SWIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-HINA) (TC 16S)

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
76.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 75.9E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZING AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201251Z WINDSAT
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 20KT UNFLAGGED WINDS WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
FLARING FOR THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
MOVING EASTWARD HAS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENCED BY
DEFINED CIRRUS BANDING IN INFRARED IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 30 knots

[HURAKAN]

21/0230 UTC 12.7S 76.7E T1.5/1.5 94S -- Southwest Indian

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 210644

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/9/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2009/02/21 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 77.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/21 18 UTC: 12.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/02/22 06 UTC: 13.4S/77.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/02/22 18 UTC: 14.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2009/02/23 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 15.7S/76.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 16.6S/75.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER CICRLULATION HAS
IMPROVED TO (QUIKSCAT 00H34), STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALWAYS LOCATED FAR FROM
THE CENTER IN THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND DUE TO
THE GRADIANT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS IN THE SOUTHEASTHERN SECTOR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVEL UNDER THE RIDGE,AND
IS EXPECTED TO IMPORVED WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLARWARDS OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK TO
MODERATE, WITH A MONSOON FLOW BECOMING LESS DIRECT, AND A WEAKENING
TRADRES FLOW UNTIL
THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW HIGH FORECASTED INTHE SECOND PART OF THE PERIOD.
SO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUITE PROGRESSIVELY, ON A
GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TRACK.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 75.9E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOW PERSISTANT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210046Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND FMEE INDICATE A 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION
TO FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING, THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS ESTABLISHED A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
OPTIMIZING THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SHOULD FACILITATE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 211226

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/9/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2009/02/21 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 77.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/22 00 UTC: 13.7S/77.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2009/02/22 12 UTC: 14.3S/77.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/02/23 00 UTC: 15.1S/77.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2009/02/23 12 UTC: 15.7S/76.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 16.2S/75.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 16.8S/74.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION IS GOING ON CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LARGE AND WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALWAYS LOCATED FAR FROM THE
CENTER IN THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND DUE TO THE
GRADIANT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS IN THE SOUTHEASTHERN SECTOR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVEL UNDER THE RIDGE,AND
IS EXPECTED TO IMPORVED WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLARWARDS OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK TO
MODERATE, WITH A MONSOON FLOW BECOMING LESS DIRECT, AND A WEAKENING
TRADRES FLOW UNTIL
THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW HIGH FORECASTED INTHE SECOND PART OF THE PERIOD.
SO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUITE PROGRESSIVELY, ON A
GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TRACK, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS.

[HURAKAN]

Stronger than being estimated? Me thinks so.

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/211800Z-221800ZFEB2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
76.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 77.5E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW PERSISTANT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
210046Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND FMEE INDICATE A 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION TO
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING, THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH HAS ESTABLISHED A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, OPTIMIZING THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS, COMBINED
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, SHOULD FACILITATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 210700) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 77.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 77.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 15.9S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.3S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.9S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 77.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 211608Z ASCAT PASS
AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM JTWC, KNES, AND FMEE ALL
INDICATE A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A
NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND AN EXTENSION
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK. AT LATER TAUS THE RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND TURN TC 16S TO THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW
HELPING TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A
TRANSITING MID LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 16S HELPING
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 24 THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND AS TC 16S TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
IT WILL BEGIN TO HINDER THE SYSTEMS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FROM TAU 24 TO
TAU 48 INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LOW OVER TC 16S AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 210700Z
FEB 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210700)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.

[senorpepr]

WTIO30 FMEE 211850

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/9/20082009
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2009/02/21 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6S / 77.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/22 06 UTC: 15.5S/78.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/02/22 18 UTC: 16.3S/78.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2009/02/23 06 UTC: 17.0S/77.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 17.6S/77.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 18.0S/77.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 18.5S/76.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN ON THE LAST
IMAGERY. FIX RELOCATED SOUTHWARDS ACCORDING TO MICROWAVE DATA WINDSAT
1232Z, F16 1407Z, AMSU 1607Z.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE; WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
GOOD, MOSTLY POLEWARDS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT LOW LEVELS,
INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED.
HOWEVER THESE LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKER, WITH A
MONSOON FLOW BECOMING UNDIRECT, AND A DECREASING TRADES WINDS FLOW (UNTIL
THE BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, FORECASTED IN THE SECOND
PART OF THE PERIOD). AT UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR SOULD INCREASE IN THE
NEXT 36H TO 4
8H.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEAST. THEN (AT 36H), THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.
.

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

Just been named. That image you've hotlinked Luis isn't very user friendly at near 7MB.

WTIO30 FMEE 220019

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/9/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)
2.A POSITION 2009/02/22 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 78.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/22 12 UTC: 16.1S/78.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/23 00 UTC: 17.3S/78.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/02/23 12 UTC: 18.1S/78.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 18.8S/77.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 19.5S/76.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 20.0S/75.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING, AND HAS BEEN NAMED AT 0000Z.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE; WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
GOOD, MOSTLY POLEWARDS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWEST. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED.
HOWEVER THESE LOW LEVEL INFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKER, WITH A
MONSOON FLOW BECOMING UNDIRECT, AND A DECREASING TRADES WINDS FLOW (UNTIL
THE BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, EXPECTED IN THE SECOND
PART OF THE PERIOD). AT UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR SOULD INCREASE IN THE
NEXT 36 H, AND
HINDER THE INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEAST. THEN (AT 36H), THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEREFORE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

[cycloneye]

That image you've hotlinked Luis isn't very user friendly at near 7MB.

Yes Peter,I deleited it.

[cycloneye]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 FEB 2009 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 15:18:45 S Lon : 77:43:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.2 3.4 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -79.3C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... t/adt.html

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Intensifying rapidly.

WTIO30 FMEE 220639

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/22 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 78.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/22 18 UTC: 17.4S/78.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/23 06 UTC: 18.5S/78.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/02/23 18 UTC: 19.3S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2009/02/24 06 UTC: 20.1S/76.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2009/02/24 18 UTC: 20.7S/74.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2009/02/25 06 UTC: 21.5S/72.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. LATEST MICROWAVE (TRMM 2338Z, SSMIS 0026Z,
NOAA 17 0351Z) IMAGERY SHOW AN EYE FEATURE AND THE VERY LAST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED EYE FEATURE TOO. SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND WE ARE IN THE MIMIT OF THE DVORAK
CONTRAINTS (T=1.5+ 24 HOURS AGO)
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE AT UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE; WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
GOOD, MOSTLY POLEWARDS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWEST. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED.
HOWEVER WINDSHEAR SOULD INCREASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 H, AND HINDER THE
INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
NORTHEAST. THEN (AT 36H), THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEREFORE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

[Chacor]

Here's that 0351 NOAA17 pass referred to in the advisory...

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 221235

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/9/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HINA)

2.A POSITION 2009/02/22 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.6E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/02/23 00 UTC: 18.1S/78.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/02/23 12 UTC: 18.9S/77.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/02/24 00 UTC: 19.5S/76.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/02/24 12 UTC: 20.3S/74.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2009/02/25 00 UTC: 21.4S/73.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2009/02/25 12 UTC: 23.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A CURVED BAND PATTERN
HAS GIVEN A T NUMBER AT 4.0 THIS AFTERNOON.
OVER THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY, A CONVECTIVE BURST HAS OCCURED NEAR THE
CENTER.

HINA IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT ALLOWS LOW WINDSHEAR. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER GOOD: EXCELLENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HINA
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT MORE LIMITED
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTOR. AT LOW LEVELS, INFLOWS ARE ESTABLISHED.
HOWEVER NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE BIT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD.
CURRENTLY, NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BRING HINA TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE WITH THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. SO, IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN
THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD NOT BE COMPLETLY
EXCLUDED.
UNDER THE PERSISTENCY INFLUENCE OF SHEAR AND THE ARRIVAL OVER AREA OF
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD, SOME SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TOMORROW.

STEERING FLOW SEEMS TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE (500/600 HPA) LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF HINA. CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK IS TOWARD THE SOUTH (MOTION/SPEED: 160°
/09KT).
THEN (STARTING PROGRESSIVELY TOMORROW), THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND GIVE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT TO THE
TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.