Carolina/Georgia WINTER STORM pseudo-DISASTER!?!?

[Ed Mahmoud]

South Carolina WINTER STORM DISASTER?


The Canadian sees an impressive winter storm, maybe even to Charleston, late Sunday!

Even the GFS seems to generally support that!





Thread title edited from just South Carolina, and "pseudo" added to Disaster, because I'd hope death and destruction will be minimal.

[JonathanBelles]

Is the word disaster really necessary?

[Weatherfreak14]

Actually, I was at a storm spotter meeting today on the possible outbreak with NWS. and gthey were talking about the chance to see maybe 2-8inches of snow as far south as Beaufort, SC

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is the word disaster really necessary?

Its all relative. How many municipalities in South Carolina own sanders, let alone snow removal equipment?

[JonathanBelles]

Is the word disaster really necessary?

Its all relative. How many municipalities in South Carolina own sanders, let alone snow removal equipment?

I wouldnt have used the word "disaster" if it was forecasted for Florida...and how do you call it a disaster, when it hasnt happened yet?

[Lowpressure]

Is the word disaster really necessary?

Its all relative. How many municipalities in South Carolina own sanders, let alone snow removal equipment?

I wouldnt have used the word "disaster" if it was forecasted for Florida...and how do you call it a disaster, when it hasnt happened yet?

I would tend to agree here the word DISASTER is bit dramatic over an event that has not even happened yet. Using the word potential would have at least prefaced it.
just my thoughts- which were not solicited.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There was a 'question mark' (?).


Anyway, surface temps on the coast near CHS may be a tad too warm, but the thicknesses seem to be our friend as far as at least mixing a little snow in there.

[CajunMama]

Possibly naming the thread "South Carolina WINTER STORM DISASTER threat??? would have been a better choice. But whatever it takes to get people to read a thread.

[shibumi]

There was a 'question mark' (?).


Anyway, surface temps on the coast near CHS may be a tad too warm, but the thicknesses seem to be our friend as far as at least mixing a little snow in there.

Well back in December our surface temps were too warm too, but that ULL gave us from 5-9 inches of snow anyway!

[srainhoutx]

Possibly naming the thread "South Carolina WINTER STORM DISASTER threat??? would have been a better choice. But whatever it takes to get people to read a thread.

Maybe Ed should have included GA,NC, and Mid Atlantic Areas as well for a "broader viewing audience"

[Ed Mahmoud]

Possibly naming the thread "South Carolina WINTER STORM DISASTER threat??? would have been a better choice. But whatever it takes to get people to read a thread.

Maybe Ed should have included GA,NC, and Mid Atlantic Areas as well for a "broader viewing audience"

Well, depsite the chance of a me scraping frost on the windshield this weekend, my hopes for one last joyful outbreak of Texas winter weather is fading as we enter the six weeks with the most rapid increase of day-length and sun angle.

Although I have consumed alcohol in Gainesville, I have never been to either Georgia or South Carolina, and have spent about two hours (with snow on the ground) about twenty years ago in Charlotte making a connection on Piedmont Airlines, which doesn't serve the Houston area. Like Allegheny Airlines, and Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Never even been to those cities. Now, a few years ago some marketing genius figured "Allegheny" was too regional, and now they are US Air.


But I have seen snow through terminal windows in Charlotte, NC.

snip from NWS Charleston

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON SAT NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK E TO COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT COLD CORE MID
LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW PRES SYSTEM SHOULD ASSIST A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
LINE OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TIMING AND SURFACE LOW PRES
PLACEMENT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN GIVING THE POWERFUL EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE SE STATES. WE THINK A SQUALL LINE
COULD BE A DAMAGING WIND PRODUCER AND CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES WHERE LINE BREAKS OCCUR. NO CHANGE TO REASONABLE
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MANY PARAMETERS
MUST STILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. NO CHANGE
TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK REGARDING TSTM POTENTIAL.

THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE VERY STRONG UPPER CUT-OFF LOW
SWINGING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY...WE MAINTAINED A
TREND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY
UNSETTLED DAY OVER THE AREA AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET FROM SW-NE
DURING THE DAY AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW -27C WITH ABSOLUTELY INTENSE VORTICITY PROGS. WE CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME KIND OF SMALL HAIL AT TIMES ANYWHERE MON AFTERNOON WITH SOME BUBBLY LOW-TOPPED AND STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION. DEFORMATION REGION P-TYPE PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
WITH -4C TO -7C 850 TEMPS BY EARLY MON...THERE COULD INDEED BE
PLACES SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA THAT MAY SEE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXACTLY WHERE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE PLIGHT OF THE UPPER LOW TO SHIFT N OR S STILL...LEAVE US IN A POSITION TO CONTINUE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NOT MUCH MORE. WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK A BIT. WARMER WEATHER PROBABLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

[Brent]

There was a 'question mark' (?).


Anyway, surface temps on the coast near CHS may be a tad too warm, but the thicknesses seem to be our friend as far as at least mixing a little snow in there.

Well back in December our surface temps were too warm too, but that ULL gave us from 5-9 inches of snow anyway!

This event reminds me of that, only further east this time(I got nada from that). I'm not getting my hopes up but cautiously things are looking better today.

[thunderchief]

Think Delta has enough deicing ready at Hartsfield???

hah!

[Brent]

Think Delta has enough deicing ready at Hartsfield???

hah!

LOL, a flizzard closes down Hartsfield.

[Brent]

0z NAM is historic for Central AL eastward into GA. Someone easily could see 6 inches or more if this verifies.

[CajunMama]

0z NAM is historic for Central AL eastward into GA. Someone easily could see 6 inches or more if this verifies.

and i bet you are hoping it's you!

[Brent]

0z NAM is historic for Central AL eastward into GA. Someone easily could see 6 inches or more if this verifies.

and i bet you are hoping it's you!

Sure, but I'm not getting my hopes up yet. Been burned too much. I'd tend to believe we'll be on the lower end of accumulations which would be fine with me after watching everyone around me get snow all winter.

[RL3AO]

Possibly naming the thread "South Carolina WINTER STORM DISASTER threat??? would have been a better choice. But whatever it takes to get people to read a thread.

Except during the tropical season of course. I don't see the thread "ATL: Invest 94L - Gulf Coast HURRICANE DISASTER?" going over too well.

[jinftl]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1125 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

AS FAR AS TMRW NIGHT`S SNOW POTENTIAL...THE 00Z NAM CAME IN WITH A
VERY INTERESTING AND MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY SOLN FOR THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE HUN CWFA.
21Z SREF MEAN AND GFS QPF FIELDS INDICATE LOW QPF /CONSISTENTLY LESS
THAN 0.25/ DURING THE ALL-SNOW TIMEFRAME.

THAT SAID...MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THE BANDED SNOW STRUCTURES SEEN
WITH THESE LOWS VERY WELL...THE GFS AND SREF MEAN ESPECIALLY. 21Z SREF
PLUMES FOR NRN AL SITES INDICATE TWO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH PRODUCE
MUCH HIGHER SNOW AMTS...BUT THEY ARE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS...WITH ALL
OF THE 19 OTHER MEMBERS CLUSTERED IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE FOR SNOWFALL. FEEL SOME
HEAVIER SNOW MAY VERY WELL BE IN THE CARDS SOMEWHERE...BUT THE
QUESTION IS WHERE...AND RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NRN AL/SRN MID TN ATTM.
&&



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
939 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

.UPDATE...
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
THE SNOW THREAT FOR SUNDAY... AS THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT RAIN
TURNING INTO SNOW... HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH A WARM GROUND IN PLACE AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THREAT CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND POST WINTER STORM WATCHES
OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS NEEDED.


Whatever snow event this turns out to be...NWS forecasts unanimously show a week ahead of rebounding temps....enough to melt whatever snow falls by lunchtime (if not right after sunrise in most spots) on Monday. Looking at the week ahead, forecasts show temps going from a high of 52 in Birmingham on Monday to a high of 71 on Friday, 56 on Monday to 74 on Friday in Montgomery, 51 in on Monday to 66 on Friday in Atlanta, and from a chilly 38 in Columbia, SC on Monday to 68 on Friday.

[jinftl]

Depends if you measure a weather disaster in terms of injury and loss of life and damage to property, agriculture, local economies both for the short- and long-term or use the term 'disaster' internchangibly with 'event'. And while I do believe there is an undeniable right of people to freely speak (and post), we always need to keep in mind that even with a "?", speculating on whether a disaster is pending for a certain geographic area may be a bit insensitive to those who may live in that area...it can be unsettling and worrying....even with a "?" to 'soften the blow'.

The biggest disaster that may take place is to those wanting to keep their cars clean from mud and muck....any slush that may fall will quickly become a muddy and dirty mess on the roads before lunctime on Monday in most areas as the March sun pushes temps into the 50s across northern and central Alabama and Georgia.

Possibly naming the thread "South Carolina WINTER STORM DISASTER threat??? would have been a better choice. But whatever it takes to get people to read a thread.

Except during the tropical season of course. I don't see the thread "ATL: Invest 94L - Gulf Coast HURRICANE DISASTER?" going over too well.