Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

[cheezyWXguy]

There is still a big unknown as mentioned on KOCO - what happens when the storms go southeast? The conditions in the path of the training supercells so far have been quite marginal...

I don't know but the showers have been quite widespread here across DFW this afternoon. Although the sun got us up to around 70 earlier, right now the rain has cooled us off a bit and the clouds aren't breaking. The main event for DFW may end up being no more than a marginally severe squall line late tonight, unless these showers clear out before sunset.

Thats not necessarily true. The showers have been expected and they are starting to increase in intensity some. They are fairly small too, and although theyre widespread, it doesnt seem like enough to decrease the instablility. Stabilization may be more of a factor if the showers were just a solid sheet of green on radar. Nonetheless I hope what we get isnt as bad as the number of tornadoes OK is experiencing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

First cells West of DFW, as close as Palo Pinto County- these will go Northwest of FTW, but I suspect more will fill in coming off the dry line.

[Texas Snowman]

Well, all afternoon the severe storms keep reforming in rain cooled air in SW Oklahoma and riding NE. So, 66 in Sherman/Denison after a thundershower still keeps this area in the ballgame IMO.

It will be interesting to see what happens in N/C Texas as the dynamics shift a bit eastward. That last satellite shot above shows plenty of opportunity for the sun to do its late afternoon work in N/C Texas.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL AR...SW MO AND EXTREME SE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 102250Z - 110015Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PORTIONS OF
WRN AR THROUGH SW MO AND SERN KS THIS EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MOIST AXIS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS EXTENDS THROUGH AR.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SW MO
AND SERN KS. HOWEVER...AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN THE SLY LOW
LEVEL JET TO IN EXCESS OF 60KT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE NWD THETA-E
ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION INTO SW MO AND EXTREME SE KS NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE 21Z SPECIAL RAOB FROM LITTLE ROCK SHOWED A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING FROM NE TX INTO NRN AR AND WITH TIME...ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 02/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 34089375 34889399 36739383 37119580 37869579 38199430
37789205 36319183 34109275 34089375

[RL3AO]

0501 PM TSTM WND DMG PAWNEE 36.34N 96.80W
02/10/2009 PAWNEE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0438 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S PAWNEE 36.32N 96.80W
02/10/2009 PAWNEE OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

SINGLE-WIDE MOBILE OVERTURNED...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO A
DOUBLE-WDE MOBILE HOME. REPORTED AS WIND DAMAGE. LOCATION
ESTIMATED.

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
OKC113-117-102345-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0002.090210T2259Z-090210T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
459 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 545 PM CST

* AT 455 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION 3
MILES NORTHWEST OF MARAMEC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A
DANGEROUS STORM...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT ANY TIME.

ANOTHER TORNADIC STORM IS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RALSTON ALSO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SKEDEE...
BLACKBURN...RALSTON...FAIRFAX...WYNONA...PAWHUSKA AND PEARSONIA.

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

LAT...LON 3666 9667 3687 9641 3669 9612 3617 9669
3628 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 218DEG 38KT 3630 9670

$$

[Texas Snowman]

Decent cells have really blossomed near and to the SW of Wichita Falls.

Another group of decent cells blowing up south of Henrietta.

I'm surprised that Texas has not been more in the game so far this afternoon.

[Dave]

Thanks Crazy, that's the one I thought I duped earlier. Running behind right now.

[RL3AO]

Cell in Jack Co. Texas is picking up steam. Currently in a Dallas-FW WFO county. Will be entering an OKC WFO county. Then back into DFW County. Then into OKC county after than.

[RL3AO]

Osage Co. Cell

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

OKC113-117-102345-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090210T2345Z/
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
515 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR PAWNEE
AND CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTIES...

AT 512 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLACKBURN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WYNONA...
PERSHING...PAWHUSKA AND NELAGONEY.

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

LAT...LON 3639 9668 3677 9625 3676 9624 3668 9613
3629 9655
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 225DEG 37KT 3640 9652

$$

[RL3AO]

80kts of rotation on radar.

[Texas Snowman]

I know most of the focus has been on tornadoes, but I would think that with the training nature of these cells, some counties have to be getting close to flash flood warning criteria.

So far, though, no warnings for flooding.

[Texas Snowman]

KOCO says that Oklahoma Emergency Management confirms six homes destroyed near the Oak Tree Country Club in Edmond.

So far, however, only three minor injuries.

Other damage reported in NW OKC.

[CrazyC83]

I remember all the early discussions suggesting that the timing would be late evening due to the LLJ picking up...the OK cells have not had a great amount of shear to work with...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...

VALID 102325Z - 110030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.

SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS THE AREA OF
STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION OVER WESTERN TEXAS MOVES EASTWARD AND
INTERACTS WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG/...DISCRETE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES AROUND 400-500 /CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS NEW CONVECTION IN HILL COUNTY/. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WITH TORNADOES...BUT A
STRONG SQUALL LINE FURTHER TO THE WEST IN WW 0008 WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER IN THE EVENING...BRINGING A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ASSOCIATED BOW ECHOES. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..LEVIT.. 02/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34499447 34479497 34039513 33849554 33819616 33819669
33619682 32979736 32529757 32369839 31919866 31079816
31509676 31639529 31919467 32159404 32949393 33819397
34499447

[Texas Snowman]

The wind shear interacting with the instability axis...does that mean that the chance grows later in the evening for longer lived, stronger tornadoes?

[RL3AO]

The wind shear interacting with the instability axis...does that mean that the chance grows later in the evening for longer lived, stronger tornadoes?

Yes. Conditions in the Dallas area will be more favorable than they were in the OKC area. The question is if any supercells will develop in front of the sqall line.

[CrazyC83]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 535 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 8...WW 9...WW 10...

DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS
WATCH AREA AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL OK. SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THRU THE EVENING FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELL OSAGE COUNTY OK TRACKING INTO SERN KS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES

[Texas Snowman]

That's what I thought, but I didn't want to display my weather geek ignorance among so many veteran storm watchers.

BTW, NewsOK Twitter feed has a report of 45 homes in the Gutherie area having "some damage".

I guess the good news is that so far, all of these Oklahoma tornado reports appear to have been of the EF1-EF2 variety with no major injuries.