2009 Severe Weather thread

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
212 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 212 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MACON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DEERBROOK BY 225 PM CST...
PRAIRIE POINT BY 230 PM CST...
BIGBEE VALLEY BY 235 PM CST...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
224 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PICKENSVILLE...GORDO...CARROLLTON...
ALICEVILLE...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 219 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES WEST OF
MEMPHIS...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PICKENSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MEMPHIS BY 245 PM CST...
PICKENSVILLE BY 250 PM CST...
GARDEN AND MCMULLEN BY 255 PM CST...
ALICEVILLE BY 300 PM CST...
CARROLLTON BY 310 PM CST...
6 MILES SOUTH OF GORDO BY 330 PM CST...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
228 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MOSSES...HAYNEVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MEADVILLE...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 227 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BEECHWOOD...OR
NEAR HAYNEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DAVENPORT BY 255 PM CST...
STRATA AND SELLERS BY 310 PM CST...
NAFTEL BY 315 PM CST...
RAMER BY 320 PM CST...
GRADY BY 325 PM CST...
DUBLIN BY 330 PM CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 142 THROUGH 158.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
232 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ELMORE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLASSEE...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
WESTERN MACON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TUSKEGEE...MILSTEAD...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 227 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR AUBURN
UNIVERSITY IN MONTGOMERY...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MONTGOMERY...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WAUGH...TYSONVILLE AND PIKE ROAD BY 240 PM CST...
TYSONVILLE AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF VICTORYLAND BY 245 PM CST...
SHORTER AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF MILSTEAD BY 250 PM CST...
HARDAWAY AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF LIVERPOOL BY 300 PM CST...
DAVISVILLE BY 310 PM CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBERS 4 THROUGH 38.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
238 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 237 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO NEAR
PRAIRIE POINT...OR 13 MILES WEST OF ALICEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES NORTH OF COOKSVILLE BY 245 PM CST...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
242 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ALICEVILLE...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 240 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MEMPHIS...OR 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PICKENSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ALICEVILLE...MCMULLEN AND GARDEN BY 300 PM CST...
BENEVOLA AND MANTUA BY 325 PM CST...
9 MILES NORTH OF UNION BY 330 PM CST...
JENA BY 335 PM CST...
9 MILES NORTH OF KNOXVILLE BY 340 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37...

VALID 272040Z - 272145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37
CONTINUES.

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 37 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING.

A COLD INTRUSION CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...WITH THE LEADING SURFACE FRONT NOW
CURVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS
BORDER AREA INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...A MOIST RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE FRONT....AHEAD
OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH OF A
CAPPING WARM MID-LEVEL LAYER...WHICH MAY YET DRIFT A BIT FARTHER TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. BUT...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION BASED ABOVE THE DEEPENING
FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

..KERR.. 02/27/2009

[Brent]

That storm moving into Pickens County(very slowly) looks very impressive, nice hook.

Been raining all day here and only in the 50's. Don't think we'll make our 65 for a high and I'm not very concerned about tornadoes here. Flooding looks like a bigger issue but the ground is dry so I don't think there will be anything epic.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TUSCALOOSA...HOLT...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 314 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HOLT...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE WILDWOOD BY 330 PM CST...
BROOKWOOD AND 6 MILES NORTH OF COALING BY 335 PM CST...
BEVILLE LOCK AND DAM BY 340 PM CST...
VANCE...ABERNANT...WOODSTOCK JUNCTION AND 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE
VIEW BY 345 PM CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 76 THROUGH 97.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
325 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 322 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MANTUA...OR 13
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALICEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
UNION BY 330 PM CST...
KNOXVILLE BY 340 PM CST...
8 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNTAINBROOK BY 345 PM CST...
MOUNDVILLE BY 355 PM CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 52 THROUGH 62.

[RL3AO]

[tornado92]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CENTREVILLE...BRENT... NORTHWESTERN CHILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHERN HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 356 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF MERTZ...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF GREENSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MERTZ BY 420 PM CST... HARRISBURG BY 430 PM CST... EOLINE BY 435 PM CST... BRENT AND WEST CENTREVILLE BY 440 PM CST... CENTREVILLE BY 445 PM CST... ASHBY BY 500 PM CST...

[tornado92]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 420 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL AUTAUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHERN BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHWESTERN CHILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... EAST CENTRAL HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 417 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARRISBURG...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TALLADEGA NATIONAL FOREST...PAUL M GRIST STATE PARK...LAWLEY... PARNELL...MAPLESVILLE AND CHILTON COUNTY MOTOR SPORTS PARK

[Dave]

MONTGOMERY AL-AUTAUGA AL-ELMORE AL-CHILTON AL-
552 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CHILTON...WESTERN ELMORE...NORTHEASTERN AUTAUGA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 547 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DEATSVILLE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
NORTH OF MILLBROOK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLUE RIDGE...WETUMPKA...TALLAPOOSA RIVER WATER PLANT AND 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BOYLSTON BY 600 PM CST...
7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MITYLENE...7 MILES NORTHEAST OF AUBURN
UNIVERSITY IN MONTGOMERY AND 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLAUD BY 605 PM
CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 173 THROUGH 193.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
602 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL AUTAUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...UNIONTOWN...MARION...
NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VALLEY GRANDE...SELMA...
NORTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 600 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEWBERN...OR 6
MILES NORTH OF UNIONTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VALDEN AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF MARION BY 610 PM CST...
MARION JUNCTION BY 615 PM CST...
POTTER STATION BY 630 PM CST...
MEMORIAL STADIUM AND 7 MILES NORTH OF DALLAS COUNTY HORSE ARENA BY
635 PM CST...
VALLEY GRANDE...SELMA AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF PAUL M GRIST STATE PARK
BY 640 PM CST...
BURNSVILLE BY 645 PM CST...

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF UNIONTOWN...
SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
SOUTH CENTRAL HALE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST

* AT 638 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FAUNSDALE...OR
NEAR UNIONTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CONSUL BY 645 PM CST...
CENTRAL MILLS AND 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOGUE CHITTO BY 650 PM
CST...
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIVE POINTS AND 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ORRVILLE
BY 700 PM CST...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP
TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
643 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN AUTAUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VALLEY GRANDE...SELMA...
NORTHWESTERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MOSSES...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST

* AT 638 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF POTTER
STATION...OR 11 MILES WEST OF SELMA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MEMORIAL STADIUM...SELMA AND OLD CAHABA PARK BY 650 PM CST...
SARDIS BY 655 PM CST...
TYLER BY 700 PM CST...
BENTON BY 705 PM CST...
WHITE HALL AND MOSSES BY 710 PM CST...
LOWNDESBORO BY 715 PM CST...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/SERN AR AND EWD INTO PARTS OF MS/AL...

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 38...

VALID 280038Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 38 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES -- AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BEYOND THE 28/02Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 0038. THIS
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WW RE-ISSUANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS SAME AREA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AL AND VICINITY ATTM...WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MS WWD TO THE MS RIVER. WHILE A
SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MOST IMMEDIATE ACROSS
AL...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FARTHER W ACROSS MS AND
VICINITY AS QG ASCENT INCREASES THIS EVENING AHEAD OF COMPLEX
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED...WITHIN ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
PROGGED TO DRIFT ENEWD FROM NERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
RESULTING POSSIBILITY OF SOME NWD OSCILLATION OF THE W-E FRONT OVER
MS/AL...SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEARLY SURFACE-BASED STORMS -- AND
ASSOCIATED WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT -- APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS
ZONE OF POTENTIAL SHOULD SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRDS OF MS AND
AL LATER THIS EVENING...IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS
NOW ONGOING OVER CENTRAL AR.

..GOSS.. 02/28/2009

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2009

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

...GULF STATES...

AN EXPANSIVE MCS CONTINUES ITS MIGRATION ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF AL WITH TRAILING REGENERATIVE UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING THIS COMPLEX EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO
SERN AR. EFFECTIVE SFC BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO A POSITION SOUTH OF
CSG...ARCING TO NEAR TOI THEN NWWD TO SOUTH OF GLH ALONG THE AR/LA
BORDER. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
NOTED ALONG FORWARD FLANK OF THIS MCS NEAR SFC BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL
AL. LATEST THINKING IS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS AR INTO
NRN MS...PER RECENT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM LZK STRONGLY SUGGESTS ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THIS REGION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500J/KG. WITH TIME A
WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD EVOLVE A BIT SOUTH ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER NRN LA THEN TRACK EWD INTO CNTRL MS AND AL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOIST INFLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LLJ
OVER MS/AL STRONGLY SUPPORT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NORTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH COOL SECTOR
CONVECTION...HOWEVER ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT CAN MANAGE TO
ROOT NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL POSE AN INCREASED RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 02/28/2009

[Dave]

Watch 38 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 38

VALID 272340Z - 280040Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 167.

..GOSS..02/27/09

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

ALC001-005-007-011-021-023-047-051-063-065-073-085-087-091-101-
105-107-109-113-117-119-125-131-280040-

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB
BULLOCK CHILTON CHOCTAW
DALLAS ELMORE GREENE
HALE JEFFERSON LOWNDES
MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY
PERRY PICKENS PIKE
RUSSELL SHELBY SUMTER
TUSCALOOSA WILCOX
$$


ARC003-017-280040-

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY CHICOT
$$


LAC035-065-067-083-123-280040-

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
$$


MSC007-011-015-019-025-043-049-051-053-055-069-075-079-083-087-
089-097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-133-149-151-155-159-163-
280040-

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLAY GRENADA
HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA KEMPER LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LEFLORE LOWNDES
MADISON MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$