Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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Extremeweatherguy
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#361 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Feb 28, 2009 2:02 pm

Wow, I just realized that there is snow in the forecast for Pensacola, FL. Impressive!
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#362 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 2:23 pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
106 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-011906-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
106 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
MANY RIVERS. SOME FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. AS COLD AIR
SPREADS SOUTHWARD...THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW...MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN.
THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON SUNDAY
WITH POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT SOME ROADWAYS MAY BECOME
SLICK ESPECIALLY NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
REQUIRED ON SUNDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER.


$$
KSL
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#363 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 3:10 pm

18z NAM, significant snow from East Alabama into North Georgia, especially around Atlanta and points northeast.

Image

Image

Image

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
216 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-010445-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0001.090301T0400Z-090301T2100Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
216 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN BEGINNING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...THE RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. MOST AREAS TONIGHT CAN EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW. HOWEVER...AS SNOWFALL
CONTINUES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL ACUMMULATIONS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. USE CAUTION
WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL MEANS THAT SNOW WILL CAUSE
SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS ALONG
WITH SLIPPERY SPOTS ON ELEVATED RAODWAYS AND BRIDGES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HUNTSVILLE.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#364 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 3:43 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...

.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
AND EXPOSED SURFACES.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>075-078>084-
089>096-010445-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0003.090301T1500Z-090302T0500Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-
MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...
DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...
GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS
341 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ADVISORY AREA COVERS MUCH OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTH OF A LINE FROM CUSSETA TO PERRY TO
MILLEDGEVILLE TO WEST OF AUGUSTA.

LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE CAUSING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW.

THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE A
SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THIS PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A LAYER
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME OF THE SNOW TO MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. GROUND
SURFACES WILL ALSO BE WARM DUE TO THE RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.
HOWEVER...IF A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS IT COULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO
OCCUR ON ROADS.

PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON TELEVISION... RADIO...THE INTERNET OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO. IF THE STORM SYSTEM OR COLD AIR INTENSIFIES
FURTHER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#365 Postby breeze » Sat Feb 28, 2009 4:06 pm

1"-3" snow forecast for my area... wouldn't you know it - after I get a truckload of gardening
catalogs and start thinking "spring" - AND, the daffodils are now in full bloom! :eek:
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#366 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 4:07 pm

TWC has a wide swatch of 3-5 inches from Memphis to Birmingham, down to Montgomery, and up to Chattanooga with a small pocket of 6 inches between here and Birmingham, and then tapering to 1-2 inches in Atlanta.

For once maybe they'll be right.

HOLY OMG

4 inches:

Image

8 inches:

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#367 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 4:16 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AS THE COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.


ALZ011>015-017-022>025-034-010615-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.090301T0600Z-090301T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.090301T1200Z-090301T2100Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-BIBB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...CARROLLTON...
TUSCALOOSA...BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...
ALABASTER...CENTREVILLE
316 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION
UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES...ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES COULD BECOME SLICK.

ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS REMAIN AT THIS TIME.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MORE INFORMATION WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AS THE COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FIRST IN THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.


ALZ018>021-026>033-035>050-010615-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.090301T1200Z-090301T2100Z/
ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...CLANTON...
ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...VALLEY...LANETT...
LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...
FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...
TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...PHENIX CITY...
TROY...EUFAULA
316 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS REMAIN AT THIS TIME.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MORE INFORMATION WILL
BECOME AVAILABLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

$$

FOR THE FORECAST...PRECIPITATION ENTERS NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AS WE REACH MIDNIGHT.
THIS FOLLOWS THE CURRENT RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE LINE THAT HAS BEEN
TAKING PLACE AROUND THE 1300 1000-850 THICKNESS. WE WILL HAVE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM FOR OUR NORTHWEST
GROUP OF COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO
OF ACCUMULATIONS...AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM.

AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH OF THE CWA AROUND 12Z...THE MAIN
MOISTURE BAND WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
STATE. ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS...POTENTIALLY THROUGH
18Z OR 21Z AS THE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.

OBVIOUS CONCERNS ARE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. MODEL QPFS ARE QUITE HIGH
FOR THIS TYPE OF SNOW EVENT BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM
AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE FROM THE ONSET ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS. THAT IS UNLESS WE GET SOME HEAVY SNOW
BURSTS WHICH ARE POSSIBLE.

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM
SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH A GROWING CONCERN THAT A HEAVIER SNOW
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THIS EVENING.


SUNDAY WILL BE COLD AND SNOWY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES BUT THAT MAY BE
TOO HIGH DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DYNAMIC COOLING AND SNOW.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#368 Postby rsvh2000 » Sat Feb 28, 2009 4:40 pm

Midlands of SC here hoping for some.....trending towards a lower amount right now, but fingers are crossed for the system to explode.....
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#369 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Feb 28, 2009 4:51 pm

I doubt it is going to happen here on the Gulfcoast but after this Im looking forward to a hot and sunny spring break in 1 week!
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#370 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 4:55 pm

18z GFS, snow all day! :D

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#371 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 5:16 pm

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...FAR NWRN AL

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 282157Z - 010200Z

SNOWFALL/SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY SPREADING INTO NRN
MS...AND A RECENT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN TN NEAR
MEMPHIS. WHILE MDT/HVY SNOWFALL MAY BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...THE MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH THE SLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIALLY ANOMALOUS OVERALL SNOW TOTALS FOR THE REGION.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR THE KS/MO/OK/AR
BORDERS. AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL STATES...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS HAS
STRENGTHENED...EXTENDING WNWWD THROUGH NRN AL/MS...NWWD THROUGH THE
TN/AR BORDERS...AND NWD INTO WRN MO. THIS HAS REMAINED A FAVORED
AREA FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE/FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AS A 95+ KT 500 MB JET...OBSERVED
ON RECENT PROFILER DATA...NOSES INTO THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE SNOW IS
ONGOING...WHILE ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES ARE NOW SUBFREEZING.
ADDITIONALLY...TRAFFIC/WEBCAMS ACROSS NRN MS ARE INDICATIVE THAT A
TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED AS WELL...AND ACCUMULATION HAS
ALREADY BEGUN. INITIAL RATES...PERHAPS LACKING UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT...WILL IMPROVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEWD.
MOISTURE SEEN ON WV AND RADAR IMAGERY WILL THEN WRAP
AROUND...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z
INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOMALOUS
TOTALS OWING TO THE INITIAL/RELATIVE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.

..HURLBUT.. 02/28/2009


ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
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#372 Postby Dave » Sat Feb 28, 2009 6:04 pm

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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#373 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 6:49 pm

Image

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...HEAVIER SNOWFALL LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI WILL DRIVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT...DRAGGING COLD AIR AND
MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START AS RAIN THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
BY MIDNIGHT. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA
MOST LIKELY TO SEE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.

ALZ005>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-010600-
/O.UPG.KHUN.WW.Y.0001.090301T0400Z-090301T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0001.090301T0600Z-090301T1800Z/
LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-
LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
529 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTH ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. PERIODS OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY
TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. MOST AREAS TONIGHT CAN EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES. HOWEVER...AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES. USE CAUTION
WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#374 Postby MGC » Sat Feb 28, 2009 8:27 pm

Looks like it is snowing pretty good up in the Memphis area. Sure hope the ULL tracks a little west and south of forecast.....MGC
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#375 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 8:49 pm

MGC wrote:Looks like it is snowing pretty good up in the Memphis area. Sure hope the ULL tracks a little west and south of forecast.....MGC


Yeah, I noticed Memphis has raised snow totals again, now saying up to 9 inches possible in some areas. Seems to be a bit colder than expected also.

7.5 inches on the ground in Blytheville, AR!

Still in the mid 50's here but that's down from 70 earlier.
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#376 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Feb 28, 2009 8:52 pm

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#377 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 8:56 pm

Bullseye! 8-) 0z NAM:

Image

Sweet!

Image

Image
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#378 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Feb 28, 2009 9:09 pm

2 meter temps from AccuWx PPV half a degree C cooler than 12Z run at ATL, which could make all the difference between an inch or two of slop and real joy for the children of "Hotlanta".
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Re: Deep South Snow/Winterwx thread

#379 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 28, 2009 9:28 pm

0810 PM SNOW STANTON 35.46N 89.40W
02/28/2009 E8.0 INCH HAYWOOD TN AMATEUR RADIO

SOME TEN INCH DRIFTS.

0815 PM SNOW GILT EDGE 35.53N 89.83W
02/28/2009 E8.0 INCH TIPTON TN PUBLIC

Someone's gonna get a foot in that area, it's not even close to over yet.

Edit, WOW:

REST OF TONIGHT...BRISK. SNOW LATE IN THE EVENING
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
2 TO 5 INCHES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 13 INCHES. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
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Re:

#380 Postby jinftl » Sat Feb 28, 2009 10:07 pm

Is there a model run showing that? NWS Mobile has no mention of anything close to snow in Pensacola forecast updated tonight...actually no mention of any precip. Not too encouraging on the reliability of some models if there is still so much variety just 24 hours out....

NWS Forecast for: Pensacola FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Mobile, AL
Last Update: 3:21 pm CST Feb 28, 2009
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.
Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 31.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 52.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 33.
Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 60.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 68.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 73.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... TextType=1



Extremeweatherguy wrote:Wow, I just realized that there is snow in the forecast for Pensacola, FL. Impressive!
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