Coral Sea: HAMISH - Tropical Cyclone

[senorpepr]

From the above picture, you can see the intense pressure difference between the core of the cyclone and the outside bands.

The center observation shows a pressure of 957.4 hPa.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Luckily, it is now forecast to weaken AND miss land (mostly)! Hooray!

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneRobert]

This could be going annular.

[Squarethecircle]

Microwave imagery now suggests a fairly strong and round eye feature with no breaks. The overall structure and eye presentation seem to be improving, and the storm is taking on a more rounded shape.

[Rod Hagen]

Luckily, it is now forecast to weaken AND miss land (mostly)! Hooray!

It certainly looks like weakening, and it has been tracking east of the earlier projections, but the latest (11.18AM AEST, Monday 9th Feb) Australian Met track map makes it look like either a very confused cyclone or a very confused piece of modeling, with it making a 270º degree turn and heading back towards land as a cat 2! (the map below will update as time passes)



I'm not sure we can be convinced where this one will end up yet.

Rod

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 22.1S 152.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 152.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.4S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.7S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.5S 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.0S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 153.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 18P HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
ABRF AGREE WITH A 102 KNOT SYSTEM. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ENLARGING EYE WITH EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE TRACK
IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD AS TC 18P MOVES AROUND THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TC 18P. INCREASED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT TC 18P WILL REMAIN FAIRLY INTENSE THROUGH TAU
48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST
ADVERSELY AFFECTING THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.//
NNNN

[Grifforzer]

Track forecast from BOM a 180 degree turn?

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-ONE
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 4
4:50 PM EST March 9 2009
==============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [945 hPa] located at 22.8S 153.2E or 255 kms east of Yeppoon and 245 kms north northeast of Bundaberg has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 9 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a threat to exposed coastal and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay [including Heron, Fraser and Lady Elliot Islands]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 hours. In the 24 to 48 hour period the cyclone is expected to become slow moving and weaken slightly.

Damaging winds are expected to continue to affect exposed coasts and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Hervey Bay and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline and large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Yeppoon to Hervey Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Hervey Bay to Tewantin.

TC Technical Bulletin
=================

Hurricane Force Winds
---------------------
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
------------------
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
12 HRS: 23.4S 153.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 23.8S 154.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.6S 153.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 23.3S 152.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks:
DT based on VIS eye pattern with 0.8 degree embedded centre. DT of 5.5. CI maintained for 0.5 above FT. System is moving into increasing shear and likely to begin weakening in the 12
to 18 hour period. Track is dependent on weakening trend as low level circulation will feel low level steering influence and slow or reverse movement as the system becomes weaker

[Chacor]

Out of curiosity, where are you getting these advisories from? Becuase I'm not seeing anything on the BoM website with those exact words or in that format.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:42pm on Monday the 9th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Yeppoon to Hervey Bay. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island
communities from Hervey Bay to Tewantin.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the
Capricornia coast and at 7:00 pm EST was estimated to be 295 kilometres east of
Yeppoon and 245 kilometres north northeast of Bundaberg, moving southeast at 15
kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a threat to exposed coastal and island
communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay [including Heron, Fraser and Lady
Elliot Islands]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel
to the coast during the next 12 to 18 hours hours. In the 18 to 48 hour period
the cyclone is expected to become slow moving and weaken slightly.

Damaging winds are expected to continue to affect exposed coasts and island
communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Hervey Bay and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may
develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline and large waves may produce minor
flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by
this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible
and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 23.0 degrees South 153.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals

People between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between Hervey Bay and Tewantin should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Monday 09 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HURAKAN]

Still looking very good.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:43pm on Monday the 9th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING is current for offshore islands between Yeppoon and Double
Island Point. A Cyclone WATCH is current for the mainland coast from Yeppoon to
Tewantin.

The Cyclone WARNING for the mainland coast between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay has
been downgraded to a Cyclone Watch.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the
Capricornia coast and at 10:00 pm EST was estimated to be 305 kilometres east of
Yeppoon and 230 kilometres northeast of Bundaberg, moving southeast at 10
kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to maintain a southeast track
parallel to the coast overnight, before slowing down and beginning to weaken
during Tuesday.

Damaging winds are expected to continue to affect offshore islands between
Yeppoon and Double Island Point [including Heron Island, Lady Elliot Island, and
Fraser Island] during the next 24 hours.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about the mainland coast between
Yeppoon and Double Island Point during the next 24 hours, however they may
develop later.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline and large waves may produce minor
flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by
this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible
and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 23.2 degrees South 153.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 948 hectoPascals

People on offshore islands between Yeppoon and Double Island Point [including
Heron Island, Lady Elliot Island, and Fraser Island] should immediately commence
or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People on the mainland coast between Yeppoon and Tewantin should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure
about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Tuesday 10 March.


This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[RattleMan]

Check out this track forecast:

[Ed Mahmoud]

BOM expects it to decouple due to shear, with the weakened surface circulation becoming steered by low level flow or what?

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 009
WTPS31 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 23.3S 153.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 153.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.3S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.0S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.3S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.7S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTH OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE TC REMAINS VERY INTENSE AS CONFIRMED
BY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO ADVERSELY EFFECT THE SYSTEM AND
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AS
THE STORM WEAKENS IT WILL SLOW AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
TRANSFERS FROM THE DEEP LAYER RIGDING TO THE EAST, TO THE LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OF THE AVAILABLE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, TCLAPS DEPICTS THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR VERY
RAPIDLY AND WBAR DOES NOT AT ALL. THE OTHER MEMBERS ERRONEOUSLY
DRIVE THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD INTO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE TCLAPS SOLUTION BUT AT A MORE GRADUAL
RATE OF TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.

[KWT]

Seems like the two agencies both agree though that the system will start to steadily weaken over the next 36-48hrs, but for now it looks decent still.