look a lot like broiled Lobsters here). If I get even a hint we are going to be that warm again I can guarantee that at least a window A/C, for our bedroom, will be in my hot little hands before days end. I have my doubts we slept for more than 2 hours a night for more nights than I care to remember.

What is really shocking about the blog link that I posted above was that the person who posts there lives in Saskatoon, SK, which is about 2 hours north of my location and it is located in the Parkland and tends to have much, much cooler summers than where I live. She hit 115 and my location hit 118.

If La Nina sticks around I will be thinking of you folks down near the Gulf because, like you, I'm pretty sure it will be a steam bath there.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***ERROR REPORT****

WOW!!!!!! 127*F humidity index in Canada!!!!! Insane!!!!!!!!!!
Wow...that is pretty scary global warming wise...this continent could
be a blazing furnace in the decades to come...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... h=8&day=17
August 17, 2008: Temperature: 105*F in Pinellas Park...a few miles inland from
where I live...humidity was 41%, dew point 76.6*F...Humidex: 126*F

Ignore the 105 reading it is wrong.

The more correct reading was a 100*F with HI of 120+

Ignore 105 reading. 100 was more accurate:


There was a station near kenneth city or pinellas park that hit 100 or 101 that summer,
and it was that day that the heat index soared....105 is incorrect...but I am trying to find
the station that had 100/101 in kenneth city/pinellas park...that was what I was referring
to but when searching for the proof found a station that was too hot


Edit: here it is....about 100-101:
Look at these personal weather station heat indices:
Pinellas Park, FL
Temperature Dew Point Humidity Wind Pressure Hourly Precipitation Heat Index Updated Mode
100.7 °F / 38 °C 80 °F / 27 °C 52% WNW at 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
29.78 in / 1008.4 hPa 0.00 in / 0 mm 124 °F / 51 °C 1 sec ago Rapid Fire
Historical Data & Charts — Set as Default Current Conditions
RAD Weather, St. Petersburg, FL
Temperature Dew Point Humidity Wind Pressure Hourly Precipitation Heat Index Updated Mode
97.1 °F / 36 °C 81 °F / 27 °C 59% SSW at 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h / 0.0 m/s
29.91 in / 1012.8 hPa 0.00 in / 0 mm 120 °F / 49 °C
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=95455&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=220

August 9, 2007

Edit: Found the station:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2007