WA: Tropical Low (Invest 95S)

[wyq614]

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Wednesday the 25th of February 2009
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST

There are currently no significant lows in the region. At midday WDT Wednesday a
weak tropical low was located near 12.3S 128.5E, 260 kilometres west of Darwin.
The low is expected to move generally westwards during today and Thursday and be
off the west Kimberley coast by late Thursday. It is not expected to develop
into a cyclone before Friday but may develop on Friday, or more likely on
Saturday, as it moves southwest towards the Pilbara coast. This system is likely
to produce significant rainfall in areas of the Pilbara over the weekend.

No other significant lows are expected to affect the region in the outlook
period.

The likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the outlook region in the
next three days is:
Thursday : Low
Friday : Moderate
Saturday : High

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[cycloneye]

ABIO10 PGTW 252230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/252230Z-261800ZFEB2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S 127.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND
BUILD DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED DEVELOPMENT IF THE LLCC MOVES ACROSS THE
KIMBERLY COAST INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) AS A FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

[Craiga74]

Shear is not too bad at the moment but it is expected to increase, hopefully not too much...would love to see this develop.



As for the water temp I went fishing day before yesterday about 35 miles off the coast of Port Hedland and the water temp was 31.9 degrees celsius so that definately won't inhibit development.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:50 pm WDT on Thursday, 26 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for Pilbara
coastal areas from Wallal to Exmouth.

At 3:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
210 kilometres west northwest of Kalumburu and
250 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay and
moving west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday as it moves to
the southwest towards the Pilbara coast. Gales are not expected in coastal areas
today or Friday but may develop overnight Saturday or during Sunday.

Widespread heavy rain is likely in the Pilbara from Saturday evening as the
system approaches the Pilbara coast, and significant flooding may result.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 125.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Exmouth and Wallal should listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Thursday 26 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 10:00 pm WDT on Thursday, 26 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for Pilbara coastal
areas from Wallal to Exmouth.

At 9:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
320 kilometres west of Kalumburu and
200 kilometres north northwest of Kuri Bay and
moving west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday as it moves to
the southwest towards the Pilbara coast. Gales are not expected in coastal areas
on Friday but may develop overnight Saturday or during Sunday.

Widespread heavy rain is likely in the Pilbara from Saturday evening as the
system approaches the Pilbara coast, and significant flooding may result.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 13.9 degrees South 123.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Exmouth and Wallal should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Friday 27 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Craiga74]

Would think in high water temps it would fire up a bit more than what BOM are predicting so far

[cycloneye]

ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZFEB2009//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S
127.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK QUICKLY OVER THE COASTAL REGION
BETWEEN JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF TOWARDS YAMPI SOUND. CONVECTION HAD
WEAKENED BRIEFLY AS IT MOVED OVER LAND BUT HAS BEGUN TO BUILD AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING A LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD OUTFLOW FOR THE
LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLCC MOVES OVER THE OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 3:35 am WDT on Friday, 27 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for Pilbara coastal
areas from Wallal to Exmouth.

At 3:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
250 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
435 kilometres north of Broome and
moving west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday as it moves
to the southwest towards the Pilbara coast. Gales are not expected in coastal
areas on Friday but may develop later on Saturday or early Sunday.

Widespread heavy rain is likely in the Pilbara from Saturday evening as the
system approaches the Pilbara coast, and significant flooding may result.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 14.1 degrees South 122.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Exmouth and Wallal should listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Friday 27 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

Where did "Tropical Low 13" come from? TLs aren't numbered, at least not officially. I know BoM occasionally references numbers but it hasn't in this case.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 270230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2S 123.3E TO 19.4S 117.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
262330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
122.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
124.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 122.4E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN TRACKING OVER LAND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER
WATER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE LLCC
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OULFLOW AS THE
LLCC IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER AUSTRALIA WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
TRACKING THE LLCC TOWARDS LEARMONTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE LLCC MOVING OVER WATER INTO
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280230Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIVE
TROPICAL LOW 09U
3:50 pm WDT February 27 2009
===============================================

At 3:00 PM WDT, A TROPICAL LOW [1002 hPa] located at 15.6S 120.9E, or 385 kms west of Kuri Bay and 295 kms north northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving towards the southwest at 8 knots.

Widespread heavy rain is likely to develop in the Pilbara from Saturday afternoon as the system approaches the Pilbara coast, and significant flooding may result. Please refer to Flood Watch advices for more information.

The low remains weak but may develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves towards the Pilbara coast. Gales are not expected in coastal areas during Friday but may develop late Saturday or early Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for Pilbara coastal areas from Wallal to Exmouth

Next Tropical Cyclone Advice is at 10:00 PM WDT..

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 3:55 pm WDT on Friday, 27 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for Pilbara coastal
areas from Wallal to Exmouth.

At 3:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was relocated by satellite and estimated to be
385 kilometres west of Kuri Bay and
295 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
moving southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Widespread heavy rain is likely to develop in the Pilbara from Saturday
afternoon as the system approaches the Pilbara coast, and significant flooding
may result. Please refer to Flood Watch advices for more information.

The low remains weak but may develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves towards
the Pilbara coast. Gales are not expected in coastal areas during Friday but may
develop late Saturday or early Sunday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 120.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 165 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Exmouth and Wallal should listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Friday 27 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

If that post two posts up is right, this is TL 09U, not TL 13, wherever that number came from.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 9:55 pm WDT on Friday, 27 February 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Exmouth.

At 9:00 pm WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
320 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
450 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Widespread heavy rain is likely to develop in the Pilbara from Saturday
afternoon as the system approaches the Pilbara coast, and significant flooding
may result. Please refer to Flood Watch advices for more information.

The low remains weak but there is a chance it could develop into a tropical
cyclone prior to making landfall. If the system does intensify into a tropical
cyclone GALES may develop in coastal areas late on Saturday or early Sunday.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.4 degrees South 119.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.Communities between Exmouth and Wallal should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Saturday 28 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

Can the topic title please be made accurate?