WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 61.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 61.0E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.1S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.5S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 60.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 040326Z SSMIS PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC 13S HAS MOVED CLOSER TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SLOWLY
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THIS GENERAL TRACK
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48. DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE ACROSS VERY WARM WATER WILL FUEL INTENSI-
FICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, PARTICULARY BEYOND TAU 12.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.//
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