Severe weather possible March 7 to 10?

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45...

VALID 080227Z - 080430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF WW.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY -- AIDED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW -- IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME...AND NOW
EXTENDS FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO JUST S OF KANSAS CITY.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TRAINING NEWD INVOF THIS FRONT...WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH TIME...WITH 50 TO 60 KT
SWLYS NOW INDICATED AROUND H8 ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO. ALONG WITH
STORMS ONGOING INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE. GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN INVOF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE MOST
FAVORABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. EVENING TOPEKA KS RAOB -- JUST TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT -- INDICATES FAVORABLY STRONG FLOW /INCLUDING
85 KT SWLYS JUST BELOW H5/ AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CAPE IN EXCESS OF
900 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO WITH ANY STORM IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
FRONT.

WITH STORMS -- AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT -- LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS PARTS OF KS BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 08/04Z WATCH EXPIRATION...A
LOCAL EXTENSION OF THIS WATCH -- OR WW RE-ISSUANCE -- MAY BE
REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 03/08/2009

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
931 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CST.

* AT 927 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR KEOSAUQUA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BENTONSPORT/VERNON AROUND 940 PM CST...
BIRMINGHAM AROUND 945 PM CST...
STOCKPORT AROUND 950 PM CST...
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HILLSBORO AROUND 955 PM CST...
LOCKRIDGE AROUND 1005 PM CST...
ROME AROUND 1010 PM CST...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

[CrazyC83]

Surprised to see a few tornadoes as the dynamics didn't look conducive to them.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO AND INTO ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL AND VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46...

VALID 080426Z - 080630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 46.

STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING EWD OUT OF ERN KS AND
INTO NWRN MO -- ACROSS NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF WW 46. IN
ADDITION...STORMS JUST ENE OF THE WATCH -- OVER PARTS OF W CENTRAL
IL AND VICINITY -- CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ATTM FROM S CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN
MO...NEAR AND N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL JET
VEERS WITH TIME -- RESULTING IN MODEST ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS NERN MO AND INTO W CENTRAL IL WITH TIME...SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY THAT A NEW WW BECOMES A POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- TO
CONTINUE ACROSS WW 46...WITH PRIMARY THREAT TO REMAIN HAIL.

..GOSS.. 03/08/2009

[Dave]

Looks like it may get a little interesting around my area Sunday afternoon and evening...we'll see.

[Dave]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN MO...IL...AND
IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS
AND LWR OH VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY TROUGH NOW
DIGGING INTO THE WRN U.S. FROM WRN CANADA...WHILE RIDGE PERSISTS
FROM THE GULF OF MEX INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL
ACCELERATE POTENT KS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ENE INTO IL TODAY...AND INTO
MI/IND TONIGHT...BEFORE THE SYSTEM TURNS MORE E OR ESE INTO NY/PA
EARLY MON.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER N CNTRL MO SHOULD REACH SRN LK MI BY EARLY
EVE...AND UPSTATE NY BY 12Z MONDAY...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES
SE INTO THE TN...LWR MS...AND RED RVR VLYS. WRN PART OF BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO RE-FORM NWD ACROSS OK AND KS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
AMPLIFYING WRN U.S. TROUGH INDUCES LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN CO.

...MID MS INTO LWR OH VLYS...
LEADING EDGE OF DPVA/STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH KS UPR IMPULSE
HAS OVERTAKEN WRN EDGE OF SFC WARM SECTOR IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS
LIKELY HAS SUPPORTED RECENT INCREASE IN STRENGTH OF STORMS ALONG
COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING W CNTRL MO.

AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOW VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THE
KS VORT...WITH MID LVL WSW FLOW NEAR 100 KTS...AND 40-50 KT 0-1 KM
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 60 KT SWLY LLJ. PERSISTENCE OF LLJ HAS
ALLOWED FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE OZARKS
INTO THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY... WITH STLT
PW DATA AVERAGING AROUND 1.25 INCHES. ALTHOUGH RAOBS SHOW
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CIN...500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE
APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE IN WARM SECTOR GIVEN FORCED UPLIFT.

CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARM SECTOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...AND MID LVL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AS IMPULSE CONTINUES ENEWD. BUT COMBINED
STRENGTH OF FORCING AND WIND FIELD...COUPLED WITH EVEN MODEST
HEATING...SUGGESTS THAT EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR SVR WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLD TORNADOES
EWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH EARLY EVE.

AHEAD OF THE MAIN AXIS OF ASCENT...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SMALLER
CLUSTERS/SHORT BANDS OF STORMS ALONG AND N OF WARM/STNRY FROM NRN IL
INTO NRN IND/OH. DESPITE BEING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THESE MAY POSE A
MORE ISOLD RISK OF SVR.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 03/08/2009

[Shockwave]

I really like Nashville's NWS offices HWO...at least put something down OHX!

[Dave]

Out of Louisville KY office:

Moderate Risk For Severe Storms Today Over Southern Indiana
Scattered showers with embeded thunderstorms may develop by early afternoon as moist air arrives from the southwest. Late this afternoon or early this evening, a broken line or possibly several lines of convection may develop ahead of a cold front. Despite marginal surface based instability, strong deep layer shear may support large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes with any surface based convection. The highest threat will be over southern Indiana. The threat of convection with end across southern Indiana by early evening and by midnight across central Kentucky.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=22717&source=0

No mention of much except daylight savings time change over from Indy & Wilmington.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
923 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DOUGLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT.

* AT 923 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AVA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
AVA BY 930 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF SQUIRES...BRUSHYKNOB...GENTRYVILLE...DRURY AND VANZANT
ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
932 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DENT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN PHELPS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT.

* AT 933 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES SOUTH OF ST. JAMES BY 1015 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF EDGAR SPRINGS...LECOMA AND LAKE SPRING ARE ALSO IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 180 AND 199.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

That was definitely a big jump from barely a slight risk to a solid moderate risk...

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SERN MO THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 48...

VALID 081426Z - 081530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 48 CONTINUES.

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS MOVING EAST
AT AROUND 45 KT. STORMS WILL APPROACH THE SERN PORTION OF WW 48 BY
AROUND 1530Z. OTHER STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER SRN MO SOUTH OF WW
48. ONE POSSIBLE OPTION WILL BE FOR LSX AND SGF TO LOCALLY EXTEND WW
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OTHERWISE...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
15Z-16Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF ERN AND SERN MO THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL
IL.

DRY SLOT EXPANDING ENEWD AND MIXING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE INTO IL.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES AND LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND MID LEVEL JETS ATTENDING NEGATIVELY TILTED EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH
ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO LIKELY AS
THE LINE CONTINUES EAST.

..DIAL.. 03/08/2009

[Dave]

It sure is a jump this morning and starting to fire up all along the line in central MO.

[Dave]

I have to leave for a couple hours but will be back at least until the system gets close to my area this afternoon/evening.

[Bunkertor]

I have to leave for a couple hours but will be back at least until the system gets close to my area this afternoon/evening.

OK, office remains open

[Bunkertor]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1040 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DANVILLE ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 48...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY
ENEWD ACROSS WW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ALONG AXIS OF 90 KT MID LEVEL JET. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER NWD THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEWD TOWARDS NERN IL...LEAVING A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ENHANCED WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT FAST STORM
MOTIONS AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS...WITH SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
SUSTAINING A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE ADDITIONAL RISK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

[CrazyC83]

The probabilities there may be a bit high IMO (60/50, which is just short of PDS levels) - I don't see the threat being THAT great, but I could be wrong. If those numbers seem like an increasing threat, I'd expect at least 10H tornado at the 1630Z update.

[RL3AO]

[RL3AO]

The probabilities there may be a bit high IMO (60/50, which is just short of PDS levels) - I don't see the threat being THAT great, but I could be wrong. If those numbers seem like an increasing threat, I'd expect at least 10H tornado at the 1630Z update.

50/50 chance of a EF2+ tornado doesn't seem that high considering its a pretty big watch area.

[Bunkertor]

Watch area should be expanded some km eastwards