SIO: GAEL - Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HurricaneRobert]

Could be a candidate for the largest in this basin?

[Crostorm]

844
WTIO30 FMEE 080024

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/8/20082009
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/08 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 52.5E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 390 SE: 650 SO: 430 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/08 12 UTC: 24.0S/53.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 26.2S/54.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 28.4S/55.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/02/10 00 UTC: 29.8S/56.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/02/10 12 UTC: 30.6S/57.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/02/11 00 UTC: 31.2S/58.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ ET CI=5.5
CURRENT POSITION HAS BEEN MADE WITH THE RADAR OF LA REUNION.
CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED:150/8KT
SINCE 18 TU, 6 HOURS AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS AROUND 5.0+. EYE HAS GET WARMER
TONIGHT AND OVERALL PATTERN HAS SLIGHTY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS (BEST
PRESENTATION AT 20:30Z AND 21:30Z) BEFORE A NEW DETERIORATION AT 22:30Z.
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSU B 1830Z) STILL REVEALS AN ERODED EYEWALL
IN THE WESTERN PART.
MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS ARE CONCERNED BY SOME VIGOROUS OUTER BANDS
THAT HAS DEVELOPPED IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE AT MORE THAN 200 NM FROM
THE CENTER. ASSOCIATED DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE STARTING
FROM TODAY.
CYCLONIC SWELL FROM 3M TO 5M ON AVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE TO HIT EXPOSED COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND
MAURITIUS/ LA REUNION.
NO MAJOR CHANGES CAME FROM THE 12Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BETWEEN 60E AND 65E, GAEL IS
EXPECTED TO SPEED UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS
IN A LESS A
ND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GETTING
STRONGER SUNDAY EVENING) AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2009 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 22:05:04 S Lon : 52:36:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 927.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.7 5.5 5.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -5.4C Cloud Region Temp : -61.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

Its very windy and rainy on Reunion

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Its very windy and rainy on Reunion

You've got to remember Île Réunion is a mountainous volcanic island, hence higher elevations = more rain/stronger winds.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

08/0230 UTC 22.2S 52.9E T6.0/6.0 GAEL -- Southwest Indian

[wyq614]

08/0230 UTC 22.2S 52.9E T6.0/6.0 GAEL -- Southwest Indian

The last chance for Gael, let's see if Reunion will give it a 100kts intensity

[Squarethecircle]

That eye is looking mighty fine to me. True, Gael will probably have issues keeping up its intensity, as it did last time, but it's still a beautiful storm.

[Crostorm]

478
WTIO30 FMEE 080733

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/8/20082009
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/08 AT 0600 UTC :
22.9S / 53.0E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 180 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/08 18 UTC: 25.3S/53.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/09 06 UTC: 27.8S/55.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2009/02/09 18 UTC: 30.0S/57.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/02/10 06 UTC: 31.3S/58.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/02/10 18 UTC: 32.1S/59.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/02/11 06 UTC: 32.9S/60.6E, MAX WIND=045KT , EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ ET CI=5.5
CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED:150/11KT
SINCE 00TU, 6 HOURS AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS AROUND 5.0+. EYE STRUCTURE HAS
IMPROVED DURING THESE LAST HOURS (BETTER ASPECT BETWEEN 0200Z AND 0600Z).
LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (SSMIS 0145Z AND 0418Z) SHOW A FIX
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTRES, AND STILL REVEALS
AN ERODED EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN PART.
REUNION ISLAND IS LOCATED IN THE DANGEROUS SEMI-CIRCLE AND IS CONCERNED
BY VIOLENT WINDS. QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0330Z MEASURED 50 KT AT 60 NM FROM THE
WESTERN REUNION COAST. ASSOCIATED DISTURBED WEATHER SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
CYCLONIC SWELL FROM 3M TO 5M ON AVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES CONTINUE TO HIT EXPOSED COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND
MAURITIUS/ LA REUNION.
NO MAJOR CHANGES CAME FROM THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BETWEEN 60E AND 65E, GAEL IS
GOING TO KEEP ON SPEEDING UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS IN A
LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GETTING
STRONGER SUNDAY EVENING) AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.


.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

astrometeo974.fr

[Crostorm]

Now is Tropical Cyclone

175
WTIO30 FMEE 081207

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/08 AT 1200 UTC :
24.3S / 53.4E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 180 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/09 00 UTC: 27.0S/54.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/09 12 UTC: 29.7S/56.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/02/10 00 UTC: 31.6S/58.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/02/10 12 UTC: 32.5S/59.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/02/11 00 UTC: 33.0S/60.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/02/11 12 UTC: 34.4S/63.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ ET CI=5.5-
CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED:160/13KT
SINCE 06TU, 6 HOURS AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS AROUND 4.5+. EYE HAS STARTED TO
WARM TILL 0930Z AND SHOWS A RAAGED ASPECT SINCE 0700Z.
LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (SSMIS 0145Z AND 0418Z) SHOW A
DIFFERENCE OF LOCATION BETWEEN THE UPPER AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTRES, HINT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. AMSU 0559Z STILL REVEALS AN ERODED EYEWALL
IN THE WESTERN PART.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LA REUNION ISLAND DURING THE COMING NIGHT.
CYCLONIC SWELL OF 3M TO 5M ON AVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES CONTINUE TO HIT EXPOSED COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND MAURITIUS/ LA
REUNION.

NO MAJOR CHANGES CAME FROM THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BETWEEN 60E AND 65E, GAEL IS
GOING TO KEEP ON SPEEDING UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS IN A
LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR STRONGER
STARTING THIS COMING NIGHT AND THEN INSUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL AS
THE SSTS BECOME COOL) AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Looks a lot like Ike did in the Gulf...

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

946
WTIO30 FMEE 081824

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/8/20082009
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (GAEL)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/08 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1S / 53.8E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 550 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/09 06 UTC: 27.5S/55.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2009/02/09 18 UTC: 29.8S/57.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2009/02/10 06 UTC: 31.1S/58.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/02/10 18 UTC: 31.7S/60.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/02/11 06 UTC: 32.7S/62.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/02/11 18 UTC: 33.8S/63.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 AND CI=5.0

LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERIES (TRMM 0915Z - AQUA 1033Z - SSMIS 1416Z
)
CONFIRMS A BIG DIFFERENCE OF LOCATION (ABOUT 30 TO 40 NM) BETWEEN THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE UPPER LEVEL ONE IN ITS SOUTHEAST, HINT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LA REUNION ISLAND DURING THE COMING NIGHT.
CYCLONIC SWELL OF 3M TO 5M ON AVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES CONTINUE TO HIT EXPOSED COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND MAURITIUS/ LA
REUNION.

NO MAJOR CHANGES CAME FROM THE 00Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BETWEEN 60E AND 65E, GAEL IS
GOING TO KEEP ON SPEEDING UP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS IN A
LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR STRONGER
STARTING THIS COMING NIGHT AND THEN INSUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL AS
THE SSTS BECOME COOL) AND TO WEAK BEFORE BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD SLOW DOWN THE EXTRATROPICAL EXIT OF GAEL.