Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST MON FEB 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER HAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...WHEN A DRIER SLOT
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE WEST TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...SUPPRESSING EVEN MORE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. LATEST MIMIC-TPW VALUES WERE SHOWING BETWEEN
0.50-0.75 INCHES IN THIS AREA. ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL OVER LAND
AREAS. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL BE A HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT DAYS...AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOP..AND MOVE EAST OF THE U.S.
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST TUE FEB 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BE THE
MAIN DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH WED. AN AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY TODAY AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NW ATLANTIC DRAGGING A CDFNT THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES IS FCST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WED WITH A REINFORCING CDFNT BECOMING
STATIONARY AS IT APPROACHES LATITUDE 20N ON FRI. LARGE PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO THE
LOCAL ATLC WATERS ON FRI AND PRODUCE MODERATE BREAKING WAVES ALG THE
ATLC COASTLINE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID
LVLS OF THE ATMS OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BE DOMINANT WX FEATURE NEXT
24 HRS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLC EAST OF 60W. BOTH
NAM12 AND GFS40 SHOW PWATS VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH AND A STRONG
LOW-LVL CAP THAT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. I HAVE BACKED
OFF ON POPS FOR TODAY BASED ON ALL THESE FACTORS WITH THE SLIM
CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR A LONE SHOWER MAINLY OVR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SIERRA DE LUQUILLO AND SIERRA DE CAYEY
BUT PERCENTAGE IS VERY LOW ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF HIGHER PWAT AIR AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
EAST OF 60W PER LATEST MIMIC TPW AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS EXPECTED
TO ADVECT WESTWARD TOWARD THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO EARLY
THIS EVENING PER LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVR THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND THE USVI UNDER THE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

LOOKING AHEAD...LOW LEVEL PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE DEPICTED
THIS MORNING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OUT AT SEA...ACCORDING THE BOTH NAM
AND GFS LATEST RUN. ALTHOUGH...THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF PUERTO
RICO COULD EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OUT
WEST AND A MODERATE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THURSDAY...DRIER AIR COMES BACK FOR LIMITED SHOWER ACTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVEL AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A GROUP OF CLOUDS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 45W-50W IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...AN INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND OVERALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
LOOKS LIKE FRAGMENTED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH INTERVAL OF PASSING
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

ALSO...ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR NORTH
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE LOCAL NORTHWESTERN OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THEN RETROGATES WHILE IT DISSIPATES AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS XPCD NEXT 24 HRS AT MOST TAF SITES WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION OF TNCM AND TKPK WHERE PATCHY LOW-LVL CLOUDS
COULD PRODUCE -SHRAS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT USVI AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. OPTED TO KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO ITS
CANCELLATION TIME. HOWEVER...BREAKING WAVES ARE BARELY MAKING THE
HSA CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ROUGH SEAS CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THEREFORE...SCA ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
AT LEAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 PM AST WED FEB 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...PESKY BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STILL TRYING TO
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME AND ITS MOVEMENT...OR
LACK THEREOF...IS THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY AND INTO/THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
HEIGHTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL AND GFS NOW MORE EMPHATIC THAT
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE CLOSER AND POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS THE
FA. THIS AND DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST U.S.
SHOULD HELP EVENTUALLY FORCE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEAR
TO...BUT STILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE ACROSS...THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
OR ITS REMNANTS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS OUTCOME REMAINS
RATHER IMPORTANT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN
LOTS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED GREATLY IMPROVED WESTERLY MID LEVEL
VENTILATION.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 PM AST THU FEB 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS TROUGHINESS AND
WESTERLIES SLOWLY ENCROACH FROM THE WEST...AND STILL EXPECT
HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO OR ACROSS THE FA
EVEN INTO MONDAY OR TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT THIS PATTERN SHIFT AND
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO CONTINUE TO FORCE
THE COLD FRONT VERY NEAR TO...BUT STILL PROBABLY NOT QUITE ACROSS
(WILL BE VERY CLOSE)...THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THIS BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS STILL LINGERING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVENTUAL
ALIGNMENT OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS VERY IMPORTANT TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS PROXIMITY OF THIS MOISTURE
COULD RESULT IN LOTS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED GREATLY IMPROVED WESTERLY MID
LEVEL VENTILATION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
PASSING SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH 2230Z...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OFF
SHORE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NEXT ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH
SWELLS STILL EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THESE SWELLS BUILDING QUICKLY DURING FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS AND FRESHENING
TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALREADY GOING INTO EFFECT (FUTURE) FOR FRIDAY AND
EXPECT THAT HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST FRI FEB 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS WEAKEN...AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AIRPORT
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJBQ...WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS OR EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE FROM 0621/0623Z.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE EXPOSED NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN LOCAL COASTLINES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE PASSAGES.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST SAT FEB 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...
EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD THIS
MORNING...MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BY THAT TIME...MID TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER...WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS. WHILE THIS HAPPEN...THE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
FROM TIME TO TIME...AREAS OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY...WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. IN FACT...LATEST RADAR
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE NORTHERN U.S. V.I. AND
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCES ALSO SUGGEST
A RETURN TO A DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL CREATE LARGE BREAKING
WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED SHOALS...REEFS AND COASTLINES OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S.V.I...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD WILL REMAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KNOTS BLW 15K FT THEN BECMG MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BTWN 15-25K FT. THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS BTWN 2-10K FT ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS AT TJSJ AND
TJBQ. BRIEF WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THESE AREAS AS WELL AS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BTWN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT THE REMAINDER OF LOCAL TAF SITE. THE PASSING CLOUDS
MAY ALSO OBSCURE LOCAL MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO OTHER OPERATIONAL IMPACTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS LARGE
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND FOR ALL OF THE PASSAGES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
LOCAL NORTHERN WATERS AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE TO THE FA IN COMBINATION
WITH A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MAXIMUM ECHO
TOPS OF 20-25K FEET WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. THIS RELATIVELY DRY SPOT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD...
APPROACHING TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING EVEN MORE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WITH BETTER
DYNAMIC CONDITIONS AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

BOTH GFS AND NAM MODEL SUGGEST THAT A BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PWA VALUES OF
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AREAWIDE. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO AGREED THAT THIS
UNUSUAL WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PERSIST
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL INDUCE
URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS AND EVEN
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. LOOKING AHEAD...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCES
SUGGEST A RETURN TO A DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH
A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LINGERED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND THE WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MOST OF CLOUDS LAYERS WERE
BTWN 03K-10K FT WITH MAX TOPS OF 20-24K FT WITH THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MOSTLY NORTH OF PR. THE PREVAILING
NORTHEAST TRADE WILL CONTINUE BRING INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ENROUTE TO AROUND TJSJ AND
TJBQ. THESE PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS BLW
15K FT...THEN BCMG WESTERLY 25-30 KTS UP TO NR 30K FT.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL CREATE LARGE BREAKING WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
SHOALS...REEFS AND COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
U.S.V.I...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST NOON TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS LARGE
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

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[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST SUN FEB 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE
LOCAL NORTHERN WATERS AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE TO THE FA IN COMBINATION
WITH A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MAXIMUM ECHO
TOPS OF 20-25K FEET WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. THIS RELATIVELY DRY SPOT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD...
APPROACHING TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING EVEN MORE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WITH BETTER
DYNAMIC CONDITIONS AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

BOTH GFS AND NAM MODEL SUGGEST THAT A BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PWA VALUES OF
AROUND 2.0 INCHES AREAWIDE. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO AGREED THAT THIS
UNUSUAL WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PERSIST
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL INDUCE
URBAN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS AND EVEN
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. LOOKING AHEAD...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCES
SUGGEST A RETURN TO A DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH
A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LINGERED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND THE WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MOST OF CLOUDS LAYERS WERE
BTWN 03K-10K FT WITH MAX TOPS OF 20-24K FT WITH THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW MOSTLY NORTH OF PR. THE PREVAILING
NORTHEAST TRADE WILL CONTINUE BRING INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ENROUTE TO AROUND TJSJ AND
TJBQ. THESE PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS BLW
15K FT...THEN BCMG WESTERLY 25-30 KTS UP TO NR 30K FT.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL CREATE LARGE BREAKING WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
SHOALS...REEFS AND COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
U.S.V.I...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST NOON TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS LARGE
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

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Tkanks Cycloneye for all these infos, hope you're safe in Puerto Rico, in spite of this fool weather!
I'm sorry for not posting much more, because we're so busy with the troubles in my island, numerous power outages as we're awfully in strike since 20 DAYS, it's history here!).
Concerning the weather, not very pleasant for us too...wet wetter conditions are propagating today (numerous showers, and cool temperatures ). not good news for us symbolically but we hope after 20 days...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST MON FEB 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN ITS TAIL WILL
CROSS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES OVER PUERTO RICO AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL FORM A WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW TODAY THAT WILL SINK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
DURING THE WEEK AND DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FORM A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BY
THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INCREASE THE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS MOVE WILL DRIVE AN OLD COLD FRONT BOUNDARY...NOW
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRYER AIR AND SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD 24
NORTH NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA IN SEVERAL BROAD ARCS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER LAND INDICATED BY RADAR IS ON THE EAST COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF
PUERTO RICO AND OVER SAINT THOMAS. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS TOOK A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY HEADING AND ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PUT SAN JUAN IN A
WEAK SHADOW AREA...IT WILL GIVE THE EAST COAST A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN
TODAY. THE MOISTURE IN THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE IN THE AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST PASSES THROUGH FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT MODEL HAS
ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
BUT DOES NOT BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL
UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN BEGIN A STEADY AND UNINTERRUPTED
AND GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH FEB 19/00Z. THE COOLING WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DRYING WHICH ALSO ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS AT LOWER LEVELS OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND CONDITIONS DO NOT MOISTEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD POPS FOR THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS WHICH WILL FADE AWAY AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY LATER IN THE WEEK BUT
SHOULD BE COOLER TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE WHEN THE SUN DAWNS. MAY HAVE TO LOWER GRIDS FOR TODAY IN AN AMENDMENT.

DUE TO INCREASING GRADIENTS FROM THE MIGRATING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE. EXPECT THEM TO APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME AREAS...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING. MOST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH DURING THE
DAY...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ FROM 0912/0918 PRODUCING
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. IN THE AFTERNOON...THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND WILL AFFECT TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ
MAINLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS...EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR 10
FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK...BUT SEAS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT FOR ANOTHER 6 DAYS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY IN UNPROTECTED
WATERS.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST TUE FEB 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TAIL OF THE JET WILL PASS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENT FLOW IS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST BUT WILL
GAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN
THIS WAY UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SINK INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TOMORROW WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST
OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMES ZONAL ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO FADES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DECREASE
OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST A FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY THAT LODGED ITSELF ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO IS FINALLY FADING...BUT FILTERED MORNING
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WHICH WILL
BE ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT APPEARS OVER
THE AREA AT 12 AND 18Z...HENCE THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WORDING IN THE
ZONES FOR SEVERAL NORTHERN ZONES. GFS AND NAM WERE NOT IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z RUN WHERE THE NAM KEPT
RELATIVELY ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS UNTIL 11/09Z...WHILE THE GFS BROUGHT LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BETWEEN 60 TO 70 PERCENT...IN AT 10/12Z...FOLLOWED BY
BETTER VALUES AT 18Z AND 00Z THAT INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SOLUTIONS IN
THE MODELS APPEAR TO CONVERGE ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. BOTH MODELS HAVE A SHORT LIVED DRY SPELL ON
WEDNESDAY SINCE MOISTURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN
FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AIR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PULSE OF
MOISTURE IS BROUGHT ACROSS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE TAIL-END
OF A FRONT THROUGH ON THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT AND UNUSUAL WIND DIRECTIONS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
DURING THE REST OF THAT WEEK.

THEREFORE...SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE WEEK
WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DRY WEEKEND AND ONLY
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE VI AIRPORT SITES
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...TAF SITES OVER PUERTO RICO AND MAINLY
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ...MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS......WHERE CEILINGS COULD GO DOWN AS MUCH AS 1500 FT WITH
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AS SHOWERS MOVE BY. THERE WILL BE BRIEF
TIMES DURING HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR...BUT
SHORT LIVED IN DURATION. THE ABOVE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THIS PERIOD ARE RELATED TO THE REMNANT OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA INTERACTING WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AID FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK BUT DO SLOWLY COME DOWN AFTER TODAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEAS RISE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. PERIODS TEND TO BE LESS THAN 9 SECONDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK DUE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1201 PM AST WED FEB 11 2009

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS MAINTAINING
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES...THE WINDS BEING ESTIMATED BY DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY...AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
MPH OR GREATER ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OR NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY AIR UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA IS VISIBLE IN
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND UPDATE THE ZONES TO REFLECT
CANCELLATION OF WIND ADVISORY ALONG WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES TODAY...EXCLUDING TKPK...WHERE PASSING IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 22Z. E WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS THROUGH 22Z TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PROTECTED WATERS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM AST WED FEB 11 2009/

DISCUSSION...A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST THEN EAST NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE CREATING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS.

AS THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A
DRIER AIR MASS AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE DAYS AHEAD. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE ISLANDS.

ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION...THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE A SURGE OF MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AND EXITING THE MONA PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THEN...ON SUNDAY DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN.

OVERALL...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND A LOT OF SUNSHINE FOR TODAY
FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A MODERATE TO STRONG ENE WIND
FLOW AND TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID 80S ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND
MID 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
ISLAND AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS...THE SEAS ARE ROUGH AND DANGEROUS...RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THIS SITUATION WILL NOT IMPROVE ANY
TIME SOON. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS INCLUDING THE LOCAL PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEAS ARE AVERAGING FROM 7 TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WHILE THE PASSAGES ARE
AVERAGING BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER TNCM AND TKPK ARE STILL UNDER A BAND OF
MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THROUGH 12Z AND AGAIN AFTER 12/00Z. DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM 17-22Z SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO...THOUGH TJPS MAY NOT BE IMPACTED MUCH. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN GENERAL OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12/00Z...BUT
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
AIRPORTS ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE AFTER 11/16Z.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST THU FEB 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC HELPED TO INDUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BROUGHT VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE VI AND SECTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
PR AS WELL AS THE VI. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE REGION. IN FACT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PASSING BAND OF
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM TNCM TO NORTH OF PR...IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND A BRIEF -SHRA WILL
LIKELY BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS TO SECTIONS OF THE
VI...TJSJ...TJBQ...TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 13Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND A MORE TYPICAL ENE 15KT TRADE WIND FLOW
IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS OF 7 FEET OR GREATER FOR LARGE SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. AS THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO
DECREASE...EXPECT IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS SEAS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY OR BY
EARLY SATURDAY. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL INVADE THE LOCAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 PM AST FRI FEB 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AS DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT THIS RELATIVE QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED IN A MODERATE EAST NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. A SURGE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COMBINED
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL HELP TO MOISTURE UP THE ATMOSPHERE AND
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND ALL LOCAL TAF SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST
WIND PROFILE...A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL BLW 20K FT...THEN DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY UP TO NEAR 30 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL
INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST SAT FEB 14 2009


.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER AND SATELLITES IMAGES SHOWED A LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY AND STABLE AIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO OUR LOCAL FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS THE MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA AND ALL LOCAL TAF SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT TO LOCAL WATERS. A BIGGER SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO
INCREASE ON TUESDAY...GENERATING CONFUSE SEAS THROUGH AT THURSDAY.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 AM AST SUN FEB 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC...KEEPING VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING ONLY AROUND 1.00 INCH PW. A VERY
WEAK PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE STAYING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACIDITY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE W ATLC
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT SEWD THROUGH THE SW ATLC...TOWARD THE LOCAL
AREA. GFS SHOWING THE FRONT TO PASS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AT A
DECENT CLIP. BY THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE
AREA...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD AND LOW LEVEL TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. NOT LOOKING LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS FAIRLY CALM ATTM...EXPECTING ENE WIND WAVE ENERGY
TO BUILD A BIT MONDAY OVER THE ATLC/ANEGADA PASSAGE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMES FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. LOOKING FOR SEAS TO PEAK AROUND 10 FEET...AS 2.5
TO 3 METER NWLY LONG PERIOD SWELL HITS THE ATLC WATERS AND
PASSAGES. COULD BE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY EVENT FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY FOR THEN NORTHERN COASTLINES.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST MON FEB 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY...PASSING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED
THE NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND
BECOME MORE VARIABLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SHOWERS WILL BE
SLOW MOVERS AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TODAY...
THEREFORE EXPECT LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNS POURS ALONG THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION.
FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE
EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP PUSH FRONTAL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...NO OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE WEAK...UNDER 10 KNOTS AT MOST OR ALL
SITES.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY...BEFORE
BUILDING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING SEAS AND
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE COLD FRONT PROMISE DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...AND
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN FACING COASTLINES.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 PM AST TUE FEB 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND PART OF WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD. SO FAR...THE WAY THIS SYSTEM LOOKS AS OF
1930Z...ONLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE TO AFFECT SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AFTER THE REMNANT OF THIS BOUNDARY CROSSES THE ISLAND...CLOSE TO
NOON TIME...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BEGINNING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INVADE
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
FRO THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... FROM 1804Z TO 1810Z...CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF PUERTO RICO AND REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NNW AT LEAST THROUGH 1802Z...AVERAGING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERWARD...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF LONG
PERIOD NNW SWELLS TO THE AREA WATERS. HOWEVER...THE PEAK OF THIS
EVENT IS ESTIMATED TO OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONDITIONS WILL START TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF WEEK.
THEREFORE...NWS HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE ISLANDS THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT AT 12 PM WEDNESDAY TO
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST WED FEB 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...A WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BREAK APART AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT
THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND TO FRONT TO HELP INDUCE VARIABLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...AS CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

EXPECT AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...TO HELP MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...PERSISTS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASING SEAS AND DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DECIDED TO PUSH UP
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO 8 AM THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCE OF THE
EXPECTED LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL IN SHIP OBS AND AT BUOY 41043
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA. IN ADDITION...SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE ALSO LIKELY...AS COMBINATION OF COLD (COOL) ADVECTION
BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULT IN
INCREASING AND GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE LONG PERIOD...NORTHERLY SWELLS BEGAN TO INVADE THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THESE SWELLS...COMBINED
WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TO CREATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 PM AST THU FEB 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH
THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE ON SHOWER COVERAGE...
VARIABLE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED WEST OVER THE REGION TODAY. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TOMORROW LIMITING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY BUT ONCE AGAIN THEY WILL INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
PASSING SHRA. IN ADDITION...SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOY 41043 CONTINUE TO REPORT LARGE SWELLS WITH
PERIODS OF AROUND 13 AND 14 SECONDS. LARGE...LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS...COMBINED
WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND GENERATE ONCE AGAIN DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 PM AST FRI FEB 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A NORTH-SOUTH RIDGE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL MOVE EAST AFTER THE WEEKEND AND WEAKEN. A JET WILL
REMAIN OVER PUERTO RICO FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWEST OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW ALLOWING
AIR OF A MORE TROPICAL NATURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS
THROUGH BRINGING ISOLATED...AT TIMES SCATTERED...SHOWERS
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE WITH IT...BUT PATCHES OF
MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
DRY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT MOISTURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SWELLS FROM THE NORTH DECREASE STEADILY FOR THE
NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS...BUT WINDS OVER THE AREA INCREASE AND WIND
WAVES WILL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 21/15Z.

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