ULL east of south florida

[chadtm80]

Just an ULL, but other than the CV wave its the most interesting feature out there

I know it dosent happen often but it does happen... Didnt danny start out as ULL?? In any case its something to keep an eye on



http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_29/anis.html

[wxman57]

No, Danny began as a large low pressure area that moved off the coast of Africa around 15N. It was a broad swirl of stratocumulus void of deep convection for a few days then it tightened up.

Taking a look at a WV loop, the upper level low is near 20N/73W, so the convection is 150 miles or so east of the upper low center. Such upper-level lows <b>can</b> "spin down" and turn tropical over such warm water, but this one is kind of close to the TUTT so tropical development may be a bit less likely with time. Still, it's something to watch.

[chadtm80]

K, Thanks

[Toni - 574]

The convection still looks impressive being so close to the ULL. Just remember the storm season we are in! It's been full of suprises so far...

[jabber]

These upper lows can move down to the surface but it can take days. If its still has some pretty good convection this time on Sunday we might have something to watch.

[chadtm80]

I agree... Something to watch and the convection would have to persist consistantly for it to have a chance..

I will be watching

[Steve Cosby]

Bastardi is calling for it to work down to the surface as it works westward and into the Bahamas. He's worried about it stalling and churning right off the southeastern tip of Florida. This was from a 2:15PM eastern Tropical Outlook update.

[ameriwx2003]

Yea.. I just saw that myself about Bastardi saying that. Lets see if the Thunderstorms can persist and expand the next 24 hours. At least we have something to watch. Most years at this time the arguments are flying the season is behind schedule:):):)

[chadtm80]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

[cycloneye]

Hummmm the tropical weather outlook is mentioning it already and that sounds interesting what they say.

[chadtm80]

Yep seems like everyone has taken note of it...

[southerngale]

Hmmmm....maybe something will develop after all.

[Toni - 574]

I've been in and out all day and have caught about 3 tropical updates from TWC today. They talked all around the ULL and did not even mention it. Thought that was kinda odd. As big of a swirl as it is you would think they would at least point it out and explain what it is. Maybe they did at other times and I just did not catch it. Again, just a little odd.

[ameriwx2003]

Miami AFD talks about the ULL .

FXUS62 KMFL 261839 CCA
AFDMIA

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI
235 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2003

.CURRENTLY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR ATLC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY DOWN WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION
INDICATED BY THE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. LARGE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING WEST TO NRN GULF OF MEX.

.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WX CONDITIONS WILL BASICALLY REMAIN
THE SAME WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA AND
EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER S. FL. SO WILL EXPECT TO SEE MORNING/LATE
NIGHT ACTIVITY OVER EAST COAST AND SCT SHWRS/TSTMS OVR INTERIOR/WEST
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WX CONDITIONS COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH...MOVES
WESTWARD OVER S. FL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ETA EVEN DEVELOPS A SFC LOW ON
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS ACTUALLY NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY...BUT FOR THE
MOMENT WILL GO CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP AN OPEN TROUGH.
LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEA BREEZES ALSO
PLAYING A BIG ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF SHWRS AND
STORMS. WILL KEEP A SCT POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE ALL
AREAS BOTH MON AND TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
MID/UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN WEST OF S. FL OVER THE GULF OF MEX WITH
GFS NO LONGER INDICATING A SFC REFLECTION. ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILT
BACK WEST OVER THE PENINSULA WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATING AGAIN
OVER INTERIOR AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND OVER EAST COAST
DURING THE EVENINGS.

.MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS AS WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.FIRE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS AS CRITERIA WELL BELOW ANY THRESHOLDS.

PBI BT 077/089 077/090 078 12253
FLL BT 078/089 078/090 079 12253
MIA BT 078/089 079/090 079 12253
APF TT 075/090 075/090 075 25353

.MIA...NONE.

$$

GARCIA

[Rainband]

Will be interesting to see what happens!!!

[Derek Ortt]

What a surprise, Bastardi is fear mongering again


The absolute most that this can do is become a weak tropical storm before reaching Florida. According to the morning QS, there was no low level turning. However, this feature was on the edge of the pass; therefore, it was inconclusive. Just hoping the descending pass doesn't miss this system

[Rainband]

What a surprise, Bastardi is fear mongering again


The absolute most that this can do is become a weak tropical storm before reaching Florida. According to the morning QS, there was no low level turning. However, this feature was on the edge of the pass; therefore, it was inconclusive. Just hoping the descending pass doesn't miss this system

This year has stumped us all before..I wouldn't be shocked if a few more surprises were around the bend???? :? :?

[Lindaloo]

It could also stall and strengthen. I am with you Rainband... anything is possible this season.

[chadtm80]

Convection craping out at this hour

[ColdFront77]

The National Hurricane Center is giving this system potential for tropical development. The Weather Channel sure should of mentioned something about it all day long, if they didn't (on Saturday).