NW Australia: FREDDY - Tropical Cyclone : Discussion

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 11:35 am WDT on Tuesday, 3 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Kalumburu to Broome.

At 9:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
455 kilometres east northeast of Broome and
200 kilometres south southwest of Kalumburu and
was moving slowly westwards.

The low is expected to move off the west Kimberley coast by Wednesday morning
and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west
away from the coast. Gales are not expected on the coast during Tuesday or
Wednesday but may develop during Thursday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 126.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 50 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slowly westwards
.Wind gusts near centre... 65 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.Communities between Kalumburu and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Tuesday 03 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 3:40 pm WDT on Tuesday, 3 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Broome.

At 3:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
440 kilometres northeast of Broome and
190 kilometres southwest of Kalumburu and
was moving west northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to move off the west Kimberley coast by Wednesday morning
and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west
away from the coast. Gales are not expected on the coast during Tuesday or
Wednesday but may develop during Thursday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 125.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Kalumburu and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Tuesday 03 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 10:05 pm WDT on Tuesday, 3 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Broome.

At 9:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
425 kilometres northeast of Broome and
195 kilometres southwest of Kalumburu and
was moving northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to move off the west Kimberley coast by Wednesday morning
and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west
away from the coast. Gales are not expected on the coast tonight or Wednesday
but may develop during Thursday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.4 degrees South 125.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Kalumburu and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Wednesday 04 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Tuesday the 3rd of February 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

Cyclone advices are current for a developing tropical low, please refer to the
latest advice. Full details available from Bureau of Meteorology
Ph 1300 659 210 or visit http://www.bom.gov.au

No other significant lows are expected within the next three days.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the outlook region in the
next three days is:
Wednesday : Low
Thursday : High
Friday : High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 3:45 am WDT on Wednesday, 4 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Broome.

At 3:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
375 kilometres northeast of Broome and
280 kilometres west southwest of Kalumburu and
was moving west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

The low has moved off the west Kimberley coast this morning, and may develop
into a tropical cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move west away from the
coast. Gales are not expected on the coast Wednesday, but may develop during
Thursday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.2 degrees South 124.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Kalumburu and Broome should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Wednesday 04 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.4S 125.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEPENING CONVECTION THAT IS
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORMED
ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, OFF-SHORE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 9:55 am WDT on Wednesday, 4 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

The Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Kalumburu
to Broome has been cancelled.

At 9:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
255 kilometres north of Broome and
650 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
was moving west at 13 kilometres per hour.

The low has moved off the west Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical
cyclone on Thursday as it continues to move westwards, away from the coast.
Gales are not expected to affect coastal areas over the next few days.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 122.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves towards the
coast.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
125.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)HAS
MOVED WEST OFFSHORE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST AND
FULLY DETACHED FROM THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, OFF-SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

BoM having problems lately with their development forecast. They under-forecasted, to say the least, the development of Dominic and Ellie, and they have over-forecasted the development of this system. They expected a tropical cyclone to develop right after the low left land but didn't take into account the strong shear.

[Crostorm]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
118.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 116.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED MOVING IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION. A
050951Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL BANDING BEGINING TO FORM
NEAR THE ELONGATED LLCC. THE LLCC IS FURTHER CONFIRMED BY A 051023Z
QSCAT PASS WHICH DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 30
KNOT WINDS AT THE CENTER. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH THE MAJORITY OF STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE WHERE IT IS BEING SHEARED TO
THE WEST. DESPITE THIS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE CONSOLIDATING
LLCC AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROVIDING A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED LLCC AND WARM
SST'S, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Thursday the 5th of February 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

A tropical low was situated well north of the Pilbara coast near 15.9S 118.2E at
9am WDT Thursday. Please refer to latest Information Bulletin [IDW24000]. The
low is expected to move towards the west and may develop into a tropical cyclone
late on Friday or on Saturday. This system is moving steadily west and should
move west of 110E during Sunday, or possibly late on Saturday.

No other significant lows are expected within the next three days.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the outlook region in the
next three days is:
Friday : High
Saturday : High
Sunday : High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1830UTC 5 FEBRUARY 2009

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal six south (16.6S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal zero east (116.0E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre in western quadrants.

FORECAST
From 1800 UTC 5 February winds 25/35 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre
in western quadrants with rough seas and low to moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 06 February: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.9 south 114.8 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 06 February: Within 105 nautical miles of 16.9 south 113.4 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0000 UTC 06 February 2009.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
116.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 116.1E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 051434Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS
AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC DUE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH
FAVORABLE SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS WELL AS A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO LOWER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS LEADING TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[Crostorm]

WTXS21 PGTW 060130
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S 115.0E TO 16.1S 110.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 060100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 114.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
116.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION DESPITE MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 052257Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONV-
ECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM SST, AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

[Chacor]

AXAU01 APRF 060116
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0115 UTC 06/02/2009
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 114.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [266 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 06/1200: 16.3S 113.6E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 993
+24: 07/0000: 15.9S 112.2E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 988
+36: 07/1200: 15.8S 111.3E: 120 [225]: 045 [085]: 984
+48: 08/0000: 15.9S 109.9E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 985
+60: 08/1200: 16.4S 108.2E: 200 [375]: 045 [085]: 985
+72: 09/0000: 16.9S 106.0E: 250 [465]: 045 [085]: 985
REMARKS:
System organisation has improved significantly over the last 24 hours. If low
level circulation is considered to be well defined [parallel, circularly curved
LLCLs] then it is possible to assign a high DT [2.5-3.0], however it is
questionable whether the LLCC is sufficiently well defined and the FT should be
limited to T2.0 in any case given previous analysis history.

The system continues to struggle against shear and those conditions are not
expected to change. So a slow rate of development with intensity capped below
hurricane force throughout its lifetime is forecast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0055UTC 6 FEBRUARY 2009

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal four south (16.4S)
longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal nine east (114.9E)
Recent movement : west at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles of the centre in eastern quadrants extending to within
120 nautical miles of the centre in western quadrants.

FORECAST
Winds 20/30 knots with rough seas and low to moderate swell. Winds reaching 35
knots at times in western quadrants from 0000 UTC 6 February and reaching 40
knots in all quadrants by 0000 UTC 7 February.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 06 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 16.3 south 113.6 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 07 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 15.9 south 112.2 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 06 February 2009.

WEATHER PERTH