2008 TCRs

[margiek]

As of last week, Bill Read commented (at AMS meeting in Phoenix) that they were reviewing that observation to determine whether to recognize it as an accurate report. Eyewall ,mesovortices can produce extreme wind gusts, as was indicated by that dropsonde report of around 238 mph in Isabel in 2003. And it's also possible that the 212 mph gust occurred in a tornado. That wouldn't make Gustav a Cat 5, though.

Just wanted to mention that I saw a photo of the anemometer trace and the winds were not associated with a tornado. The gusts increased nonlinearly, and were from the north -- the western portion of the eyewall.

[Category 5]

where do you get 100KT crazy?

If anything, it should have been 85-90KT based upon the SURFACE data

The maximum surface data would have been over a wildlife refuge, where there were no observations. Even if there were obs there, it would have been over water.

Flight-level winds peaked at 109 kt before landfall, translating to 98 kt at the surface (shown on the graphic at around 0400Z). Radar observations also go to the high 90s based on 6,500 feet.

If I remember correctly Ike wasn't exactly living up to the 90% rule for most of its time in the GOM.

[Derek Ortt]

if the high wind was valid, it could be the mesovortex, topography ehnamcement, or possibly a miniswirl within the eyewall, like what caused the damage in Andrew and Celia

[Ptarmigan]

if the high wind was valid, it could be the mesovortex, topography ehnamcement, or possibly a miniswirl within the eyewall, like what caused the damage in Andrew and Celia

Celia made landfall with 125 to 130 mph winds and had gusts of 175 mph.

[CrazyC83]

if the high wind was valid, it could be the mesovortex, topography ehnamcement, or possibly a miniswirl within the eyewall, like what caused the damage in Andrew and Celia

Celia made landfall with 125 to 130 mph winds and had gusts of 175 mph.

I believe gusts were 180 mph. I do think Celia was stronger at landfall though (a pressure of 945mb at Celia's size would be around 120-125 kt) especially considering it was bombing out like Charley was.

[Ptarmigan]

I believe gusts were 180 mph. I do think Celia was stronger at landfall though (a pressure of 945mb at Celia's size would be around 120-125 kt) especially considering it was bombing out like Charley was.

True, considering Celia was a small storm. It had very strong winds, I believe one of the strongest winds besides Carla.

[cycloneye]

Two more reports are up posted at the first post of thread and those are Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Paloma.

About Gustav,they say the gust (184kts) in Western Cuba may be valid and the WMO (World Meteorogical Organization) is investigating the facts.It may be associated to a mesovortex combined with the terrain.

[Derek Ortt]

Paloma no longer a major hurricane when it struck Cuba

[HURAKAN]

From Gustav:

Hispañiola = Española + Hispaniola !!

[CrazyC83]

My opinions on Gustav:

Haiti - Agreed with the intensity.

Jamaica - IMO it was a 65 kt hurricane when it hit Jamaica; the FL winds were 79 kt a couple hours earlier and it was still strengthening when it hit.

Cuba - There is some uncertainty there, but I agree in the 130 kt estimate as the Paso Real recordings were likely not representive of the intensity. The pressures I would bring down to 940mb at the Isle of Youth landfall and 938mb at the Cuba island landfall based on surface obs.

In the Gulf - Agreed in bringing down the intensity sooner. However, IMO it strengthened to 105 kt at 01/0000Z based on dropsonde and FL winds before weakening at a solid rate at landfall.

US landfall - Agreed in bringing it down to 90 kt (I would have considered 85 kt, but that would suggest that inland weakening was slow). I'd go with the observed pressure though and set it at 951mb.

[CrazyC83]

Paloma no longer a major hurricane when it struck Cuba

Which makes sense since it was rapidly weakening at that point. I thought that 110 kt operational estimate was very generous.

I would have increased Paloma's peak intensity to 130 kt at 08/1200Z though since there was no Recon for several hours and Paloma was clearly weakening when the 142 kt FL winds was recorded. The Cayman Brac estimate also supports such since it is only slightly above standard elevation and most likely not the highest winds in the storm. Likewise, I would have brought down the pressure to 941mb based on the extrapolation of 939mb at the last run (which was likely a bit high) and the lack of pressure data afterward.

Notice in the BT that they mention the 2nd strongest November hurricane is subject to change - I guess they clearly know the 1932 hurricane was at least 140 kt at its peak.

[CrazyC83]

My guess is Fay will be last, due to the large number of data and the disputed status over Florida (some would suggest it was a hurricane, but the data does not support such).

[Derek Ortt]

My opinions on Gustav:

Haiti - Agreed with the intensity.

Jamaica - IMO it was a 65 kt hurricane when it hit Jamaica; the FL winds were 79 kt a couple hours earlier and it was still strengthening when it hit.

Cuba - There is some uncertainty there, but I agree in the 130 kt estimate as the Paso Real recordings were likely not representive of the intensity. The pressures I would bring down to 940mb at the Isle of Youth landfall and 938mb at the Cuba island landfall based on surface obs.

In the Gulf - Agreed in bringing down the intensity sooner. However, IMO it strengthened to 105 kt at 01/0000Z based on dropsonde and FL winds before weakening at a solid rate at landfall.

US landfall - Agreed in bringing it down to 90 kt (I would have considered 85 kt, but that would suggest that inland weakening was slow). I'd go with the observed pressure though and set it at 951mb.

79KT at 850mb yields 63KT... a tropical storm at Jamaica

[cycloneye]

At report,they changed to fully Tropical for Laura.Report is posted at first pòst of thread.

[CrazyC83]

Omar also up. Confirmed as a Category 4.

[cycloneye]

The last report left in the Atlantic side is the Fay one.It will be a long one as it moved thru many land areas.

[CrazyC83]

I agree that Fay will be long and has a lot of data to sort out - plus the question over its peak intensity (the eye structure supports hurricane intensity, but surface obs were plentiful and do not quite - my guess is 60 kt for a peak intensity). I am guessing the two outstanding EPAC reports (Cristina and Julio) are next though.

[bvigal]

The last report left in the Atlantic side is the Fay one.It will be a long one as it moved thru many land areas.

That's right, Luis. AND, it was a 'sudden' TS, because they couldn't find a closed low, but didn't fly during the time some of us in the "neighborhood" think it formed a TD, then weakened temporarily.

[CrazyC83]

Ike's TCR was recently updated (I just noticed it).

Damage increased to $28.2B total and 4 of the missing have been found alive. Best track was also adjusted slightly in and around Cuba.

[CrazyC83]

Paloma's TCR was also updated, but the changes were minor - mostly track changes to the remnant low. (I would have made an intensity change, increasing the peak intensity to 130 kt at 08/1500 based on SFMR and FL winds and trends, with a pressure of 941mb.)