Tornado outbreak - February 10-11, 8+ dead

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...TN VALLEY REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111602Z - 111730Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF QUICKLY-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE. WW MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BUT LOW-TOPPED LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NERN MS. MORNING
SOUNDINGS REVEAL LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY...WITH THE CONVECTIVE
LINE SUSTAINED PRIMARILY BY STRONG FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE OZARKS TAKES ON AN
INCREASINGLY-NEGATIVE TILT...THE SURFACE FRONT -- AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE LINE -- SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD. WITH VERY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION...EVEN SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
OF TRANSPORTING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

..GOSS.. 02/11/2009


ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
BMX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON 33888745 34448768 35838741 37048735 38498619 38908490
38828390 38418307 37528281 36268317 34898414 34158596
33888745

[Dave]

Looks like it's that time of day...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1030 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST.

* AT 1026 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF MADISONVILLE TO 18 MILES WEST
OF FORT CAMPBELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DAWSON SPRINGS...
FORT CAMPBELL NORTH...
MADISONVILLE...
HOPKINSVILLE...
EARLINGTON...
CROFTON...
OAK GROVE...
NORTONVILLE...
MORTONS GAP...
PEMBROKE...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED
TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 16
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST OHIO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL
600 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NASHVILLE
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING OVER WESTERN
KY/TN AS VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ROTATES INTO REGION. DESPITE VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME DUE TO DRYING ALOFT AND ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM. LOW AND MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES ALONG THE
LINE AND AN ATTENDANT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...HART

[Dave]

This does include my area in Indiana....just waiting now.

[Dave]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 17
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
600 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BIRMINGHAM
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER MIDDLE
TN...EXTENDING INTO EASTERN AL. THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS 120+ KNOT MID LEVEL
JET MAX SURGES INTO REGION. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE FOR BOW/LEWPS ALONG THE LINE...AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE...CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...HART

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1256 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EST/1230 PM CST/...

* AT 1255 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 21 MILES WEST OF
ENGLISH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ENGLISH BY 125 PM EST...
9 MILES SOUTH OF PAOLI BY 130 PM EST...

[CrazyC83]

That appears to me like a LEWP pattern embedded rotation.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1201 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEWISBURG...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CST

* AT 1157 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
LEWISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

[CrazyC83]

So far, 2 tornadoes confirmed:

Colleyville, Texas - EF1
Springfield, Missouri - EF1

As for Lone Grove, it is hard to tell. I haven't seen any pictures to support higher than EF3 though, but that doesn't mean that there isn't EF4 damage out there.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN HALVES OF TN AND KY/SRN IN/SRN OH/WRN WV/WRN
VA/

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 16...

VALID 111835Z - 112000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 16 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SPREADING RAPIDLY EWD...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.

STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE IS NOW CROSSING CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE
TN...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY...STRENGTH OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DAMAGING GUSTS ALONG THIS LINE. WITH THE LINE TRANSLATING
EWD AT AROUND 50 MPH...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS E OF WW
16 IN THE NEXT 1 TO 1 1/2 HOURS. THUS...NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED EWD
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CREST.

..GOSS.. 02/11/2009


ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
OHX...IND...HUN...

LAT...LON 35248654 36608623 39058647 39578395 40338250 40238083
37388205 36108255 35178434 35248654

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
TNC015-031-041-177-111915-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0002.090211T1846Z-090211T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1246 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CANNON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WOODBURY...
NORTHWESTERN COFFEE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
DEKALB COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SMITHVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1242 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WOODBURY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WOODBURY BY 1255 PM CST...
SMITHVILLE BY 110 PM CST...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

LAT...LON 3608 8570 3600 8563 3598 8565 3587 8564
3560 8623 3569 8624 3572 8621 3575 8620
3576 8618 3580 8618 3585 8617 3609 8573
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 238DEG 53KT 3572 8621

$$

ROSE

[Bunkertor]

Impressive line here either

[CrazyC83]

Yep, up to a moderate risk due to wind damage threat.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 111940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN KY...SRN OH...WRN
WV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
WRN PA TO ERN AL...

...OH/TN VALLEY...

INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AS VERY STRONG H5 SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 110-120KT...LIFTS
ACROSS TN/ERN KS INTO SRN WV. EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INDUCE VERY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...AS EVIDENT BY H5 HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF
270-300M/12HR. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS FOCUSED DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG SURGING COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN TN/KY INTO SRN OH/WV. LATEST RADAR
DATA SUGGESTS WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED SMALL
BOW-TYPE FEATURES...IS MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 40-45KT...WITH
INDIVIDUAL CELLS RACING NEWD IN EXCESS OF 50KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EVOLVING BENEATH STRONG JET CORE AND IS EXTREMELY SHEARED WITHIN
INCREASING SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW. THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN THAT
VERY STRONG DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH MORE ORGANIZED BOW
SHAPED STRUCTURES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL
SUNSHINE HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS SERN OH/ERN KS INTO
WV WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING 7C/KM. ALTHOUGH
LIGHTNING IS NEARLY ABSENT WITH THIS LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...VERY
STRONG WINDS MAY BE TRANSFERED TO THE SURFACE MORE EASILY AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WITH SQUALL LINE AS IT
SPREADS NEWD.

..DARROW.. 02/11/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2007Z (3:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CST WED FEB 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112016Z - 112145Z

LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON -- BUT MAY NOT REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE THREAT.

LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN IL/INDIANA
ATTM...BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE UPPER LOW. THE
COLD AIR ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
MINIMAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD INTO INDIANA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD EVIDENT ACROSS THIS AREA PER VWPS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SPORADIC/LOW-END SEVERE EVENTS -- POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A BRIEF TORNADO.

..GOSS.. 02/11/2009


ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 39058635 39348730 39868756 40658731 40848713 41058511
40448479 39248541 39058635

[Bunkertor]

OK briefing on CNN right now.

[Texas Snowman]

Daily Oklahoman reporting this afternoon that NWS meteorologists indicating that while they still have more damage to see, initial rating of the Lone Grove tornado is EF3.

[CrazyC83]

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EST.

HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HOT SPRINGS NORTH CAROLINA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DESPITE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG WIND FIELDS
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

Daily Oklahoman reporting this afternoon that NWS meteorologists indicating that while they still have more damage to see, initial rating of the Lone Grove tornado is EF3.

Maybe they are going to call in a QRT? That is what it sounds like.

[Shockwave]

Daily Oklahoman reporting this afternoon that NWS meteorologists indicating that while they still have more damage to see, initial rating of the Lone Grove tornado is EF3.

Maybe they are going to call in a QRT? That is what it sounds like.

That's what OHX did for us last year on our tornado. Our tornado ended up only with an end rating of EF-3, but they said most areas had where EF-2 damage which I still find hard to believe cause it all looked like strong EF-3 damage.

*They (the school system) made us get into the tornado drill mode for about 5-10 minutes while that line passed us today at around noon. Not too much I saw on the way home as in trees down or anything of that nature. Did see some shingles off homes and some peoples patio furniture thrown around...

Reported wind gust of 51 mph here as of the 4:00 CST.