THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 139.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
040431Z AMSR-E PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE 24 HOURS PRESSURE TREND FROM PALAU IS
NEGLIGIBLE, SUGGESTING THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS NOT DEEPENED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE SAME PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS WEAK AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR UNFAVORABLY STRONG, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
