WTPS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 06
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 150.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.6S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.3S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.6S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.6S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN TC 18P HAS MAINTAINED ITS STRONG
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM
MACKAY, AUSTRALIA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18P HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TC 16S WILL NOT
MAKE LANDFALL, HOWEVER THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL BEGIN TO
ADVERSELY AFFECT THE INTENSITY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 24 HELPING WEAKEN THE TC MORE RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.
