Severe weather possible March 7 to 10?

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

OHC039-051-069-082315-
/O.CON.KIWX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090308T2315Z/
HENRY OH-DEFIANCE OH-FULTON OH-
635 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN FULTON...EASTERN DEFIANCE AND HENRY COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST OHIO...

AT 631 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR THE
MEIJER STORE AT U.S. ROUTE 24 AND STATE ROAD 66 IN DEFIANCE. THIS
TORNADO IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO HENRY AND FULTON COUNTIES. THIS IS
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW IN A BASEMENT OR
SAFE ROOM!!!

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
SWANTON...
DELTA...WINAMEG AND COLTON...
BRAILEY...
ASSUMPTION...
NAPOLEON...
FLORIDA...
RIDGEVILLE CORNERS...
WAUESEON...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

LAT...LON 4119 8423 4142 8434 4142 8441 4143 8433
4151 8433 4162 8419 4171 8387 4136 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 233DEG 50KT 4154 8409

$$

BJS

[RL3AO]

[Dave]

Well that was interesting! Ai9d checking in and ok here.

The report came in from one of the 32 spotters & chasers on the road this afternoon and relayed to NWS Wilmington. I was south of town when the report went through. Drove up to the location but it came down in a cornfield then into a small woods..debris only and not much of that either.

Below is a picture of the location, yellow dot is my house - got a little close on this one, but everything is fine and storms have moved out of the county.

[CrazyC83]

Well that was interesting! Ai9d checking in and ok here.

The report came in from one of the 32 spotters & chasers on the road this afternoon and relayed to NWS Wilmington. I was south of town when the report went through. Drove up to the location but it came down in a cornfield then into a small woods..debris only and not much of that either.

Below is a picture of the location, yellow dot is my house - got a little close on this one, but everything is fine and storms have moved out of the county.

Interesting, at first I thought you were the one that did the report...is there video or photographic evidence of the tornado available? (That makes the difference between a confirmed EF0 and a possible missed report).

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TOLEDO...
NORTHERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 652 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
WHITEHOUSE...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 57 MPH. THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF TORNADOES.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WHITEHOUSE AND WATERVILLE BY 700 PM EDT...
HOLLAND BY 705 PM EDT...
PERRYSBURG AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SYLVANIA BY 710 PM EDT...
TOLEDO...ROSSFORD AND NORTHWOOD BY 715 PM EDT...
OREGON BY 720 PM EDT...

Too bad the Detroit airport TDWR radar isn't working or we would get to see the cell in high resolution.

[CrazyC83]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TOLEDO...
NORTHERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 652 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
WHITEHOUSE...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 57 MPH. THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF TORNADOES.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WHITEHOUSE AND WATERVILLE BY 700 PM EDT...
HOLLAND BY 705 PM EDT...
PERRYSBURG AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SYLVANIA BY 710 PM EDT...
TOLEDO...ROSSFORD AND NORTHWOOD BY 715 PM EDT...
OREGON BY 720 PM EDT...

Too bad the Detroit airport TDWR radar isn't working or we would get to see the cell in high resolution.

It does seem to be weakening, and Lake Erie should zap any remaining energy.

[Bunkertor]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

OHC039-051-069-082315-
/O.CON.KIWX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090308T2315Z/
HENRY OH-DEFIANCE OH-FULTON OH-
635 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

BJS

Radio stream from the area. Several TD´s

http://www.k100country.com/

[Dave]

"or photographic evidence of the tornado available? (That makes the difference between a confirmed EF0 and a possible missed report)."

No the spotter who reported it didn't take any photographs or a video. The area is in a picked cornfield and the debris I'd bet was cornstalks, but that is my "unofficial opinion on the debris". The area luckily is farm land - a mile south it would have hit the town.

[Dave]

Also thank you all for your concern, it is appreciated!

[Shockwave]

A funnel cloud was reported in Montgomery County, TN from the severe t'storm (which did have weak signs of rotation) that went through that county about 30 minutes ago. It is still Severe T'storm Warned and moving towards my location in about an hour (if it holds) and I'm finding the funnel cloud report to be quite unlikely with radar barely even showing signs of rotation.

[KWT]

Looks like the strong shear was enough in the end to produce some decent action it seems looking through this thread.

[Meso]

tornadovideos.net reports 15 or more tornadoes confirmed yesterday. There's going to be more chasing done today and interesting to watch the live video feed from some of the chasers.

Stay Safe

[Miss Mary]

March 8, tornado touches down in Ripley County/Sunman, Indiana:

http://www.wlwt.com/weather/18884569/detail.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

From the look of the new 12Z NAM for today, Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas along the warm front looks to be preferred.



Not super whammo impressive instability, but looks like plenty of shear...

NAM 7 pm forecast soundig for Tulsa


AccuWx PPV EHI says just NW of OKC, near Enid, near dry line warm front intersection should be prime severe territory.




Darned daylight savings, SPC won't update SWODY1 until 11:30 am.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That 56ºF and 32ºF dewpoint at 7 am shouldn't last. And otherwise, that looks like a pretty interesting sounding


8ºF jump in dewpoint the last hour in OKC, I'd say the warm front is passing.

The clouds mentioned by the SPC that may retard heating and reduce the severe threat are definitely going to be an issue...




ETA
some excitement alreay, at about 9:30 solar time...




But even with limited heating, maybe EWG will see some excitement.

[Ed Mahmoud]

First MD of the new day



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...NRN OK...SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091551Z - 091715Z

THE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS WRN
AND NRN OK LATE INTO FAR SRN KS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF SW OK AND
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO POSE A HAIL THREAT. A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL OK
LATE THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION FROM FAR WRN OK GRADUALLY MOVES NEWD
INTO THE MOIST AXIS. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S F NEAR
THE STORM IN WRN OK...THE OUN SOUNDINGS SHOWS AN ELEVATED MOIST
PLUME JUST BELOW 850 MB. THIS ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT THE ACTIVITY NEWD INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SFC TEMPS WARM...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND
THE CONVECTION MAY BECOME SFC-BASED RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION WITH TIME. THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 55 TO 65 KT
ON THE PURCELL AND LAMONT OK PROFILERS ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
/RUC ANALYZED 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C/ SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASING HAIL THREAT AS STORMS INTENSIFY. IF THE CELLS CAN BECOME
SFC-BASED...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 03/09/2009


ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA...

[Ed Mahmoud]

New SWODY1 bumps up tornado probs slightly for Northern Oklahoma, but otherwise looks a whole lot like the 8 am CDT SWODY1.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY...

...OK/KS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACK FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE FEATURE IS NOW
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS...AND APPEARS TO
BE HELPING TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
OK. THESE STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF RAPIDLY
RETURNING GULF MOISTURE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INTENSIFICATION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SWOMCD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...OK/KS INTO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY CLIMBING
THROUGH THE 50S IN THIS REGION AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME
BROKEN SUNSHINE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...70-80 KT MID
LEVEL WINDS AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION HELPING TO INITIATE NEW
THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY
OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS DURING THE 20-23Z PERIOD AND
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/LOW LCL VALUES AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION/ WILL ENHANCE THE RISK
OF TORNADOES IN MORE PERSISTENT CELLS THIS EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG AN
AXIS FROM OKC - TUL - SGF. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR EASTWARD AS
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL BY TUE MORNING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

..HART/SMITH.. 03/09/2009

[KWT]

Yet again looks like a pretty high shear set-up is on the cards, need to watch along the dryline for the lower level convection as this is where the greatest severe threat and the risk of tornadoes lies. Pretty hard to call which area is best to get some today mind you!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Henry Margusity, AccuWx's severe expert, expects an upgrade on the SWODY2, to a MODERATE RISK, centered in the MO/IL/IN area.

ai9D (sp?) may be busy again tomorrow.

[Bunkertor]

Henry Margusity, AccuWx's severe expert, expects an upgrade on the SWODY2, to a MODERATE RISK, centered in the MO/IL/IN area.

ai9D (sp?) may be busy again tomorrow.

Today maybe either. 10 or 15 % more hail and it would be the same setup like it was yesterday.