Severe weather outbreak? February 18 - Southeast

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LA TO SOUTHERN MS/SOUTHERN AL AND FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 182258Z - 190030Z

STILL MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHERN MS TO SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK
SHOULD STORMS FURTHER INCREASE.

SOUTH OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 24...RELATIVELY ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
INCREASED TO A DEGREE WITHIN A PRE-COLD FRONTAL MOIST CONFLUENCE
ZONE FROM SOUTHERN LA INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR BY SOMEWHAT THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND MORE LIMITED HEATING...IN ADDITION TO BEING MORE REMOVED FROM
THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING TO THE NORTH. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
STILL UNCLEAR WITH THE SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED THIS EVENING...BUT VERY STRONG/LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES /PER WSR-88D PROFILES FROM MOBILE/ WOULD SUPPORT
WELL-ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS. WHILE TSTMS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...TSTMS MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A LINEAR MODE MORE
LIKELY BY THAT TIME.

..GUYER.. 02/18/2009


ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30049097 31869006 32018809 31918669 31508638 30548610
30298843 29488979 30049097

[Texas Snowman]

Wow, I guess I thought it was always NWS protocol to issue tornado emergencies only when there WAS ground confirmation of a large, violent tornado w/in or approaching a town, city, or municipality.

I thought that because I can't ever seeing a tornado emergency declaration w/out the above parameters in place.

Obviously I guess I was mistaken.

[Texas Snowman]

There were quite a few tornado emergencies last year, but they all had confirmed tornadoes with them.

I'm pretty sure that the Lone Grove tornado last week had a tornado emergency with the warning...after spotters confirmed it on the ground not far from Ardmore/Lone Grove.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BUTLER...
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 511 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES WEST OF
NEEDHAM...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUTLER...MOVING EAST AT 60
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
613 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 700 PM EST

* AT 611 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES WEST OF
BOWDON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
ZION...ROOPVILLE...CARROLLTON AND WHITESBURG.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
619 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
CENTRAL TWIGGS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 645 PM EST

* AT 615 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WARNER
ROBINS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
JEFFERSONVILLE AND DANVILLE.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
621 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTH CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
EAST CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
OCONEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 715 PM EST

* AT 616 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF
GOOD HOPE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BOSTWICK...NORTH HIGH SHOALS...BISHOP...WATKINSVILLE...MAXEYS...
CRAWFORD...LEXINGTON AND WOODVILLE.

[Category 5]

[Brent]

Wow, I guess I thought it was always NWS protocol to issue tornado emergencies only when there WAS ground confirmation of a large, violent tornado w/in or approaching a town, city, or municipality.

I thought that because I can't ever seeing a tornado emergency declaration w/out the above parameters in place.

Obviously I guess I was mistaken.

Yeah, I've never seen one for just ordinary tornado warnings before today. Weird and not good since it diminishes them. Certainly no large tornadoes reported today so far.

That supercell between Selma and Montgomery is very ominous.

[MGC]

Cell west of Montgomery has a rather pronounced hook echo...MGC

[Cookie]

thanks for posting those images cat 5

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
528 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN AUTAUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PRATTVILLE...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ELMORE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAYNEVILLE...
WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MONTGOMERY...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 524 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BENTON...OR 13
MILES EAST OF SELMA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LOWNDESBORO BY 540 PM CST...
CANTELOUS...DANNELLY FIELD AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF HUNTER BY 550 PM
CST...
WOODCREST AND HOPE HULL BY 555 PM CST...
PINEDALE...SNOWDOUN AND MONTGOMERY BY 600 PM CST...
PINEDALE BY 605 PM CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 158 THROUGH 176...
AND INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 11.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BASEBALL
SIZE HAIL AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

[CrazyC83]

Can't seem to find coverage out of Montgomery.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF GA INTO SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...

VALID 182326Z - 190100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES AS
WELL AS LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS EXIST
REGARDING DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST/COASTAL GA AND
CENTRAL/COASTAL SC...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH GIVEN THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM TSTMS
ACROSS GA.

POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SPREAD
EASTWARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL GA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND PERHAPS INTO EASTERN GA AND UPSTATE SC. AS OF
2330Z...THE MOST PROLIFIC SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITHIN
TORNADO WATCH 25 ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE ATLANTA METRO ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-20. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A SOUTHWESTERLY MOIST LOW
LEVEL INFLUX ACROSS AL/GA...WITH SPATIALLY MAXIMIZED PRESSURE FALLS
AND LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GA
ALONG/SOUTH OF A WEDGE-WARM FRONT. AS SUCH...OVERALL KINEMATIC
SCENARIO WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE TORNADO
RISK...AMPLE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STRONG EARLY SEASON
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED STORMS.

..GUYER.. 02/18/2009


ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 34448455 34088322 33928149 33038100 31708265 31398553
32058605 34448455

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BUTTS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 715 PM EST

* AT 628 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LOCUST GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
JENKINSBURG AND JACKSON.

[CrazyC83]

Coverage from Atlanta - http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/subindex/weather

[Cookie]

Coverage from Atlanta - http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/subindex/weather

thanks for posting

[Category 5]

On the current track the area of rotation would pass through southern parts of Montgomery.

[Cookie]

that link had views from the airport cam, some lightning!

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
644 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BLECKLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHERN LAURENS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
EAST CENTRAL TWIGGS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 730 PM EST

* AT 640 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DANVILLE...MONTROSE...DUDLEY...DUBLIN AND EAST DUBLIN.