2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Guessing Game

[cycloneye]

There are questions about different aspects that we have to ask about the 2009 Atlantic Season so lets play the guessing game.

Note=This is not scientific,only guesses to have something to talk about while we wait for the season to start.You can answer the 20 questions I posted or if anyone may have more questions (Dont have to be 20 as I made) can post them and then your guesses below the questions.

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occured in 2003?

2-How many landfalls the U.S will have?

3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break fronm landfalls in 2009?

4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone?

5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?

6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?

7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)

8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems?

9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?

10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?

11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?

12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?

13-How strong the Azores High will be?

14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?

15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook?

16-Where will Ana form?

17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light?

18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?

19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?

20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?

My Guesses

1-No,Ana will form after June 1.
2-Three U.S, Landfalls.
3-There will be one threat.
4-Yes,the majority of systems will go to open waters without affecting any landmasses.
5-No,El Nino will not appear during the 2009 Atlantic season.
6-It will be Neutral.
7-Above Average.(Numbers after March 1)
8-Two Systems.
9-Three Major Hurricanes.
10-Average.
11-About Average.
12-Average Strengh.
13-Average Strengh.
14-No.
15-Lixon Avila.
16-In Bay of Campeche.
17-Average Shear.
18-To investigate disturbance that will be Ana in Bay of Campeche.
19-In Texas coast.
20-Yes.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occured in 2003?
Yes

2-How many landfalls the U.S will have?
5 or so

3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break fronm landfalls in 2009?
No- expect to be impacted by at least three significant cyclones (guess based on
past tracks)

4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone?
No

5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?
No

6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?
ENSO

7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)
Active

8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems?
3

9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?
5 or 6

10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?
Very Active

11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?
Well above average

12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?
Very strong

13-How strong the Azores High will be?
Pretty Strong

14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?
Some

15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook?
don't know

16-Where will Ana form?
In the southern gulf

17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light?
Light

18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?
Southern gulf or northwest caribbean

19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?
Florida coast

20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?
Slightly north

[Hurricaneman]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occured in 2003?
no

2-How many landfalls the U.S will have? 4

3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break fronm landfalls in 2009? no

4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone? no

5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?yes

6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?no

7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1) below average

8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems? 4

9-How many Major Hurricanes will form? 3

10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?no

11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?above average

12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?weak

13-How strong the Azores High will be? average

14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?many

15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook? stewart

16-Where will Ana form?250 mi south of Cuba

17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light?strong with maybe a weak period late august through september 15th

18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009? near Jamaica

19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.? from Miami to Savannah

20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?yes

[Ad Novoxium]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occured in 2003?
No. It'll form in the second week of June (7-13)

2-How many landfalls the U.S will have?
5.

3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break fronm landfalls in 2009?
No.

4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone?
Thin majority (about 1-2 systems difference)

5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?
No.

6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?
No.

7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)
It'll be active in terms of named storms, but it will fall short of hyperactive in terms of ACE (it'll be second only to 1980 in terms of ACE of non-hyperactive seasons).

8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems?
Two.

9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?
Four.

10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?
Yes.

11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?
It'll be slightly above average.

12-How strong will the Bermuda High be?
Slightly less than average strength.

13-How strong will the Azores High be?
More than average strength.

14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?
No. At best, one.

15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook?
Landsea

16-Where will Ana form?
Yucatan Channel.

17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light?
Average.

18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?
A system in the West Carribean (pre-Ana).

19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?
Coast of Florida from Carrabelle west to Mississippi for Ana. The warning will be a tropical storm warning.

20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?
Yes.

21-Will Ana finally become a hurricane this season?
Yes.

[cycloneye]

I have a couple more questions:

1-Which model will perform the best in 2009?

2-How many Homegrown systems will form in the Gulf of Mexico?

Answers

1-I stick with GFS.

2-My guess is that two homegrown systems will form in the GOM,if more systems affect the GOM coast,those will come from the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occured in 2003?
2-How many landfalls the U.S will have?
3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break fronm landfalls in 2009?
4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone?
5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?
6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?
7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)
8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems?
9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?
10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?
11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?
12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?
13-How strong the Azores High will be?
14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?
15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook?
16-Where will Ana form?
17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light?
18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?
19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?
20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?

1-No
2-2 Tropical storms, 1 hurricane, and 1 major hurricane
3-No, I expect to see a couple of hits from developiong TSs and 1 hurricane.
4-Yes but about 60% fish.
5-No
6-Neutral
7-active
8-three
9-three
10-Active.
11-Above average in Western MDR
12-Strong
13-Average.
14-Not as many this year.
15-Avila
16-W Carib
17-Average
18-W. Carib
19-West/SW Coast of Florida but from a weak/to moderate TS. from W. Carib heading NNE to NE ahead of a short-wave trough.
20-Yes

[AirNik]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occured in 2003?

2-How many landfalls the U.S will have?

3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break fronm landfalls in 2009?

4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone?

5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?

6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?

7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)

8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems?

9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?

10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?

11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?

12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?

13-How strong the Azores High will be?

14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?

15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook?

16-Where will Ana form?

17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light?

18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?

19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?

20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?

1.No
2.5
3.No
4. Not really 50/50
5.No
6.Neutral
7.Average
8.2
9.4
10.Active
11.Average
12.Strong
13.Average
14.No
15.Landsea
16.Northwestern Caribbean just off the Yucatan
17.Average
18.Area of disturbed weather in the central Caribbean
19.First TS watches/warnings will be from central Louisiana to Mobile Bay
20.Yes

[cycloneye]

Who else wants to get a crack on these questions or post new ones?

[wxman57]

You're all so sure there will be no El Nino this season, but the NCEP ensemble models disagree. they indicate El Nino conditions starting by July and continued warming through the fall. So, do you disagree with the projections or were you not aware of the forecasts for El Nino?

[KWT]

To be fair though they are nearly always too progressive and overdo both warming and cooling events from what I've seen. I do think given the sub surface profiles we will get weak El Nino but I doubt nearly as agressive as those models are forecasting.

[Ed Mahmoud]

You're all so sure there will be no El Nino this season, but the NCEP ensemble models disagree. they indicate El Nino conditions starting by July and continued warming through the fall. So, do you disagree with the projections or were you not aware of the forecasts for El Nino?

Joe Bastardi has been calling for a weak to moderate El Ninyo for a couple of months, and then starting to weaken for a subtly implied mother of all Northeast winters.

Anyhow, not a prediction, just law of averages, we've had our hurricane for this decade, and the big one will be a Cuba crosser from the SW Caribbean that menaces Morgan City to Panama City Beach.

Just a wild a**ed guess.


Anyway, if the El Ninyo comes, and we do have a quiet season (but 1992 was an El N season), I figure we could all handle one slower season, especially if we are rewarded with a wild Winter 2009-2010.

[Ed Mahmoud]

To be fair though they are nearly always too progressive and overdo both warming and cooling events from what I've seen. I do think given the sub surface profiles we will get weak El Nino but I doubt nearly as agressive as those models are forecasting.

I wonder how they did in 1997 when the E.N. just absolutely killed Dr Gray's forecast of an active season.

June and July were sort of active, 4 storms, including Cat 1 Hurricane Danny that flooded the Chevron Docks at Venice and destroyed all the cars of the rig hands in the Main Pass 255, drilling a well for contract driller ADTI on a Snyder Oil Platform, who begged the company man to let a few guys fly in with everyone's keys and move the cars to higher ground, but were refused. ADTI was tough boogies after the fact.

I also did a job for Baker Hughes a few weeks later on the Hercules 21 for Chevron. Similar story, cars destroyed, but Chevron paid everybodies deductible. Chevron is a much better company than ADTI.

Danny developed kind of fast, and not all the rigs had time to evacuate. I was home in Lafayette when the MCC that would become Danny moved through. I have rarely seen such frequent CG lightning in my life. And Rob Perillo correctly predicted the following day that thunderstorm complex would stall over the Gulf and take on tropical characteristics.

Perillo was good. I'm sorry to see our star, Dr. Frank, retire. His replacement, Dr. Norman has all the right degrees and experience, but he kind of dumbs down his forecast discussions, patronizing the audience in ways Dr. Frank never did.

[wxman57]

I'm not saying the NCEP ensemble forecasts of El Nino are correct. Last year, SSTs in the Tropical Pacific were as low as 1.5C below normal and the forecast was for SSTs 0.5C above normal by September. Turned out closer to 0.1 or 0.2C above normal (neutral). This year, SSTs in the Pacific are starting out at least 0.5C warmer than last year and the forecast is for 0.5C warmer by September than last year's forecast. So we could well see El Nino conditions by peak season.

AS for 1997, I have no idea how the forecasts did back then.

[cycloneye]

57,2004 was an El Nino year,(Although not a strong one) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... c_sep2004/ and look what happened with those many Florida landfalls caused by the position of the subtropical ridge that favored the tracks towards the Florida Penninsula.I think we have to wait until late April or early May to really see how things are evolving in the Pacific to then be sure about having El Nino or not in 2009.It only takes one system to do all the damage in an area,even if the strongest El Nino ever appears this year.

[Ptarmigan]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occured in 2003?
No

2-How many landfalls the U.S will have?
4, but I hope I am wrong and it is none.

3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break fronm landfalls in 2009?
No, but I hope I am wrong.

4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone?
I hope so.

5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?
Not likely.

6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?
Neutral and possibly a weak El Nino.

7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)
Above average likely.

8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems?
3 to 5.

9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?
3 to 5.

10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?
Active.

11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?
Above average.

12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?
Strong, but not unusually strong.

13-How strong the Azores High will be?
Strong

14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?
Probably at least one.

15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook?
Avila

16-Where will Ana form?
Caribbean

17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light?
Average

18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?
Caribbean

19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?
Florida

20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?
Normal

[Ptarmigan]

You're all so sure there will be no El Nino this season, but the NCEP ensemble models disagree. they indicate El Nino conditions starting by July and continued warming through the fall. So, do you disagree with the projections or were you not aware of the forecasts for El Nino?

It would be nice to see El Nino to get some well needed rain.

[boca]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occured in 2003?no

2-How many landfalls the U.S will have? 5or 6

3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break fronm landfalls in 2009? 3threats

4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone? 4 systems

5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season? Oct 6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates? neutral but borderline el nino

7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1) above average

8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems? 2

9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?4

10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not? active

11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not? above average

12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be? average to slightly above
13-How strong the Azores High will be? strong

14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks? no
15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook? Alvia

16-Where will Ana form? BOC

17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light? average

18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009? BOC

19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.? Florida Panhandle

20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position? normal position

[Tampa_God]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occured in 2003?
No
2-How many landfalls the U.S will have?
5-6
3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break fronm landfalls in 2009?
Sorry, but no
4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone?
It's pretty much split, with maybe 55% going into open waters
5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?
I expect a weak El Nino to form around the End of July and go on until the September
6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?
Neutral
7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)
Active, maybe Very Active
8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems?
4
9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?
5
10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?
Extremely Active
11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?
Above Average
12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?
Moderate. Weak in the first 2 months and becoming stronger through August and September.
13-How strong the Azores High will be?
Average
14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?
No
15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook?
Landsea
16-Where will Ana form?
Northern Carr., into the GOM, and hitting the AL/FL border
17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light?
Average in the first 3 months and weakening around Sept.
18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?
East of Cozumel
19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?
From Eastern Louisiana to the Big Bend region of Florida
20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?
Yes

[gigabite]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occurred in 2003?
YES
2-How many landfalls the U.S. will have?
4
3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break from landfalls in 2009?
YES
4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone?
NO
5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?
NO
6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?
YES TO LA NINA
7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)
BELOW AVERAGE
8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems?
1
9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?
0
10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?
NOT ACTIVE
11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?
BELOW AVERAGE SST
12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?
NONE
13-How strong the Azores High will be?
NO ANSWER
14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?
NO ANSWER
15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook?
NO ANSWER
16-Where will Ana form?
OFF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA
17-Will the Upper Shear be strong, average or light?
STRONG
18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?
OFF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA
19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA
20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?
MORE NORTH
REF:
monthly QBO
reduced hurricane activity for easterly or negative zonal wind anomalies

[wxman57]

1-Will Ana form before June 1 as it occurred in 2003?
No - 2nd week of June with "B" storm in August.

2-How many landfalls the U.S will have?
5, two of them hurricanes

3-Will the Eastern Caribbean islands get a break from landfalls in 2009?
A break? Meaning no landfalls? Unlikely. East Caribbean (Antilles to DR) will be hit at least once.

4-Will there be a majority of systems that go to open waters without affecting anyone?
No, not a majority. Probably 30-40%.

5-Will El Nino surge at some point during the season?
Tropical Pacific SST anomaly in El Nino 3.4 will rise to +0.5C by late September, but not enough to influence most of the season. Too weak.

6-Will La Nina stay in place or Neutral ENSO dominates?
We're transitioning to Neutral now. Bordering on weak El Nino by October.

7-Will it be an average season or an active one? (The 2009 Poll starts on March 1)
Defined how? If we count the 2 or more storms that were missed or not classified prior to modern satellite (and current naming of STSs), then the average season has closer to 12 named storms. I expect a slightly above normal number this year.

8-How many systems will form into Tropical Depressions and not turn into named systems?
One

9-How many Major Hurricanes will form?
Four

10-Will the Cape Verde Season be active or not?
Very ambiguous question. Define "active". Yes, there will be at least one storm that forms east of 30W, but I wouldn't say this will be an "active" Cape Verde season (meaning maybe 3-4 CV storms).

11-Will the Sea Surface Temperatures be above average or not?
In some areas yes, in other areas no. Slightly above normal in the MDR.

12-How Strong the Bermuda High will be?
Again, quite ambiguous. How do you define strength? Mean central pressure? Size? Scope? I'm expecting it to be a little weaker than normal.

13-How strong the Azores High will be?
Repeat of question 12? It's the "Azores-Bermuda" high. One system. Same answer.

14-Will there be many strong Saharan Air Layer outbreaks?
A few early in the season (late spring). Not during July-Oct.

15-Which NHC forecaster will do the first Atlantic 2009 Tropical Weather Outlook?
Franklin

16-Where will Ana form?
Western Caribbean

17-Will the Upper Shear be strong,average or light?
Defined how? Mean shear across MDR will likely be a bit below normal.

18-Where will recon go to investigate for the first time in 2009?
Western Caribbean.

19-Where will the first Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning be issued in the U.S.?
Right at the NHC in Coral Gables. Oh, not where will the warning originate? In that case, south Texas.

20-Will the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) be in a normal position?
A bit ambiguous. But with a slightly weaker Azores-Bermuda high, the ITCZ may be slightly north of "normal". This would lead to a slightly higher percentage of "fish storms".