WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 13.2S 105.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 105.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.2S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.0S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.4S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 106.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE 35-KNOT
THRESHOLD HAS BEEN REACHED. A 01/2243Z SSMI/S IMAGE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE MAIN CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
TC 17S HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WEST OF AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 24, THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING AN ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL CAUSE TC 17S TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST.
TC 17S IS CURRENT IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
OUT, THE WIND SHEAR GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX, ALLOWING FOR
SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 011351Z
MAR 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 011400 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.
