Edit title- Long Island school cancelling snow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New NAM shows the rare confluence of winds more North than Northeast with a coastal storm. I think I can recall one real ice storm on Long Island, maybe 1977 or 1978. Sleet might briefly mix in as snow changed to rain, but actual freezing rain is rare.

Check out these hotlinked images which will change in about 22 hours.




Now, LaGaurdia isn't he perfect spot for what I am trying to show, but here is a meteogram, good until about Midnight.


Now, the NAM model may be on crack, and as I said, a genuine tree and power line snapping ice storm on Long Island is hard to pull off.


The GFS is a bit drier, and it has lighter precip changing from rain straight to snow, although it shows surface temps between 1 and 2º C at 2 meters, and because of the coarser resolution of the global model, maybe, just maybe, it would show some freezing rain if it could as well.


BTW, NAM also suggests some precip falling in SE New England with a gap between the 850 mb freezing/thickness lines and surface freezing line.

NAM loop with magic thickness and 850 mb temps, but not surface temps.

NAM loop with wind directions and surface freezing line, but not magic thicknesses




Edit thread title because rare and exciting ice storm seems unlikely, instead, not quite as rare, but equally exciting with fewer people freezing in dark homes, event seems likely.

[Stephanie]

When I was between 9 and 11, I was living on Long Island and we had a major Ice Storm. There were homes that didn't have heat for a week. It looked like a winter wonderland. I'm going to say it was around 1973 or 1974. I remember my father getting me up from bed and making me put on my winter coat. I saw the time and said that I was late for school. He then told me to look out my window. I never saw anything like it. We were fortunate that we only lost power for the day and we had a fireplace.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking more like mainly snow, not ice, for Massapequa/Amityville/Copaigue metro, but new NAM seems to suggest over a foot, maybe good for two missed days at St. Martin of Tours in Amityville, NY.


Not as many nuns these days, I'm sure Catholic school isn't as scary.

I'd like to get the kids into a Catholic school here, but the nearest one now is way up in the Woodlands since Cardinal DiNardo decided it wasn't worth fixing the hurricane damage to St Charles Borromeo. Actually, we are about equi-distant, but my wife's family is generally closer to St Charles.

I kinda wish the formerly Jesuit parish, St Ignatius of Loyola, would open a school. They're in Spring, and seem to serve a very wealthy community. Our parish tried to open a school, but couldn't get enough parents that could afford it. But they built a nice gym, and a school building, that are used for all kinds of meetings and classes.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snip for Upton/OKX AFD

AFTER SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING SUN...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST...WEAK RIDING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL SHUT DOWN
THE PCPN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE
THOUGH...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IN THE
EVENING. A STRONG COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IN THE EVENING...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING N/NE FLOW (COLD
CONVEYOR BELT). AT THE SAME TIME...A COUPLING JET STRUCTURE
BETWEEN THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET ESTABLISHES DEEP-LAYERED
LIFT AFTER 03Z. THIS RESULTS IN HEAVY SNOWFALL BREAKING OUT DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE 85H LOW AND WARM AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN SOME SLEET MIXING IN AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS FOR A MAINLY SNOW FORECAST BASED ON
MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS AND THERMAL FIELDS.

MODEL QPF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH FROM NYC AND POINTS EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH UP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. THIS RESULTS IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME.

DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE
POLAR JET...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM. A
DEVIATION TO THE EAST OR WEST BY HUNDRED MILES WOULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
AS WELL AS THE 18Z NAM WRF...ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN...WARNINGS WOULD
BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT.

SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THE AFT ON MON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE NW FLANK OF THE STORM COULD PRODUCE BLIZZARD
CONDITION AT TIMES. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

[Ed Mahmoud]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
642 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...MAJOR SNOWSTORM TO IMPACT TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST THIS EVENING...TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY MONDAY EVENING. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR FOR
A MAINLY SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE TWIN
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-012000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0004.090301T2300Z-090302T2300Z/
/O.COR.KOKX.WS.W.0004.090301T2300Z-090302T2300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
642 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE THIS MORNING WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AND
SLEET POSSIBLE FROM LONG ISLAND SOUND ON SOUTH AND COASTAL
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT...AND LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE
SOUND AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

AFTER A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE TRI-STATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE...HEAVY AT TIMES OVER ALL BUT
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. ENOUGH
WARM AIR SHOULD BUILD IN ALOFT THAT THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH OR
POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SLEET OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES
OVER ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES AND 7 TO 11 INCHES ON THE
SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND...TO 10 TO 14 INCHES IN BETWEEN...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CONNECTICUT AND LONG
ISLAND...LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THESE.
WITH SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO OCCASIONALLY 35 MPH...THERE WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW AS WELL...OCCASIONALLY REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO UNDER A
QUARTER OF A MILE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

$$

MALOIT

[Ed Mahmoud]

New GFS storm totals, and most of this looks like snowin NYC/N'Gland area



NAM


Fluff ratios may be less than the normal 10 to 1 early, and then as temps drop, especially at and above 850 mb, rations should get better than the normal 10 to 1.

So, averaging two models, and assuming average fluff factor is close to 10:1

8 to 12 inches for NYC, 10 to 15 inches for Amityville, 14 to 18 inches for BOS. Some magic place near Marshfield or Plymouth, North of the significant sleet mixing, but in the heaviest QPF area, may push 2 feet.


This is, of course, an amateur and unofficial forecast, and not endorsed by Storm2K.org

[Stephanie]

They're calling for 8 - 14 inches of snow in the Philadelphia area and surrounding counties in PA and New Jersey. This is a big one.

[Dave]

Storm Total Snow Forecast - NY NWS



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalsnow.php

[Dave]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1110 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...MAJOR SNOWSTORM TO IMPACT TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST THIS EVENING...TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY MONDAY EVENING.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE THE COLD
AIR FOR A MAINLY SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME SLEET MIXING IN LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-012230-
/O.COR.KOKX.WS.W.0004.090301T2300Z-090302T2300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1110 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST MONDAY.

AFTER A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...A STEADIER SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT FOR SLEET TO
MIX IN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES
OVER ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES AND 7 TO 11 INCHES ON
THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND...TO 10 TO 14 INCHES IN BETWEEN...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WHILE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CONNECTICUT AND LONG
ISLAND...LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THESE.

SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO OCCASIONALLY
35 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES
OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES.

$$

[Stephanie]

Storm Total Snow Forecast - NY NWS



http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalsnow.php

Okay, so where can you get that map on the NOAA website?

[Dave]

Stephanie, it sits on the New York, NY nws site..

Top News of the Day

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/

[Ed Mahmoud]

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z NAM- may meet the three hour 30 mph wind/low visibility criteria for a blizzard in Suffolk County, including at my Aunt Frances and Aunt Marguerite's homes in Bay Shore.

[Stephanie]

Thanks ai9d.

[Ed Mahmoud]

here comes no school...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 020209Z - 020615Z

HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA...NEWD INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. SNOW RATES ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO POSSIBLY
TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL BECOME COMMON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

WELL DEFINED WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH AN EXPANSIVE ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. LEADING EDGE OF HEAVY SNOW IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND WILL SOON SPREAD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS COLUMN
SATURATES. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OKX AND CHH SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN SNOW EXCEPT NEAR THE CAPE WHERE SNOW SHOULD SWITCH TO
RAIN BETWEEN 03-06Z AS WARM LAYER...850-750MB...SURGES NORTH ACROSS
SERN-MOST PORTIONS OF MA. BACK EDGE OF DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM CONVEYOR IS LIFTING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT SUGGESTING A
BREAK IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACROSS ERN VA INTO MD BY 06Z. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SECONDARY FORCING WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THIS REGION
ENHANCING SNOWFALL ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AT THAT TIME.

..DARROW.. 03/02/2009

[Category 5]

All classes cancelled at Rutgers tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

All classes cancelled at Rutgers tomorrow.

PAR-TAY!

[Ed Mahmoud]

...NASSAU COUNTY...
MALVERNE 10.0 700 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MERRICK 7.0 600 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER


...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
UPTON 12.2 700 AM 3/2 NWS FORECAST OFFICE
BRIDGEHAMPTON 12.0 800 AM 3/2 NWS COOP OBSERVER
MATTITUCK 10.0 700 AM 3/2 PUBLIC
SAINT JAMES 9.7 758 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ISLIP 9.3 700 AM 3/2 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
SAG HARBOR 9.0 800 AM 3/2 PUBLIC
SMITHTOWN 8.6 600 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CUTCHOGUE 8.0 500 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ORIENT 8.0 400 AM 3/2 PUBLIC
SAYVILLE 8.0 730 AM 3/2 NWS EMPLOYEE
LINDENHURST 6.8 600 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER

One bit of uncertain news from 1010 WINS radio

MASSAPEQUA PUBLIC SCHOOLS Long Island No Notification

SAINT MARTIN OF TOURS SCHOOL, AMITYVILLE Long Island No Notification

[Stephanie]

[quote
...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
UPTON 12.2 700 AM 3/2 NWS FORECAST OFFICE
BRIDGEHAMPTON 12.0 800 AM 3/2 NWS COOP OBSERVER
MATTITUCK 10.0 700 AM 3/2 PUBLIC
SAINT JAMES 9.7 758 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ISLIP 9.3 700 AM 3/2 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
SAG HARBOR 9.0 800 AM 3/2 PUBLIC
SMITHTOWN 8.6 600 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CUTCHOGUE 8.0 500 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER
ORIENT 8.0 400 AM 3/2 PUBLIC
SAYVILLE 8.0 730 AM 3/2 NWS EMPLOYEE
LINDENHURST 6.8 600 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER

I went to High School there.